Alim isn’t going to extend, he wants bank.
Very well said…. All of it
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Graham Barton- I’m not sure GG duplicates his 23’ season, nor whether he can play LG at that same level, as he surely can’t move like we used Jonah. Ragnow has that damn toe, and Zietler is 34 years old on a one year. I think Barton will be a Pro Bowl level interior player, and if we wins the LG job, and Ziegler duplicates last season, then GG is ELITE interior depth the next 2-3 years. He got paid, so not getting all the snaps at 32 years old isn’t the end of the world for him.
Michael Hall Jr- he’s only 20! Above Curious pointed out that his pass rush win rate is elite- his vertical and 40 at his pro day were insane for nearly 300 pounds!!! Having Alim/Hall next to Reader/Bro Mart is pretty enticing, and if Levi stays healthy, Hall has a 3-4 sack rookie year in 400 snaps, and Alim wants 24M a year? Then we start Hall and Reader, rotate in Bro Mart, and sign a free agent or simply retain Levi O cheap. Levi had a nice little season for just 130 snaps. He’s stated this is his first healthy offseason since being drafted!
Renardo Green- I’d like to add one more vet CB, but I am starting to like Green more and more, and his tape vs Nabers was elite. He allowed a 12.5 passer rating when targeted that game.
S Vaki- please sign Diggs, Simmons, E Jackson and draft a guy like Vaki who I believe they already love.
C Johnson or J Coker- gives us that X body type WR, and both have really nice RAS scores and would fill a need on the outside (compete with Green)
Nathan Thomas- depth at OT
J Karty- please draft him
Or
Kool Aid
Hall Jr
- trade up for Cooper Beebe
Vaki
Johnson or Coker
Karty - lose a pick moving up for Beebe
I think if we can sign a safety and bring in Gallup or Chark- then we really only NEED interior OL and CB…. I love the interior DL in this draft - Hall, Murphy, Newton, Fiske, Ruke, Taylor, Jenkins, Dohrlus, even D Carter could fit in nicely in rotation.
I think there are about 15 defensive players that have 20-30M AAV level impact….
Watt
Garrett
Bosa
C Jones
Parsons
Crosby
Sauce
Surtain
D Lawrence
F Warner
Then maybe…
Q
Wilkins
Hutch
Thibz
Sneed
Hunter
- guys like this….
I don’t think Alim cracks the top 40 defensive linemen in the NFL. He might be a top 4/5 3T for one year, but guys like Payne, Wilkins, J Allen, J Madubuike will have teams regretting those deals period.
Yes that is the going rate, but I think that a 5-7 sacks DT is easier to replace than most other 25M AAV players.
I would gladly take a player like Ruke, Hall, or Fiske in round 2 to replace Alim (if price is too high) versus hoping a 2-3 round WR could replace ARSB or a QB could replace Goff, or an OT could replace Decker day one.
The cap is now $255 million in 2024.
It is possble to see a $280+ million cap in 2025.
.
.
There are already 25 defensive players at $20 million AAV…
and only 7 of thise deals were signed AFTER the cap increased more than expected for 2024.
The reality is that $20 million AAV isn’t just going to be reserved for All-Pro levels players any longer.
.
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Exactly, not sure why people are struggling with this so much. Elite DTs now have a baseline of 30mil, very good, pro bowl caliber but not quite all pro caliber DTs are looking at 25mil AAV. Thats going to increase even further next year.
If we got Alim under contract for 16-18mil per this offseason, it will look like an absolute steal in a year, IMO.
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The other thing about Alim is that he is young, despite going into his fourth year. He’s 23 now, and will be 24 when the season starts. We got him as a 20 year old boy when we drafted him. The only DT’s that are better are older (maybe one exception in Jalen Carter). Chris Jones, Williams, Lawrence, etc are all in their mid to late 20’s. I see no reason to think he needs another prove-it year. I’ve seen enough.
Another thing is that remember our D needed an identity so we sold out to stop the run. Even so, had a much better year as a 3T next to Benito. Year 1 he was mostly NT, year 2 was both NT and 3T. His pass rushing can still improve and I think it will next to Reader and hopefully a better DL overall.
He’s also a good dude. His character matches what we look for. Maybe not the Saint, Hutch or Sewell-level character, but he’s solid.
If our philosophy is draft and pay our own, Alim is a keeper. Pay him and remove one more thing to address. If we can get three years at $54M, I’d do it in a heartbeat, even 3 at $60M would be OK.
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Alim is not a top 40 D-lineman?
You’re acknowledging that he was a top 5 3Tech in 2023 but not a top 40 D-lineman. Many get caught up in determining the value of a D-lineman in sacks alone, especially for DT’s. Interior pressure is a huge value that is hard to measure but is far more valuable than edge pressure.
It is very difficult for the QB to get away from inside pressure and the QB can’t step into the throw. The only way to get away is to exit the pocket and QB’s that don’t like to exit the pocket are greatly impacted (see Jared Goff).
QB’s can roll away from or step up into the pocket to avoid edge rushers.
Finding a DT that can create consistent inside pressure (even against double teams) is more valuable, and more rare than a dominant edge rusher (Aaron Donald, Chris Jones).
At 23 McNeill is showing signs that he can develop into a dominant inside pass rusher. If that happens in 2024 then it is important that they keep him.
I’m not saying to keep him instead of St. Brown and Goff. Those extensions should be completed before McNeill.
But if the Lions have a guy on the roster that can consistently pressure the QB at DT, you don’t let him get away.
Hopefully McNeill is that guy.
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Dude completely transformed his body last offseason. Lost like 15 percent body fat. I like where he’s at from a body composition perspective. He was carrying a keg around early on his career.
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If he plays at 300, and he checks out character wise for our staff, I would trade up to get him.
I don’t think that it’s that people struggle with the concepts It’s simply that there re a lot of mouths to feed. Alim at 8% of the total cap t the year of his signing was always going to be a tough one.
If Brad keeps drafting this way I do think he’s the level of player that we will have to let walk from time to time. Not sure why we do with him specifically. I think he’ll be extended but the DT market is giving me some pause. The '25 DT draft class may help suppress next year’s market a bit. Or perhaps that’s wishful thinking.
I was definitely impressed by the transformation Alim made in 1 offseason…. but I do agree with @Mr.Peabody that he could be even better by dropping some more weight.
He is so naturally strong that I think he would continue to be a top notch run defender… and dropping another 10-15 pounds might give just a little more quickness to help his pass rush.
Plus… may help him keep his motor running hot while playing a heavy snap count.
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This seems like an exceptional metric for determining success at the NFL level. Just about every guy on this list was / is a stud.
I don’t think Alim falls into that bucket of players you are talking about. It is very hard to find really good players on the interior DLine. Alim is already very good with plenty of room to still improve.
Barnes, Melifonwu, Jonah, Reynolds, Jamaal, etc. those are the types of players he may have to
Make tough decisions on. McNeil, Hutch, Sewell, Ragnow, Goff, St Brown, Decker, LaPorta, Branch, etc. those are the core players that to me are must resigns these guys plays very important positions or among the best in the league at their positions.
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I know, and agree with you 100%
I just don’t think certain guys are “worth it” is all.
Let’s say the Lions trade up with #29 and #61 to take a QB like Penix in the early 20’s
I’d rather pay 48M per to Goff, and use #29 on a player like Kool Aid and #61 on a player like Ruke or Hall jr….
Than take a QB like JJ or Penix and pay McNeill 24M and Carlton Davis 16M
Either scenario costs you 2 draft picks and 40-50M… I just think a 4-7 sack DT isn’t that hard to replace is all.
So in regards to Levi …
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He might. But just from an AAV standpoint in the front end contract year:
JG wil be let’s say aroun 17% in 2026. St. 9%. Sewell 11%. Hutch soon joining him at 11%. That’s all just napkin math and if the cap keeps growing at this pace then that certainly helps a ton. But at some point soon here I think we’re nearing the tough decisions stage.
Sure there is. I was a big fan of him as a 3t prospect, even though he played more 0 at Washington. You just can’t count on him due to that back. He should be treated as gravy if he can stay healthy and contribute meaningful snaps. I think if BH treats him as the #2 3t option behind Alim, he’s playing with fire. If Byron Murphy or Newton are sitting there at 29, it’s going to be tough to pass IMHO.
But I can’t shake BH moving up to take advantage of the CB run that will likely happen in the middle of the first round. I think guys are going to fall like dominoes there and it could be the difference between getting a guy like Arnold or Tampa. EDGE and CB are pretty thin after the first round. Though I’d like to go EDGE, I’m fine with trading up for a CB1 type. Robinson as a starting outside CB isn’t very appetizing.
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I don’t think anyone is good with those AAV’s around here.
Alim might get near $20 million if he has a really good year…
or might be closer to $16 million AAV if he doesn’t keep improving his game.
Nobody was talking $20 million AAV for Madubuike when he had 5.5 sacks in 2022…. but 13 sacks in 2023 moved the needle.
Davis would need to have a really stellar season to even sniff that $16 million AAV… and would still likely have to take a deal that doesn’t have any guarantees beyond year 2 of the contract.