Why I don't want a QB this draft an after Pick 2

This is what the past 20 years of rd 2 QBs have produced Odds are against Lions Hitting Just for backup late in draft OK .


In my opinion, taking a QB beyond the 1st round simply means the organization isn’t absolutely positive that specific player can be the future.
Any time you take a QB so early in the draft you need to be 100% certain you believe he can be the difference maker. Either right away, or down the line if you want to sit him behind your current starter.

It shouldn’t be until day 3 teams should be taking flyers on projects at the position.

I may be alone on this, but any time I see a QB mocked to the Lions @32 and beyond, I gag :neutral_face:.

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In fairness the picture shown is just for second rounders and title of the thread is after pick 2.

QB’s are found in the later rounds. Russell Wilson & Dak Prescott for example.

However I think there’s a strong argument for not taking one at pick 32 and round two in general.

Taking a QB round two means they’re a project. It’s difficult to draft a project in round two when you can get a starter there. The earliest teams should be looking at project QB’s is round 3 in my opinion.

Most NFL teams (not Detroit) have a high hit rate on picks in round 1 & 2. I think you use those picks to get starters who can help your team.

I’m all for taking a QB in the mid rounds and trying to develop him. But I’m not taking that gamble at pick 32 or 34.

I think if you really do not have faith in Goff then the Lions should go QB at 2OA. If they have faith in Goff then they should pass on a QB early and look for a developmental guy if they want to.


Add to that the steaming pile of third- and fourth-round QBs since 2000:

  • Giovanni Carmazzi
  • Chris Redman
  • Chris Weinke
  • Sage Rosenfels
  • Jesse Palmer
  • Josh McCown
  • David Garrard
  • Rohan Davey
  • Dave Ragone
  • Chris Simms
  • Seneca Wallace
  • Matt Shaub
  • Luke McCown
  • Charlie Frye
  • Andrew Walter
  • David Greene
  • Kyle Orton
  • Stefan Lefors
  • Charlie Whitehurst
  • Brodie Croyle
  • Brad Smith
  • Trent Edwards
  • Isaiah Stanback
  • Kevin O’Connell
  • Stephen McGee
  • Colt McCoy
  • Mike Kafka
  • Ryan Mallett
  • Russell Wilson
  • Nick Foles
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Mike Glennon
  • Matt Barkley
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Wilson
  • Landry Jones
  • Logan Thomas
  • Tom Savage
  • Garrett Grayson
  • Sean Mannion
  • Bryce Petty
  • Jacoby Brisset
  • Cody Kessler
  • Connor Cook
  • Dak Prescott
  • Cardale Jones
  • Davis Webb
  • CJ Bethard
  • Joshua Dobbs
  • Mason Rudolph
  • Kyle Luletta
  • Will Grier
  • Jarrett Stidham
  • Ryan Finley
  • Jacob Eason
  • James Morgan

QBs are a crap shoot anyways, but they’re nothing more than a lottery ticket after the first round.


I post this, not about rankings, but about who is (for the most part), presently available in the professional QB pool (obviously, sans 2022 draft picks).

The top guys, with few exceptions like pink elephant Tom Brady in Rd 6, all went in Rd 1 (which isn’t terribly surprising).

Lists aside, I want that 5th year option incase the pick pans out.

The success rate on drafting QB’s has to be what 20% max!? Obviously the team that drafts the QB is very important as well, especially coaching, scheme and player development. So many young QB’s are set up to fail.

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I’d rather miss on a QB, then miss on Tabor, Tavai, etc. in round 2.


Or name also any Lions 2nd rounder the past 20 years. Have we drafted any decent players in the 2nd round? Maybe Swift.

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Reason to reconsider: Tim Boyle


Maybe Swift. We’ll know whether he’s just another second round bust after this year. Thought we had something in Kerryon, but it turned out that we were just carrying on our second round futility.

Taking a 2nd-3rd round caliber QB at pick #2 suddenly won’t make them play better.

Willis has no business being even considered at pick #2.


If the pick pans out, he’ll get paid before the 5th year options comes into play. Worst case scenario we use it as a bargaining tool like the Ravens are with Lamar, but even then the difference as @Phunnypharm pointed out between the 5th year option and the tag is $23M to $29 million, which hasn’t proven to be enough of a threat to get the deal done.

(Also Jackson is a major outlier, virtually all of the 1st round QBs who ‘panned out’ have been paid well before their 5th year, and it’s probably no coincidence that Jackson’s his own agent).


On that list, Derek carr stands out. There are several players in that 2nd round list that were decent, middling starters or placeholders for a while. One could argue them to be well worth the price vs not having a serviceable guy. Overall though, not a great return if you’re expecting a long term starter from that pick.

In this particular draft, I could see Howell being there in the second. I’d still take a flyer if it were Ridder or Corral, but I’m sure it won’t be.


Word. I think he’s workable, and in the right situation could boost his level of play. Dude had good leadership abilities, as well as physical tools.

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For all the energy concerns you had with Goff last season, I think Carr is worse. He goes full turtle if he gets touched too much. He’s got a big arm like Stafford, but I see him shrinking the bigger the game gets somewhat like Cousins.

Goff on the other hand, shows his chip in bigger and later in the season games. It’s the gimme games he tends to sleepwalk through…


I appreciate the input. I haven’t watched a ton of Carr’s games, but I have not seen what you speak of (in my VERY limited sample size).

I probably won’t look into it much, unless it looks like we’re going to somehow acquire him. LOL.

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From Albert Breer:
“I don’t know if I’d say the NFL is generally low on Jimmy Garoppolo,” Breer wrote Wednesday. “More so, I think he’s seen in the class of guys like Jared Goff and Derek Carr. Fair or not, those quarterbacks are seen as players who succeed if everything’s right around them – but not the type who can lift teammates up and make up the difference for holes on the roster. That’s not an insult, either. But it’s not as good to be that guy as it used to be.”

That being said, for me its Carr>JimmyG>Goff


Agree with all of this, as well as your ranking.

said “steaming pile” has QB’s better than our back-ups.