Barring injury, what #'s do you think Goff will put up this year?
4100 yards, 22 TD passes, 9 INTs.
Only 9 picks?
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Lynn’s QBs have generally had few picks. Tyrod Taylor & Justin Herbert being the two primary examples.
If Goff plays like you outlined above and we run the ball as well as we should be able to we’ll be:
A:) a difficult offense to deal with
B:) the type of offense that protects a defense
C:) the type of offense that is built for closing out games
Pretty interesting.
4,350 with 24 tds and 13 ints were that 3 year average of Washington’s starting QBs under McVay (80% plus cousins)
In Cousins 3 years WITHOUT “Guru McVay” he’s averaged 4,100 yards over 30 tds and just 9 ints per year. His rating and completion percentage are up as well!!
Considering how much more success Goff had with McVay than cousins, and how much more perceived talent Goff started with (#1 overall vs mid round)
I’d say expecting Goff to be worse here with a QB friendly offensive scheme, might be short sighted.
In 3 of Lynn’s last 4 years running Chargers O, he had QBs averaging 4200 yards, 30 tds and 11 ints
I threw out 2019 when they played every game from behind and rivers arm was dead.
I expect-
4,100 yards with 26 tds and 11 ints. If they land a top tier WR in 2022… expect closer to 30 tds
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Another fun fact-
Stafford has 4 total seasons over 65% completions
Stafford has 4 seasons with 27 or more td passes
Stafford has ZERO sixteen game seasons with single digit interceptions. ZERO
Stafford has “5” seasons with a QB Rating under 90!
So an average Stafford year is about 63% completion 26 tds and 12 ints
Yet if we got that from Goff most would want to move on?
Staffords number pale in comparison to Cousins. More attempts, less completions, less tds, more ints and lower rating.
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I’ve stated this in a few threads.
I think he ends up with around 4100-4200 yards. Probably around 20-23 TD’s.
If the wheels come off I think 3800 yards would be the floor and if the stars align 4500 yards the ceiling.
But if we establish the run game like I expect us too then 4100-4200 yards seems about right.
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I went with a lower number of TD passes just because of the deficiencies at WR.
How about picks?
I think it’s going to be around 15 picks. I think our weaker WR group will help that number to be in the mid teens. Not to mention everyone is learning a new offense. So miscommunication is going to happen.
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I’m more in line with your projection. 9 seems low though I’d be ecstatic. I think he’ll be above 23TDs though. I just thing game script alone will necessitate higher passing numbers in certain games. In a lot of ways the more modest (within reason) Goff’s stats the better our team likely is IMO. That would mean our smash mouth plan is really working.
I agree I think 9 seems low. But I do think it’s plausible if Goff and the WR’s are better than expected but my gut is expect it to be in the mid teens.
As for the TD’s. We really don’t have WR’s who are big and physical in the red zone. Hock and Fells will help but …, my gut thinks that when in the red zone that we will pound it in whenever we can. So I’m expecting a decent amount of rushing Td’s and this should keep Goff in the low 20’s.
I think 4,000 yards is about right…unless our run-game sucks, then 4500+ is probably closer to the truth.
At 6’4" tall, I was curious about TW.
Tyrell Williams has caught 19 of 32 targets in the redzone in his past 4 years of play… with 6 TDs.
Williams is about the only one with any real physicality outside of our TE. But I’ve never felt that he uses his size to be physical and box out defenders. I have seen him win a few jump balls however but I wouldn’t call it a strength of his either. He’s no Golladay in that regards.
I wonder about his shoulder injury and how that might effect his play as well.
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I didn’t even know Fells was back on the team. LOL
I don’t expect Goff to put up huge numbers this year with these WR’s. I expect the game plan this year on offense to be more conservative and for Goff to be more of a game manager. 4K yards, 18TD’s, 10 Int’s.
4,100 yards 29 TD’s , 11 INTS. at an estimation.
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