The analytic balance of a trade-down is, of course, predicated on the value of lower picks.
But a large part of the value of lower picks is based on the fact that they are typically being made by better management.
Conversely, the value of earlier picks is based more on talent, since they are being picked by worse management.
And stockpiling picks is stockpiling inexperienced talent that needs to be mentored. This spreads out the coaches time and leads to a higher probability that any one of those picks will be a bust
The logic used to be that if you pick high enough, even if you have a have a CTE impaired walrus making the picks, you’ d have a hard time messing them up.
Well…not true! as it turns out…
Smokestack Drug Addict at #2OA
QB with poor decision making and leadership skills at #3OA
Fat lazy POS that was off for a year at #10OA
Not really good at anything TE at #23OA
TE with terrible, awful hands and worse lockerroom persona at #10OA
CB who was hurt at #3OA
Another TE at 8OA, because well, no one else does it so lets zig when everyone zags
LB at #21OA that can’t find the right hole…(here comes Big Natty w his Office meme…)
OG at 28 that can’t play OG, at least for us ( theme alert )
DE at #5OA that is maybe 3 years older than listed but has played football for maybe 3 years
Something called a Gosder Cherilus at 17OA
Ernie Sims at 9OA didn’t age well.
That’s 20 drafts and 22 1sts with really, 9 guys that were or are " yeah that worked out I guess" or better and 13 that range from tragically bad to not really what we were hoping for.
The AVERAGE draft spot over TWENTY years was pick 10.
The MEDIAN draft spot is #8 OA
13 Top 10, 7 in the top 5.
7 Picks 12-23
2 24+
And let me tell you, the results from Rd 1 are WAYYYYY better than Rd 2 in that same span.
If I can trade out of #1 and still get Hutch I do it. The “numbers” don’t have to add up, hell I’d take #2 and a 3rd this year and a 3rd next year.
The Belichick approach is, since no one is appreciably better than anyone else at making draft picks, the more picks, the better. He knows full well he’s gonna whiff on the same percentage of them as usual, but if he has more picks, he gets more good players. It’s simple math really.
We could just trade our picks for good, experienced players like Swilling or Damien Woody, that seems like a plan that couldn’t possibly not work out for us.
I think it is fair to say it depends on what draft you’re talking about, which pick you’re speaking of trading, and what kind of talent you’re passing on…
A lot of times the best time to trade down Is outside the top 15 picks because the talent difference between the 15th and 32nd isnt usually that great.
Also, it matters what you’re getting in return…
Are you getting a draft pick in another year draft as well?
I’d like to say it is a fluid situation. A lot of players that get drafted a round later or even several rounds later end up better than guys selected ahead of them.
Trading down is a pretty fluid concept year to year and how deep a draft is plays a large role. It also matters who is doing the picks and how good your scouts are. Also, who coaches the picks as well as how driven a player is to succeed.
I just watched on YouTube a round table with Deoin Sanders and several other NFL guys…
They all said the same thing: “where you’re selected in the draft does not matter”.
The meat and potatoes of the draft are round 2-3…and sometimes 4. Thats where your build your team in my opinion. No team is built by all 1st round picks.
I’ve brought this up in the threads where people are rooting for the Rams to lose.
There’s really not much difference at this point. They will be picking between 20-30 most likely.
There’s not much drop off in talent at that point. Sure drafting higher means you have more options in that talent level but it doesn’t mean your pick will be more successful.
If we’re picking 32 it really doesn’t matter. All that matters is that we make the right pick.
