Dane Brugler just published “The Beast” today, which I think is worth the price of subscription to The Athletic by itself. I like to take his rankings and create my own board with all the players sorted by position and grade. Maybe you will appreciate it as well.
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Interesting to me that he only has 13 players with a 1st round grade, and 22 more with 1st-2nd round grades.
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If Benjamin Morrison is still there in the third round then I’m personally trading several picks to move up and take him.
Love the Athletic, thanks for sharing as I hadn’t gotten to this one yet.
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Playing Tetris with this…
Grey Zabel
Femi
T Horton
J Reed
N Stackhouse
M Dotson
Jalin Walker
And scoop Z back up cheap?
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What does each color mean?
Yellow means 1st rounder that we met with undercover in secret right?
Oversimplifying, but it looks like trade up for one of the DL blues, or down for two greens at DL/IOL/S. Kind of thing.
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Oh. It turns out Tai Felton actually has the unnecessary apostrophe in his first name, it’s Tai’shar Felton. Bumping him up a round. This is why I pay for the Beast.
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The draft almost feels tailored to us…
A 50-60 target X wr with upside…. There happens to be 4-5 that fit that bill from late 2-late 4?
A run stuffing DT? Appears to be 4-5 between late 2 and late 4
A versatile safety? Quite few in late 3-5 range.
An edge? Plenty of flavors expected late 1 late 2 with varying traits depending on whether we want a Femi or a Landon Jackson type.
Interior OL? Lots of late 1 choices that would glove for us.
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Trade down into round 2 then
Donovan Jackson, Jack Sawyer, Carson Schweschinger.
AG comp pick - Tory Horton or trade up for Oladejo
My mock sims are lockstep with Beast Brugler
Mukuba, Ransom, Malachi Moore all rated 3-4.
So that looks like AG comp pick …I was getting Ransom & Moore late round 4-5 that sucks
Those are all based on Dane’s evaluations. I love Dane for all the work he puts in (and the excellent contacts he has), but he’s not the greatest evaluator.
Yes, he deviated from your Big Board. And my ish-Big Board too. I can only conclude that Dane is having a down year. 
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Ha, yeah, the man doesn’t know what he’s talking about!
Nah they’re all different from my big board lol, but that’s OK. Actually I find this interesting, and it’s as good a place to talk about it as any… I did this exercise with @Jman, but if you go back and look at most boards pre-draft, it’s staggering just how wrong they turn out to be. Like here’s DJ’s final top 50 board before the 2021 draft:
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
- Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
- Patick Surtain, CB, Alabama
- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
- Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
- Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
- Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL/OT, USC
- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
- Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB, Notre Dame
- Trevor Moehrig, S, TCU
- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
- Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
- Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
- Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
- Zaven Collins, LB/Edge, Tulsa
- Javonte Williams, RB, UNC
- Jalen Mayfield, iOL, Michigan
- Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
- Azeez Ojulari, Edge/LB, Georgia
- Levi Onwuzurike, iDL, Washington
- Odafe Oweh, Edge, Penn State
- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
- Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
- Teven Jenkins, iOL, Oklahoma State
- Joe Tryon, Edge, Washington
- Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
- Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
- Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi
- Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
- Landon Dickerson, iOL, Alabama
- Liam Eichenberg, iOL/OT, Notre Dame
- Christian Barmore, iDL, Alabama
- Ronnie Perkins, Edge, Oklahoma
- Quinn Meinerz, iOL, Wisconsin-Whitewater
- Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky
- Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
- Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
- Elijah Molden, CB, Washington
- Jabril Cox, LB, LSU
And here’s about how it actually turned out, at least according to one of those redoing the draft posts:
(He didn’t want to get into an argument about the first 4 dudes, so he listed them in the order they were drafted.)
- (Really 1a) Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
- (Really 1b) Penei Sewell, Lions
- (Really 1c) Patrick Surtain, Broncos
- (Really 1d) Micah Parsons, Cowboys
- Creed Humphrey, Chiefs
- Christian Darrisaw, Vikings
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
- Rashawn Slater, Chargers
- Trey Smith, Chiefs
- Landon Dickerson, Eagles
- Nico Collins, Texans
- Nick Bolton, Chiefs
- Quinn Meinerz, Broncos
- DeVonta Smith, Eagles
- Alaric Jackson, Rams
- Jaylon Waddle, Dolphins
- Christian Barmore, Patriots
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, Browns
- Jaycee Horn, Panthers
- Alim McNeill, Lions
- Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
- Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets
- Talanoa Hufanga, 49ers
- Odafe Oweh, Ravens
- Tyson Campbell, Jaguars
- Sam Cosmi, Commanders
- Walker Little, Jaguars
- Deommodore Lenoir, 49ers
- Osi Odighizuwa, Cowboys
- Gregory Rousseau, Bills
- Camryn Bynum, Vikings
- Will Fries, Colts
- Milton Williams, Eagles
- Nate Hobbs, Raiders
- Paulson Adebo, Saints
- Malcolm Koonce, Raiders
- Najee Harris, Steelers
- Noah Gray, Chiefs
- Pete Werner, Saints
- Asante Samuel Jr., Chargers
- Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
- Drew Dalman, Falcons
- Trevon Moehrig, Raiders
- Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
- Rashod Bateman, Ravens
- Travis Etienne, Jaguars
- Jevon Holland, Dolphins
- Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
- Levi Onwuzurike, Lions
- Dan Moore, Steelers
So fully half of them fell out, which is pretty much the average every year. Do I keep that in mind while I’m making mine? Yeah, I do. Picking WHICH guys will rise up and into it is tricky of course and often depends on the fit with the team who drafted them.
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Theres a big difference from Big Board on draft day where you think they will get drafted or are rated.
And who you think will have the best careers.
It’s kinda 2 different things that you are cramming into 1.
So while you have Tory Horton, Grant, Oladejo, etc as round 1 guys…
Doesn’t mean you should draft them there.
Means you make sure you get them later and then look like a genius when they hit
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Well sure, you have to play the board, but to me that’s a separate thing. That’s figuring our your own board (which every team has and it’s VERY different than consensus), then comparing it to what you think will be the consensus board.
But the reason I used DJ is because he makes his big board based on his own evaluations. So he’s saying “these are the 50 best guys.” And that second list is the actual 50 best guys. No, you wouldn’t draft them like that, but only because the consensus board turned out to be wrong about them.
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Only 4 Lions players in the top 50, clearly Brad doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing.
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And I wonder if Barnes would have made it if he’d stayed healthy
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Good point
It’s kind of hard to rank players before they are drafted. The team that drafts the player can play a huge roll in how they develop….especially at the QB position. I mean if the Lions drafted a guy prior to Holmes and DC there was a pretty good chance they don’t work out. Kyle Van Noy comes to mind. When the lions draft someone now it’s expected that they will perform.
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