Tipping Point for Winning? How Do You Know if a Team is Good?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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The Lions were 3-13-1 last season. They were brutal to watch last season. Between Goff throwing the ball away on 4th down at least twice to the beat downs by the Seahawks and Broncos last season sucked. So why am I feeling like this club has turned a corner?

To me teams start winning when they have real NFL talent spready around the roster. And when a team has good coaching. Do that and you can field a good football team. Are the Lions doing that? Let’s look at position groups that are fixed OR look very interesting on paper:

  1. The OL features three viable Pro Bowl level guys in Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson and Penei Sewell. From there we have a very solid starter in Taylor Decker (Jeff Backus II) and then we have ROG Vaitai (the weak link). That is a great group. We also have viable depth in Matt Nelson as a swing tackle and Evan Brown in the mix. That is a GREAT group and a solid way to win games.

  2. We have a VERY interesting WR room now. Chark and Amon Ra lead the way while Jameson Williams heals. Josh Reynolds is a viable place holder and Kalif Raymond is a fine returner who can also actually play the WR position. That has the potential to be VERY good in 2022.

  3. RB. I don’t know how good Swift can be yet but his 2021 was quietly really good. 1,069 total yards in 13 games with 7 total TDs. Swift came back late but he was eased back into meaningless games. But he is really good. In 2 NFL seasons Swift has stayed over 4.0 YPC average while being an above average pass catcher. Jamaal Williams is a GREAT#2. Doesn’t fumble and is a ball of energy. It sounds like Craig Reynolds has a real shot at making the roster and he is a viable player too based on what I saw at the end of 2021. There are other options in the mix as well. But I like our top 2 RBs right now.

  4. We have Goff and Hock. I don’t like those position groups overall but I do like these players. I expect Goff to be a guy we can win with in 2022 if the other pieces step up. Hock is just a weapon I am glad to have on the team.

  5. Edge rushers. Aidan Hutchinson, Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara (when healthy), Paschal (as a rookie), Julian Okwara and Austin Bryant make me smile. Seems like a really solid set of edge players. Raw with rookies playing key roles but we have veterans in there too.

  6. Safety. I actually like this group. DeShon Elliott is a guy I am bullish on. I like Tracy Walker. We have very interesting depth in Iffy and Kerby Joseph.

Rome wasn’t built in a day and this team remains a work in progress. DT, LBer and CB remain works in progress. But other position groups are starting to look really good. Those are signs this club is closer to winning than some think in my book. Thoughts?

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Biggest question mark for me is DL…by a MILE.

Dan outright said we’d like to get more beef in the middle. It’s gonna be the focus of next offseason, as long as goff holds up

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Yep, and to me the line play is really when you can see a team become “good”.

Good teams can impose their will, and that starts up front. A team with a great d line forces the opposing team to adjust and takes them away from what they want to do.

A team with a great o line can maximize their play calling to create mismatches and exploit them.

A great team can say to her other side “here’s what I plan to do, now you try to stop me.”

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I’m really liking what I’m reading about the pass rush getting home. However, I remember those days as an offensive lineman. The defensive line always looks better without pads. Let’s see if they can continue the good momentum when practice gets more physical.

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There’s a ton of questions to be answered on this roster but it’s night and day from a talent perspective.

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Decades of let downs have made it easy to simplify my answer. In the standings, and playoff results. Anything else is a let down.

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Agree, the DL needs to take a step up. We have a lot of potential there but the proof will come in the regular season.

I’m not too worried about our secondary, I think they improved quite a bit and we have some reliable guys in Oruwariye and Walker, along with promising development from Parker, jacobs, and Okudah.

Linebackers I don’t really worry about because while they could be better, a good DL and secondary can mask a subpar LB group.

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Yes - and even with pads. When things are “vanilla” the D always looks better.

Defenses tend to look better in preseason games as well.

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Well, I like Brock Wrights skillset. A good blocker, but, don’t sleep on his ability to catch the ball, because, he will burn you.
Amani is looking like a stud.
I think Hughes leads an interesting cast.
I want to see what Okuda can do in this defense.
We have about as good backups as anybody in the league. Better than most!
Jerry and AJ did real good in their limited time, as UDFA rookies.
I’m a little higher on the Corners than most, it seems.
I believe we have quietly built a very solid defense, and one that will just be scratching the surface this season. I still expect them to be in the 15-20 range this year, but, next year?
Top 10. Not even joking.

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Yup → I really think our DBs are gonna be very solid, with GREAT depth.

I can see this too.
Next year (when we get my DT) → top 10 D
If Goff works out, top 10 Offense as well (might not look like it on paper because we will win with the trenches, but we’ll be highly effective).

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I like the post here! But I don’t feel that way about this defense yet. Too much unsettled for me. I think CB should also be looked at as interesting but far from fixed. We have one proven CB (AO) who hopefully has still not hit his ceiling. Past that Okudah and Will Harris are unknown guys. I am bullish on Mike Hughes and I see that as a solid signing. But after that we have young depth that is intriguing but low on actual experience.

This post isn’t about what we are lacking however. I am looking at settled position groups as an indicator of a turnaround. And we are starting to see Holmes’s work paying off. For example taking Sewell in 2021 seems like a no brainer/easy selection but the Lions could easily have gone WR DeVonta Smith or LBer Miah Parsons though. And I would have LOVED either of those picks at that time. But Sewell’s affect in the roster is clear now. He is a Pro Bowl-level guy who turns 22 in October. Had we drafted WR Smith the WR crew was still lacking even if we drafted Amon Ra still. There was no Josh Reynolds or Chark at that point.

Holmes roughly finished the OL with the Sewell pick and Sewell gives us a guy who can play LOT or ROT and that is fantastic. Holmes locked down Frank Ragnow too. Taylor Decker is locked down through 2024 meaning in 2025 Holmes will have a decision to make. Taylor will be 32 in 2025 when he is again free agent. Sewell can move to LOT at that point if we need. Vaitai is making under $10 million through 2024 too. 26 year old Ragnow is locked down through 2026. Jonah Jackson has two more years left on his deal. Jonah will likely be looking for a new deal after 2022 and if necessary it sure as hell looks like we can cut/move on from Vaitai giving Jonah that $. That is really, really smart by Holmes. Everything balanced and flexible with the OL group looking very solid for 2022 and beyond.

By drafting Jameson Williams and Amon Ra as well as signing Chark the Lions seems financially set at WR as locking down Chark (if he is good here) will give us a top 3 weapon group that is affordable overall if we look at Amon being under contract for 3 more seasons and Williams being locked down essentially through 2027. That is also well done.

Hock should be extended and as a TE his #s will be lower as a TE than a WR. If we extend Hock and get a bit of a deal on Chark for say 3 years that is a locked down weapon group.

RB seems like a value position for Holmes.

Goff has this season to prove what he can do here. Goff turns 28 in October and Jared is locked down through 2024. IF Goff shows us something this team is mostly locked down through 2024 as is at this point. That is amazing and is the stuff of turnarounds.

Holmes used the draft, contract extensions as well as free agents to mostly finish the offense. That side of the ball was closer to being complete (in NFL standards) and credit to Holmes for finishing the job on that side of the football.

I am not really down on the defense but to date this group has been living off bodies, not talent. Holmes has now invested a high 1st rd. pick (Hutchinson), 2 2nd rd. picks (Paschal and Levi) and 3 3rd rd. picks (Alim, Iffy and Kerby Joseph) as well as a 2021 4th rd. pick in LBer Barnes. Holmes isn’t turning his back on the defense but he is looking for value there. He locked down Tracy Walker (smart move) but added no impact free agents in 2022. Charles Harris was a hell of a find and will be an important role player in 2022.

I see hope for the defense. I see a synergy approach but I don’t see a ton of talent. IF Hutchinson has have a Suh-like impact that will be tremendous. In 2014 that defense had answers almost everywhere. Suh, Fairley (for 8 games), Ziggy, Jason Jones (a free agent), LBer Levy (a BEAST in 2014, his only amazing total season here), LBer Tullock (a free agent)/Tahir Whitehead, Slay/Mathis/Glover Quin with SS James Ihedigbo. James was the weak link there but he was a viable starter overall. Point is that defense had talent like the 2022 offense has talent. IF this defense can come together and somehow be ranked at say mid-point in the NFL (not a high bar) I can see this team having a solid record in 2022.

Think of it this way:
In 2021 the Lions were 25th in scoring. I can see that rising to 8-15 in scoring in 2022 depending on the health of Jameson Williams as well as Chark.
If the defense (with all the question marks and holes) can SOMEHOW go from 31st in points allowed in 2021 to say 18th in points allowed that would be a substantial improvement and the record will reflect that improvement.

To me with all this talk of settled positions on offense is it reasonable to see the offense gong from 25th in scoring to say 12th in scoring? I think so but that is also a substantial jump. Goff has done it before. He will now have a great OL and a BUNCH of weapons he didn’t have in 2021.

IF the Lions end up just outside the top 10 in scoring I think 2022 is going to be a LOT of fun to watch.

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A lot of versatility to this offense. We will have a few games where we open it up and score a lot, but we may have a meat and potatoes of ball control going on as well… Gonna be fun to find out.

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When your team doesn’t lose 6 games by 1 score or less.

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I think the team will begin to lose steam in the fall , BUT…we will get some guys back off the injured list and then start picking up a few extra wins with a second wind.

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How would any of us know?
We’re Lions fans.

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It’s not chicken and egg. They’re good when they start to win.

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That opener really is huge this year. If we can steal that one, and I think we may have an emotional advantage due to getting embarrassed last year, then a fast start looks like a decently likely scenario.

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Yeah I agree, though I don’t think losing would be the end of the world either. I trust this staff and team to bounce back and keep fighting. We could lose against Philly and still rip off a few.

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4-4 or so early on…then demolish the 2nd half of the schedule.
that’s my prediction.

If we beat the Eagles, we will go to the playoffs.

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This is the time of year where everyone feels good, everyone is high on the team, health is as high as it will be all season and the Ions are undefeated. And the focus is on whether an undrafted FA can “take the next step” and things like that. But in reality what is far more important is:

  • in this the right coaching staff? I know people love Dan, but this is a young first time OC. The offense underachieved all last season.
  • how is the play calling going to work (or is it going to work at all)?
  • since Goff has arrived he will now be on his THIRD different play caller in 18 games. Can he succeed like this?
  • Aaron Glenn has received a lot of praise, but the defense was still awful last season. Is it as easy as “add talent, stir, voila?” People love him but he’s a first time DC last year with the 31st ranked unit.

There are huge questions surrounding this franchise. The franchise really needs to continue to propel forward with the W\L record this year. Otherwise whether Brock Wright takes a step this year will make absolutely no difference.

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