Wk 6 Lion's Playoff Probabilities ... b4 MNF

So, I am going to bring this back on the new forum and try to do it each week again….

Lions are a weird 2-1-1 to starting the season. Losing in week 4, they go into Week 6 wanting to win at Green Bay for 1st place!!

Currently, they are at a 57% probability to not make the playoffs. Week 2 we were at 65%. so we have to keep winning!

  • If we win against GB, it drops to 50%
  • If we lose, it goes to 63% with a 13% point swing?!
  • GB goes to 46%, from 37% this week, and we take over 1st place as well!!

Now, add is help from 49r’s losing tonight, Panthers & saints losing as well, and we go to 49%

As the whole league sits today, if we win 8 of the 12 remaining games (67%), we go 10-5-1 and will have a 17% chance of not making the playoffs or have a 83% chance to clinch!

We only go 9-6-1 and we will have a 63% chance of no playoffs. Crazy, but this was actually 68% going into week 5… other team’s wins and losses have had their effect on our outcome.

If we go on an indefinite winning streak, we control our own destiny to win the division meaning we still control our own path without needing help from other teams. If we lose @GB, we will then only control out ability to clinch the 6th seed only…… This game is huge from a statistical point of view.

We are currently projected to end the season as the 9th overall (Whole NFL) and grab the 6th seed and a WC birth.

We are currently 9th as a projected SB winner with a 4% chance of winning it all at this date and time! it was less than 1% at the start of the season.

Any record of 11-4-1 and we are a 99% or better to clinch! That’s winning 75% of our remaining games or we can only lose 3 the rest of the way for this to happen.

What three games are we most likely to lose?

Currently, 6-9- 1 would officially eliminate us mathematically from the playoff race completely! So, there is still lots of hope!!


Jon said to hell with all that mathematical crap about who wins what and the percentage it hand our asses after. Go out and open up a can of whoop ass on ERIN !

That would be nice!!

Sweep the next four. I think it’s possible with health and good play. If that happens I think we finish 11-4-1 which would almost certainly win the division. I think even at 10-5-1 the division is within reach. I feel like the North is going to beat up on each other. A lot of evenly matched, good but not great teams. Definitely the deepest division in football. 10-5-1 might be enough.

If they manage 4-2 in the division, it would be hard tinge worse than 9-6-1. This GB game is a Really Big Game it seems.

If we finish 4-2 in the division we’d only have to beat Tampa and NYG at home and two of Denver, Oak and Washington on the road to get to 10-5-1. That seems quite doable. Win these next two and this team can do some great things IMO.

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Yep - mathematically we need a minimum of ten wins right now

We see a losing streak of all the NFC teams happen, maybe 9 starts to look good for one team…

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Well Abject, it seems a little early, but there is one thing I think this gets right. I think a 9-7 team will miss the playoffs. It may end up that a 9-6-1 may sneak in.

Make no mistake, I want more wins than 9, but I want playoff wins. We seem to be moving in the right direction. Time to make noise in the post season.

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Eric Eager@PFF_Eric


The #Lions triple their chances of winning the NFC North with a win Monday, and almost cut Green Bay’s division-leading odds in half

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This - we can control our own debating with this win vs. changing and hoping they stumble later on …

This win is huge!

Could you please just post the odds TO make the playoffs when you post these, not the odds to not make the playoffs. It’s just easier to quickly digest that way.

Updated for this game tonight with the weekend games added

  • if we go 7-5 over the remaining 12 games, giving us a 9-6-1 record…, we only have a 29% chance for the playoffs. We need ten wins now and that means winning 67% of our games.

It has to start tonight!!