That could be considered small school now days but 30 years ago it was guys like Phil Simms from Morehead St or Neil Lomax from Portland St. They came from everywhere. Doug Williams from Grambling or Jerry Rice from Miss Valley St Walter Payton from Jackson St.
Oh I know. And I think they would have transferred nowadays as well.
But I also think in regard to the āKwesi only drafts guys from big schoolsā thing I was originally responding to, Utah State and Mississippi Valley State fall on the same side of the equation.
It just seems like if a guy stays at a small school now there is usually a reason like Mike Green from Marshall last year.
Quinyon Mitchell was definitely an outlier in this era.
True. And I think there will be some cases of guys who transfer down and never transfer back up, like Green. And there will be a few guys like the Toledo kids who are loyal, but with how easy it is to transfer + the crazy money, I just think they will become true outliers from here on out.
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Kwesi did trade up aggressively and leaned toward Power 5 programs, but those choices werenāt crazy or out of step with league norms. The real issue was hit rate vs. cost if you ask me.
I read a stat somewhere that power 5 players make up 65-70% of the starters in the league. That suggests it is a good strategy to focus on power 5 schools. Kwesi is an analytical guy so I understand why he would go this route.
Trading up kills you when your target is a Miss. most Lions fans praise Brad for his trad-upās but thatās only because he hits on them more often than not. But the ones heās missed on are where his biggest complaints come from. If he starts missing more than hitting heāll be sent packing too.
Not to mention some of Brads biggest busts were small school guys. Maybe thereās something to learn from there.
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There is a lot more nuance involved in this number to say itās a good strategy.
For one, starter does not mean āgood pick.ā There are hundreds of early picks from big schools still starting somewhere that the fan base of the drafting team would call bad picks. Eric Stokes, Jahan Dotson, Zion Johnson, Quay Walker, Kaiir Elam, Van Ness, Broderick Jones, Manny Forbes, Deonte Banks, Mazi Smith, Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, Anudike-Uzomah, on and on, and thatās just off the top of my head from the past couple of drafts. Never mind all the busts.
Because more than 85% of overall draft picks are from P5 (now P4) schools. So that starting number is actually LOWER than the number of big school guys drafted. And that number goes up when youāre talking about day one and two, itās around 92% this century.
And because players from P4 schools get drafted at a higher rate, they get more opportunity TO start. Youāre gonna give your early draft picks more chances to fail, and since more early draft picks come from P4 schools, then they get more chances.
Finally, the list of great players from non-P4 schools is a staggering one. I expect that to change in the era of NIL+portal, but to date it would be foolish to turn a blind eye to them. I mean just look at the list of current guys:
Josh Allen, Maxx Crosby, Khalil Mack, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Quinyon Mitchell, Dion Dawkins, Puka Nacua (not P4 while he was there), Davante Adams, Alex Highsmith, Trey Hendrickson, Tyler Smith, Quinn Meinerz, Jordan Love, Ed Oliver, Bernard Raimann, Kevin Byard, Tucker Kraft, Gray Zabel, Aaron Brewer, Isaiah Likely, Tyreek Hill, Zach Sieler, Aaron Jones, Rashee Rice, Van Noy, Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Benford, John Franklin-Myers, Christian Watson, Kaden Elliss, Robert Hunt, Spencer Brown, Bobby Wagner, Milton Williams, Dallas Goedert, Taron Johnson, DaRon Bland, Kenny Moore, Jalen Coker, Taylor Moton, Teair Tart, Grover Stewart, Javon Hargrave, Ashton Jeanty, Kevin Dotson, Robert Spillane, Carl Granderson, Demario Davis, Rasheed Shahid, Nick Saldiveri, Darius Alexander, Quincy Williams, Jalyx Hunt, Jonnu Smith. Also Alec Pierce and Sauce Gardner graduated before Cincinnati joined the Big 12. And thatās just with a cursory check.
I think thereās a logical explanation for this. If youāre talented enough to stand out at a school where the talent around you isnāt making your job any easier, then odds are you could be really good. We see so many small school guys go to the Senior Bowl/Shrine bowl and really impress, many of them on that list above. Crosby, for instance, almost surely had no one else on his line taking the attention away from him.
Conversely, I think a lot of bigger school guys fail for the opposite reasonā¦ they get too much help. LBs free to run to the ball because theyāve got studs on the line taking up blockers. CBs who donāt have to cover for as long due to pressure. Edges who are always single-teamed, running backs with giant holes, etcā¦ Obviously they still get a lot of star players, but to me those go early. The mid-rounders are where you have to watch out. I mean, Alabama has like one hit from pick 60-150 from the Saban era. Itās really, really low.
JUST drafting from big schools is bad strategy imo. Itās pretty much the same thing as helmet scouting. We have too much historical data that says great players can come from anywhere. Just scout the guys as well as you can. To me, especially after the first 2-3 rounds, the upside is generally much higher on a guy from a smaller school. Changing that viewpoint based on a couple of picks that didnāt pan out from one GM is the definition of results over process, which is always bad process.
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I did mention the Toledo DBs as being an exception because they were loyal to the coach. That Toledo DC has now moved on to a big school. It did pay off for the kids as both might be 1st roun picks.
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Sad to lose the Mensa pun. Hopefully they replace him with Tag Johnson or something like that.
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Van Ginkle started at South Dakota and ended up at Wisconsin.
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He was also a top player in Miami under Floresā¦.
the connection was obvious.
Canāt give anyone in the front office credit for that one.
Damn. I didnāt realize a secret gem by Kwesi, had nothing to do with Kwesi.
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No Kwesi
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No you Kwesi
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Kwesi
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I donāt think this will ever happen, but Ray Agnew was one of 12 prospects listed for Vikings GM in an article in The Athletic today. The logic was that Kevin OāConnell is familiar with Ray Agnew because they crossed paths at the Rams.
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