Exactly.
Good teams win Super Bowls.
To be a Good Team, you need to be a Lucky Team.
I would say to win it all you need to be a good team AND a lucky team. We were a very good team last year, but we weren’t a lucky team.
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This is exactly why “points against” is a pretty poor metric for a defense. At least a couple of those games we gave up meaningless points. Which is why our DVOA rank was much better than our “points against” rank.
We WERE a top 10 defense until the injuries mounted up. The outlier was not the 10 and 9, the outliers were the larger numbers where we were so far ahead that it didn’t matter. Sometimes very good defenses give up meaningless points.
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Hence why i HATE when people use Scoring defense, or yards when ranking defense.
You have to use advanced metrics like DVOA.
2023 Lions were top 8 in both.
2024 before every one died. They were top in 8 in both.
Last year BARELY top 8 offense, middle of the pack defense.
That’s why i focus so much on the defense.
Offense only needs to take a small step forward to be a SB contender. Defense however, needs a MASSIVE leap.
I do agree that DVOA is a much better metric thank scoring defense/offense. It’s better than most everything out there.
However it’s still just a stat and doesn’t tell the whole story. Context is really important, and while DVOA tries to account for context and does so better than most metrics, it’s just inherently difficult. Not unless it’s combined with a lot more statistics, and even then I doubt it’s really possible to nail the right combo.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use it, of course, I just find that it tells much less of the overall story than we want. I find that true of most metrics. They can paint the bones of a picture, but context is just so, so important.
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Only game not close in 4th qtr out of those 4 was the Bengals game, we gave up 21 in the 4th qtr, the rest were loses or 1 score games.
Lions were the 9th ranked defense for DVOA. We were higher than that most of the year before injuries settled in. I bet Dan and Brad know this and are banking on Shep to take the next step.
And I agree that no metric is perfect, but we don’t have to use points or yards any more.
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so do you honestly think the Lions had the 9th best defense in the NFL last year?
Because I don’t
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They lost games were the defense played well for the 1st time in years and they gave up splash plays.
So the defense last year felt worse than it was.
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A range i would say is 10-14th over all. Definitely not top 8.
Yea DVOA 9th
EPA/P 13
Success% - 9th (which is PATHETIC since we played Minnesota 2x, Rogers, Cleveland, Cinci, Jamos)
2024 before the injuries lions were top 5 in all 3 metrics.
2nd half of 2024. All of 2023 and 2025 they averaged around 10-16th
Vs the offense virtually top 6 in all 3.
Last year success% was 12th because rushing game sucked.
So again offense slight issuesx defense MAJOR.
I thought this was an interesting chart of metrics for the defenses
Has us at tied for 14th for EPA
18th for Yds per play
17 for pts per drive
23rd for Explosive play rate allowed
16th for Down conversion rate allowed
I had to select each column to get the rankings, the one I posted is sorted by EPA
I think those rankings match the eye test watching the defense
yep- somewhere around there. they were a little worse if you weight more recent games more. But somewhere between 9th and 12th is about right.
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Are you sure? I’m pretty sure I remember that their DVOA was top 5 in the first half of 2025. Just looked it up – for DVOA they were 3rd ranked after week 11, 6th ranked after week 13.
The defense was not as bad as some people think. Injuries really hurt them.
What injuries last year? I the front 7 was the healthiest it has been in 3+ years. Yet Pittsburgh with its 70 yards per game rushing put a baby in the dline.
DVOA is adjusted as the season goes on.
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Even in todays “modern” NFL i’m a believer in running the ball, and stopping the run, and defense wins championsips. Maybe not so much in the regular season, but playoff football for sure. I’m not saying offenses don’t win they obviously do and more teams are built around offenses, but I’m saying IMO this is still the best way.
Lions did two of those things when they were most successful. Run the ball and stop the run. Stopping the run has been so underrated.
The reason our defense sucks isn’t because of talent or DC’s. It’s because of injuries.
Elite defensive players is Hutch. My mind is blown to those who don’t think so. Kerby, and now Jack. Branch had a down year otherwise he’d be there too.
Hutch, Alim, first round pick Tyliek, Jack, first round pick Arnold, Kerby, and Branch. Plus there’s AA, and Barnes, FA’s Reader, Reed, Amik, 2nd round picks like Paschel, and Rakestraw, and other later draft picks that re solid depth.
On paper they should have a great defense. But it didn’t work out. Not for lack of trying though.
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Ummm, Reed, Joseph, Branch to name a few. Alim not himself for sure. Top 5 tacklers.
Yes, that was my point. You said they were ranked 10-16th all of 2025. But they were higher than 10th most of the season. They finished 9th.
I get the secondary was banged up. But thats every team every year. Always,
Again front 7 was healthy. Gave up 200 on the ground to the Steelers.
Dvoa was gonna be inflated when the played 4 of the bottom offenses
Which other playoff teams lost both starting safeties, a starting corner, and fielded another starting corner nursing the equivalent of a hamstring injury?
I hear what you are saying. That doesnt excuse the ground game being a bottom 8 defensive unit. Or the pass rush being bottom 4. I cant blame injuries in the secondary for that kind of performance.