I agree with most of this post too. I view RB as a protect the future move. It’s a long-sighted move that protects both the QB and Swift. KJ is hurt too much. I don’t trust his health at all. I view us as only having one RB on the roster, and KJ as an extremely unreliable insurance policy, rather than a rotational guy. I want a guy who makes them pay, if not accounted for.
You are absolutely correct in that they can easily stack against us, if we dont’ have WR help too. I feel like it’s easier to compensate for an average-ish OL than no WRs. Hope we can cap manage to bring back Jones and also bring in a rook with elite speed…then build out the line from there.
I’m with ya completely on the RB big picture. KJ is not a rotational piece anymore. Backup if that guy gets hurt. The main reason I don’t like going 1st round on a RB is the injury risk. If they beast you end up with a lev bell/‘Melvin Gordon sit who want a new contract after 3 years and start griping when we wouldn’t want to pay top dollar because their variance over let’s say the next 3 year span predicts to be large, due to injury risk and attrition.
Agree with entire post - especially this. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’d guess RB is the most injured positional group, by a wide margin. Definitely risk/reward factor in any move they could make.
Don’t forget MLBs or oversized Safeties who play like one! RBs and MLBs are constantly shooting a gap head first and almost blind at full speed. Not good for the head/neck.
To me, there’s a ceiling for that kind of team. Even when the Tennessee defense was playing really well in their 2019 playoff run, they came up against the Chiefs and it all came to a screeching halt. Same for the elite Jags D in 2017. Same for the Bears in 2018.
The Broncos and Seahawks were the last teams to win super bowls when led by their defense, and they were both QB’d by future hall-of-famers. And their defensive success was unsustainable over time, unlike offensive success.
On the flip side, Green Bay has been an offensive team for the better part of 30 years, have won 2 super bowls, and are always in the playoff hunt. KC has been an offensive team since Reid got there, have won a super bowl and are playing in their 2nd, and have been in the playoffs the whole time. The same was true of Philly under Reid, one super bowl, multiple NFC championship games, playoff hunt every year. Shanahan’s prolific offenses have made it to 2 super bowls. The Eagles offense was so prolific the year they won it, they did so with a backup QB. On and on and on.
But more than that, all the data shows that in today’s NFL, offense wins championships. Virtually every metric bears it out. The league has amended it’s rules to give the offense huge advantages, because scoring points is fun! I’m not sure I agree with it, but to deny the truth of it when it’s staring us in the face is a recipe for another decade of suck.
I really hope our staff understands that. Given their apparent emphasis on analytics, I think they just might.
They understand the traps of being one-dimensional. They understand the limits of success if you’re not able to attack every blade of grass on the field. Being committed to running the ball is an investment in building a complete team.
You’re right on the league’s efforts.
The league protects QB’s too much.
The league protects receivers so that bad QB’s can deliver a ball over the middle without getting them killed.
The league swallows its whistles in the playoffs, allowing holding galore on DT’s.
They declined in 2020 due to a lack of pass rush. They had a lot of injuries this last season. When you lose guys like Vic. Beasley and Jadevon Clowney and only have two active LBers then your going to struggle.
But in 2019 they were 11th in points allowed. In 2018 they were 3rd.
That was the greatest “what if” recently for me. They should’ve beaten the Eagles, who almost beat and probably should’ve beaten the Saints, who definitely should’ve beaten the Rams, who held the Pats to 13. I don’t think that offense could’ve held up that far but that team probably should’ve gone a lot deeper than they did.
Also for guys that want the Titans mold, I show you the facts that they lost to Lamar Jackson in the PLAYOFFS, where he is known to not be good, and that guys like these…
That’s another team built on defensive play and a run game. Last year the Ravens had the leagues best run game, a 24th ranked passing game and the 3rd best defense.
A running game is very important, but again it’s part of an offense. And the best offenses nowadays throw to set up the run as opposed to vice versa. The Ravens are unique because they have a unicorn at QB, but they use QB runs to set up their RB runs. But there are about as many Lamar Jacksons as there are Derrick Henrys. And neither won has won much in the playoffs.
Who both had elite offenses. Wentz almost won MVP Philly was so good, and Foles stepped in and hung 41 points on a defense that would go on to basically shut out the Rams the following year. That game was a smorgasbord of offense. Shanahan has led multiple teams to great offensive seasons, including that Niners team and the Falcons a few years prior, when Matt Ryan won MVP.
PHI had a top 10 run game and top shelf defense. Wentz and Foles both looked good in that offense because of that… I would argue that is was the top shelf run game and defense that allowed both QB’s to succeed.
Once PHI run game diminished in 2018 when it dropped to 29th in the league Wentz started to look like he wasn’t the long term answer.
My point is that if you look at Super Bowl caliber teams who don’t have a top shelf QB like PHI, SF etc … the way they won was with a strong defense and a strong run game. This took the pressure off their QB and allowed him to excel. In fact they were able to interchange their QB and still succeed.
Just look at how well NO played without Brees using this same mold.
Or how about the 2017 Vikings. They won the NFCN with the #2 defense and the #8 run game. Their QB’s were a combination of Sam Bradford, and Case Keenum. How much more evidence do you need than that?
And yet they ran smack up against that ceiling I keep referencing when they faced the red hot Foles and Philly. And let’s be frank, that team should have lost at home in the divisional round and would have had it not been for the Diggs miracle. And look what happend to Minnesota right after that; they immediately went to look for an upgrade at QB, couldn’t sustain the defensive success, and have been little more than above average ever since.
I think our disagreement here might stem from our outlook on what we’re hoping for from our Lions. I see a lot of fans who pine for the days of Jim Caldwell. Just be a competent unit who wins more than they lose, make the playoffs, then hope for the best. I am not one of them. I want to build a champion, and anything else is just wasting our time. Not saying you’re one of the former types but it explains the longing for a Tennessee-esque team, when ALL the data says it’s very hard to win with that sort of team.
The difference is your saying what you want and i am talking about how Dan Campbell said he wanted to build his team. He’s a guy who stated the QB shouldn’t win or lose the game for you. He stated he wanted to build a strong run game and defense. He essentially believes the QB should be a game manager.
I’m not hoping for a Titans type team. I just think that’s what he’s planning to build based off what he has said. I also believe that with him hanging his hat on Goff that this maybe the best approach and give us the best shot to win… it has worked for other teams.
Personally I could care less what approach he plans to take as long as he gets results. I’m sick of losing.
