(Rumor) Venables to Oklahoma

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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A&M just beat Alabama…again.

And that’s why they play the game! The reality is because of people like you…you get more credit for being in the SEC than you do any other conference. You can be a 2 loss team and still ranked in the top 5…and a 3 loss team and still squeeze into the top 10 from time to time. The SEC is a damn good football conference. But I think its reputation has gotten a little out of hand. People used to say the 7th best SEC team would be the 2nd best B1G team or something ignorant like that. The conference isn’t THAT strong. I think the big difference is when a Purdue upsets a team like Michigan State…we just call it an upset and move on. We don’t make any grand proclamations of how Purdue would dominate in a different conference. But when a similar SEC team to Purdue pulls off an upset of one of the higher ranked teams…that’s what people do.

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I don’t think it has anything to do with whether the SEC is a better conference. It’s the unrealistic expectations SEC schools put on their coaches. I’m not sure why successful coaches in other conferences want to enter that. That conference is completely nuts.

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The pay is also nuts. Its hard to make $2.5M a year or whatever, and then turn down $7M-$10M a year because “its going to be hard.”

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The money is crazy, but Brian Kelly had some down years at Notre Dame while he figured out a staff and recruiting. Notre Dame stuck with him. I hope he knows he won’t get more than a year of that at LSU before he’s on the hot seat.

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He’s taking over a talented football team that attracts tons of talented football players. If he comes out of the gates slow and needs to “build up” over time…he’s not the right guy for the job nor is he as good of a coach as he thought he was. For me personally I’m interested to see what happens when he has to play an actual conference schedule. He’s going to have to have his guys ready to play more often than he did at Notre Dame, where he only had a few games per year that he really needed to do much work for. Also, what I noticed as well is when they were playing the “lesser” opponents they got some Green Bay type officiating to help them along. He’s going to have 7-8 games a year now that he can’t count on that…and the other team is talented enough to beat him if his guys don’t show up.

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Which is why I have no idea why he took the job. I guess the money. Pride likely played a role too. I see it ending in him being fired. Kelly is not going to live up to LSU’s expectations.

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I can only believe Kelly thought he was maxed out at ND, and the ceiling at LSU was higher. But damn, that is something to say ND is a stepping stone job in college football. I agree, it could also be the money. I mean if he was making double at LSU, that’d be quite an incentive at age 60.

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According to reports its more like triple to quadruple the pay.

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No kidding.
Oklahoma has 8 conference losses in the last 7 years. There’s just no way that success can be replicated in the grind of the SEC.

I don’t agree with the A&M comparable because they were a long time mediocre school in the Big 12 so it was a low bar to draw from and were never a national power in the BCS era so what exactly were they losing? From a competitive standpoint, this was a really odd move for Oklahoma but it doesn’t matter in the long run anyway because Super Conferences are inevitable, sadly.

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This is… a lot of words to continue avoiding the point. Let me refresh “the point,” so we’re clear:

Oklahoma is dumb as shit for going to the SEC, because they are moving from a situation where they’re a favorite to win the conference and make the CF playoffs every year, to one where they are… not.

That’s it. That’s the point. If you have an argument that relates to it, let’s hear it. I mean… we can keep side-tracking about A&M, but I’m not sure what that proves? That a Big 12 team moving to the SEC can occasionally win an upset against the powers of the conference? How many SEC titles does A&M have? How many CF playoff appearances?

In the last 20 years, Oklahoma has won the Big12 13 times. They’ve been in their conference’s title game every year since it’s existed. How many SEC titles do you think they’ll take in the next 20 years? In the six years since there’s been a college playoff, Oklahoma has played in it four times (67% of the time). Do you think they’ll continue to make the CF playoffs two out of every three years after they join the SEC?

I hate to distract from that point (which, again, is “the point,”) but I do feel I need to respond to your jab about people like me being responsible for overhyping the SEC at the expense of other conferences. (You wound me with your words, sir.)

I do think the SEC is overhyped, as I’ve said, in that I don’t believe it’s all that great top to bottom. They’ve always had plenty of pushovers, and they schedule more cupcakes than any other conference. In many years, I think the meat of the B10 schedule is tougher to get through than most SEC schedules.

HOWEVER, when we’re talking about chances of winning conference titles and CF playoff appearances (oh shit, somehow we’ve returned to “the point”), the SEC has been much less competitive than other conferences, because the top handful of teams are consistently very, very good. In the last 20 years, the SEC title has mostly gone to Alabama and LSU, with occasional appearances by Georgia, Auburn, and Florida. (Maybe Oklahoma can be the new Auburn? Sure, that’s worth giving up your annual ticket to a playoff spot.)

This is not to say that things will always be that way. Nick Saban won’t coach forever. The college football world keeps turning just like the rest of the world. But put it this way: Oklahoma is coming from a conference where THEY are the Ohio State, and moving to a conference where there are 2-3 Ohio States already there that they’ll have to get through if they ever want to get back to the national prominence they had every year in the Big 12.

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Brian Kelly is going to go the way of Chip Kelly, which conflicts me because I like LSU.

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bitch slap GIF

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Apart from the whole “100 million dollars” thing, I thought Wojo actually had a good answer for this:

https://twitter.com/bobwojnowski/status/1465560375152332803?s=20

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I hate everything about UT-Norman, but I don’t think they were crazy to make the move. They were worried about getting left behind. With all the rumors of $70M/school in the SEC with the new ESPN contract, the Big 12 won’t be able to compete. I also think ESPN is attempting to systematically crush the Big 12 (as the most vulnerable P5 conference) so they can create a large conference they control. Texas and UT-Norman would be aware of this as they both have strong relationships with ESPN, Texas through the LHN and the paperclips through the ESPN tier 2 contract.

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LOL, I wasn’t familiar with “UT-Norman”

Totally agree, the Big 12 was dead and the vultures were circling. But in terms of their future paths to conference titles and CF playoff appearances, I think they would have been much better off joining the Pac 12 or the Big 10.

Maybe you can argue the Big 10 will close the gap with the SEC in the next decade in terms of elite teams at the top, and I actually think this is quite possible. But still, the Pac 12 is wide open. Oklahoma would’ve instantly been the favorite for that conference. (Not to mention, annual Oklahoma/Oregon games would be sweet.)

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But they’d face the same problem out there as they did in the Big 12, the gap in annual money will become too much to overcome. I think Pac 12 teams are paid just shy of $30M/year, that won’t be enough to keep up when the SEC signs their new contract.

As for the Big 12, everything’s gone right for them (us) since OU and UT announced they were leaving, especially if both Oklahoma State and Cincinnati make the playoffs. Which is actually why I think they might not, the powers that be won’t want it.

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That may be true for the next 2-3 years. But if you’re looking out over the next decade and beyond, and seeing a real college football playoff that matches a handful of power conferences with a few at large bids (whether or not you’re happy with that likelihood), I think there are smarter ways to go than relegating your program to the 3rd or 4th best team in the SEC.

The reason why Pac 12 revenues are lower is because the Pac 12 has fewer national brands and football powerhouses to sell TV rights to. USC being down for a bit really hurt them. But if Texas and Oklahoma had moved to the Pac 12, with Oregon and (at some point you have to think) a resurgent USC, all of a sudden you have a power conference that’s as valuable as the SEC or Big 10, or at least on the same playing field when it comes to TV rights.

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I really don’t think the Texas/Oklahoma realignment was about money. Those two programs, Texas in particular, are swimming in money. In a league that they founded and totally controlled, really.

I think it was maybe about something larger. Name one compelling Big 12 game outside Texas v Okla? Try as I may, I just can’t get excited about any other matchup in the league. Even with some good coaches, like Matt Campbell. The Big 12 was a regional league and increasingly irrelevant nationally. So I can’t help but wonder if they did it for exposure, and sure, they will probably make a little more money. Its funny, because IMO Texas signed its own death warrant when it wouldn’t listen to Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, and Texas A&M 10 years ago. The Big 12 has just made a lot of bad decisions, IMO, but I think a lot of it was driven by UT. And I think even now, if I had to bet, its UT that wanted to join the SEC moreso than Oklahoma. They probably think that its the league’s weakness that won’t allow them to win. Less national exposure, less chances to play with the best, etc. They look at A&M doing pretty good and wonder what they could do. A&M has to have a recruiting advantage telling recruits they get a shot at Alabama and LSU every year, not to mention Auburn, Georgia, Florida etc. I think it actually positions Texas to keep its in state prospects because man even Big Ten teams are raiding Texas now.

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My EXACT THOUGHTS!

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But that’s true of every conference, and largely based upon your region/the conference you root for. I’m not a midwest guy so I could care less about any Big 10 game save Michigan-Ohio State (and even that one the past few years has been disappointing). I wouldn’t say I care that much about any Pac 12 game, and the ACC? Clemson’s alright to watch, but not really against any of their ACC opponents. The SEC has the most elite teams at the top, but as has been mentioned multiple times in here, is pretty soft in the middle and towards the bottom.

The narrative pushed about the Big 12 to destabilize it - pass-happy conference that doesn’t play defense and doesn’t have good players - has been absurdly successful, but it doesn’t really hold up. Check out the P5 bowl records since 2010:

SEC: 71-44 (61.74%)
Big 12: 40-37 (57.14%)
Pac 12: 37-41 (47.44%)
Big 10: 44-49 (47.31%)
ACC: 46-59 (43.81%)

And while it’s true the Big 12 has fewer overall bowl teams, they’ve also been the smallest P5 conference over that time frame with only ten teams. The biggest problems the big 12 faced had nothing to do with their football, and everything to do with 1) their meager population base, and 2), their location. Because they’re in the center, any conference could take from them (as evidenced by Nebraska in the Big 10, Missouri and A&M in the SEC, and Colorado in the Pac 12).

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