So, I am going to bring this back on the new forum and try to do it each week again….
Lions are a weird 2-1-1 to starting the season. Losing in week 4, they go into Week 6 wanting to win at Green Bay for 1st place!!
Currently, they are at a 57% probability to not make the playoffs. Week 2 we were at 65%. so we have to keep winning!
- If we win against GB, it drops to 50%
- If we lose, it goes to 63% with a 13% point swing?!
- GB goes to 46%, from 37% this week, and we take over 1st place as well!!
Now, add is help from 49r’s losing tonight, Panthers & saints losing as well, and we go to 49%
As the whole league sits today, if we win 8 of the 12 remaining games (67%), we go 10-5-1 and will have a 17% chance of not making the playoffs or have a 83% chance to clinch!
We only go 9-6-1 and we will have a 63% chance of no playoffs. Crazy, but this was actually 68% going into week 5… other team’s wins and losses have had their effect on our outcome.
If we go on an indefinite winning streak, we control our own destiny to win the division meaning we still control our own path without needing help from other teams. If we lose @GB, we will then only control out ability to clinch the 6th seed only…… This game is huge from a statistical point of view.
We are currently projected to end the season as the 9th overall (Whole NFL) and grab the 6th seed and a WC birth.
We are currently 9th as a projected SB winner with a 4% chance of winning it all at this date and time! it was less than 1% at the start of the season.
Any record of 11-4-1 and we are a 99% or better to clinch! That’s winning 75% of our remaining games or we can only lose 3 the rest of the way for this to happen.
What three games are we most likely to lose?
Currently, 6-9- 1 would officially eliminate us mathematically from the playoff race completely! So, there is still lots of hope!!