Why taking a QB in round 1 could end in disaster…

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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As badly as some would like to see us improve upon Goff, (myself included) it’s really a risk vs reward, and I feel the risk outweighs the reward….

There have been 33 QBs taken in round one over the past 10 years…. Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, and Josh Allen… those are the sure things! Then you have Tua, Kyler, Luck, L Jax, T Lawrence, D Watson, and Fields…. If you assert all 7 are preferable, then you have 11 of 33… or a 33% shot at improvement.

But……

  1. Luck and Goff had very similar numbers over the 6 years Luck played, and similar playoff success too. The Luck retires so I’d give the edge to Goff…

  2. Fields- Aside from a 7 game stretch of playing shotgun tailback, I still have seen a 10 year star passer out of Fields. I wasn’t a Fields guy before, and 12 rushes a game got him hurt already, so I have no reason to jump on the bandwagon… Goff

  3. Watson has a winning record twice in 4 yours. Acted like a jackass over his contract. Tried to force a trade after demanding a massive extension… the. Got suspended for most of a year for 25 counts of sexual misconduct, and he sat out all year last year too. The pick price paid, and full guaranteed contract was insane. Browns will not sniff a SB still after all this…. Pass! Goff

  4. Kyler also “resting bitch faced” his way into a new massive deal. 25-30-1 career record isn’t inspiring. Team is getting worse, and his td production is regressing.

  5. Lamar- straight up I’d probably take Lamar, but not sure I’d do it knowing I have to give him 250M…. He’s a running QB that has 700 plus careers on his body, has 1-3 playoff record, and is turning 26 soon. That 50M per year deal with have big dead money through 28-29…. Not sure he lasts that long

6 & 7- Tua and Lawrence- okay I’d probably take either for sure. Maybe Jackson too.

To me that is a 7 out of 32 upgrade rate over Goff… success is just UNDER 22%!!!

Burrow and Tua are both bigger, and had more elite production and I’d argue at least comparable arms.

Allen, Herbert, Jackson, Lawrence, and Mahomes are all superior physical specimens. Arm strength, height, weight, speed (in most cases) these guys are test tube QBs…

  • that brings me to where it gets dicey…. Trading Goff early in the off-season could very well impact the locker room. He’s loved by his teammates, they are improving together, and he’s been to a SB… many may not like cutting Goff’s throat for a rookie and risking regressing. The 49ers could/should be the cautionary tale, and they simply got lucky they couldn’t pull off a trade.

So we save 20M trading Goff for a pick? though if we don’t want him to be our QB, and Ryan, Baker, Wentz, Darnold trades all busted, we may not get much…. With the 20M we free up, we then spend 10M on a veteran stopgap? Then we spend 10M on the #2 pick…. So we are still spending 30M at QB… we don’t get an impact defender and we added a 2nd?

  • since there is a 66% bust rate of these QBs…. We spend close to 30M at QB and have a better than even shot at getting worse?

I don’t see Young or Stroud as having the college careers or the physical tools of some of the home run QB picks.

Then factor it’s a virtual certainty that either Young doesn’t test, throw, measure well… OR HOUSTON IS TAKING HIM!

So do stroud and Levis remind you guys more of Darnold, Haskins, Baker type prospects or more like Herbert or Lawrence?

Once you alienate Goff he will likely demand a trade…. Now we are stuck with what we draft live or die…

  • we can likely stop talking about Bryce as hell either tumble badly or go #1
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Everyone knows why it could end badly. But it can’t make you afraid to keep trying. Fortune favors the bold.

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I don’t think anyone in here would agree to hitch our next 5 years to Levis right now? I like his film, and I would struggle with it.

I don’t think anyone in here believes that with the Lions current WRs and OL playing that Stroud would have a better record than Goff.

I don’t think Bryce will go in the top 10… if he doesn’t go #1- but I do think he goes #1. Texans have to don’t they?

With guys like Richardson, Nix, Hooker, Penix, McCall, Jefferson etc as later round possibilities… id rather fix the D, invest in an upside guy as our backup…

Goff and Bo Nix will cost 32.5M next year

Goff dead cap, #3 pick on Stroud/Levis, Dalton likely cost 25M plus combined.

  • I really wish the drsft was before UFA this year. It’s tough

What if you trade or cut Goff and sign a vet QB, but our guy doesn’t make it to us in the draft?

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But if none of us are in love with Stroud or Levis, and Holmes doesn’t rate any of them as highly as he rated Goff in 16’…. Then is it bold or stupid?

Holmes believed Goff was worth multiple firsts and the #1 overall… then by year 3 he’d had back to back spectacular seasons, had a 13 win season, and played in a SB… VALIDATING his belief in Goff…. If anything this year with Stafford and McVay kind of supports what happened to Goff in 19’….

We all agree he’s been saddled with shit here.

The Titans and Rams both decided Reynolds wasn’t an NFL caliber WR

Chark didn’t get the FA love C Kirk, Courtney Davis, or Allen Robinson did. The NFL must not see him as a legit WR2… J Williams wouldn’t be the starting RB on most teams talent wise. Swift has done nothing of. Ot for 9 weeks.

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again , who is the savior QB?

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That’s my point.

What if this is the Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins 2.0 draft?

Little 5’11” mobile guy goes #1….

Pocket passer surrounded by crazy OSU talent falls in the draft….

Toolsy guy with big arm, and solid wheels goes higher than his stats etc would have projected.

Young - Murray
Levis- D Jones
Stroud- Haskins.

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Sorry us was wrong it was 35 QBs not 33… I missed Tannehill and Weeden… so the success rate is now about 20%

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For me, it’s Bryce Young. But that’s just my opinion and I know others don’t agree. But this isn’t about a specific QB, this is about avoiding drafting QB as a philosophy which is something I greatly disagree with.

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Said Pliny the Elder as he rowed toward erupting Vesuvius

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Maybe the BOLD move is to build around Goff?!?!?

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Great beer.

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Hitting on a QB with that first pick though…

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This is why Goff is our man next year, with a good, late round project QB

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The only QB’s who pan-out are the QB’s who were slated to go higher but fell due to some reason.
Russell Wilson, Dak, Hurts, etc.

Find a QB that should have been drafted sooner but for some reason fell.

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That would be Hooker because of age and injury

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Nah I think we should start to add bad players instead.

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Pliny the Elder?

Russian-River-Pliny-the-Elder-Full
Russian-River-Pliny-the-Elder-Full683×1024 101 KB

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That’s gorgeous.

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Because 3 out of 4 first round QB’s don’t come anywhere near living up to the hype?
Look at 2018.
Sure, Josh Allen was a hit. Now, look at the other 3 of the top 4 taken. Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold.
Of course, you could just look at Lions 1st round QB’s over the last 40 years. Long, Ware, Harrington, Stafford. Many still insist Stafford sucks.
QB is right there with RB when it comes to wasting a high 1st round pick. Strictly by the numbers.

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He problem with your analysis is that it ignores that the reward of hitting on QB is so much higher than any other position. Yes, it’s a risky venture hut if we’re going to end up with a Super Bowl winning QB then it’s more likely than not coming from the draft.

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