Knowledgeable guy but damn is he arrogant. I’ve watched about 80% of the Packers snaps this year and I’m certainly not seeing what he’s seeing.
IMO he made one huge logical fallacy to discard the Packers abysmal defensive performance against the Eagles. He uses DVOA to suggest that when adjusting for schedule that the defense is a top ten defense. Statistically that is true.
BUT that’s not really how football works (or life for that matter.) The Peter principal is all encompassing and it is very possible that a middle of the road defense (which is what I believe GB to be) can both be elite against poor offenses and struggle against good offenses. I don’t know that end of year that the Vikings and Bears will definitely be bad offenses but they certainly were at the time they matched up with the Pack. If the Lions are the only team with an offense on the Eagles level that the Packers have yet to face, then it bears to reason that the Eagles game may be a better predictor of what we will see out of the Packers defense than the Packers DVOA will. Now obviously the approach I’m taking has a sample size of one so it’s not particularly sound either. I’m just in general not as sold on that defense being as elite as Packers nation thinks it is.
There’s a reason I put fantastic in quotes.
I don’t see the Packers scoring 30 points on the Lions.
It’s going to be an interesting one between two relatively even teams.
Yeah, I was a bit shocked when listening b/c it was an odd mix of solid football acumen and extreme homerism
I didn’t realize until listening that GB, at home, jumps to a lead quickly and then just keeps it.
14-0 minny and even at Dallas 21-0 both 1st QTR scores.
Only game they lost?! Losing at halftime 20-21…
I think they don’t adjust well for the second half. If we are within a FG or winning at halftime we should win the game.
We cant let them start hot as they have already this yr.
Imho…
I don’t see it either UNLESS the Lions gift them with a few TOs.
Every game is different. Every year is different. Too many variables.
Packers at home when they are healthy are a hard team to beat. Its been that way for my whole life.
The packers dont go undefeated so obviously they are losing some of those home games, but that doesnt mean any of them were easy.
Detroit has a huge rest advantage. They should have enough film on GB to see what they are trying to do. Lions should be pumped up, its the first NFCN opponent and its looking like a dogfight.
They (GB) ain’t that healthy right now, their injury list is quite lengthy and if Davante Adams does not play then their offense takes a big hit. Doesn’t make this game easy though, cuz they still have Rodgers and make no mistake, that guy is good.
And the Lions have a few guys hurting too. I don’t think Daniels will play, Diggs is not looking good either, and a bunch of other guys are kinda iffy: Amendola, Slay, Hand, and maybe Hockenson, although Hock is looking like he’s gonna be out there.
It’s a big game for the Lions, if you’re going to compete for the division then you gotta beat the other teams on the road at least once. Opportunity is knocking fellas, answer the door.
That GB analyst is a turd. Really overconfident. I thought the Cowboys had the Pack’s number (esp early in the game) but kept making Lionesque mistakes to give the game away.
Nice observation, Holmes!
I think we make a statement and put it on them.
Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
Make no mistake the Packers defense is very opportunistic. That’s why they are winning. They do a very good job at applying pressure on the QB. In fact their approach is similar to what Matt Patricia’s is. They rush few and drop many into coverage. The difference is that they apply a lot more pressure than the Lions do but are worse than the Lions at stopping the run. That pressure causes QB’s to make mistakes and they capitalize on them.
I think the key to beating them is running the football, screens and quick strike passes. Not to mention ball security.
Here’s an interesting stat for you. In the last 4 matchups vs GB the Lions didn’t punt once. I suspect that won’t happen this time. Their defense is far better then it was.
If we run the football well and don’t turn it over then I think we should win. We should be able to run vs the soft fronts they use.