Would You Trade Next Years 3rd

In putting this entire thing into context, we are saying that there is a player that is so critical to the success of the Lions that Brad is willing to pay a premium to get him on the team. He is so important that Brad won’t risk having him taken before our 5th round pick, doesn’t want to try to trade up from the 5th round BUT Brad has passed on that player 5 times already. I think putting this into a visual helps iron out how strange that would be.

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/detroit-lions-draft-picks-2023-nfl-draft/

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Let’s say when picking in the 3rd round we end up with 2 guys that are a “coin flip”. We like them both equally. After flipping the coin and taking one of them. the other manages to make it through the rest of the 3rd round.

I’d definitely consider trading next year’s 3rd for a guy we have a 3rd round grade on. We are just getting that 3rd round guy this year instead of waiting until next year.

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All true, but he pulled the exact same move to go up and get Derrick Barnes in the 4th. Didn’t give up a 3rd rounder iirc and had only passed on him 4 times instead of 5, but still felt the need to go get him. So there’s precedent.

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What if Brad loves two guys at 81 He takes one but while acknowledging the other will be gone in a few picks. Then 25 picks later the other guy is still there.

In a scenario like that what I think I know of Brad would suggest he’s go get that othwr guy.

I think he’s try to do something like the Barnes deal. '23 5th and a '24 4th.

Brad traded up from the 5th round. He gave up our current 5 and a future 4 to acquire a current 4 and a current 7. That kind of trade is one of the options I would hope he would take before sacrificing a future 3 the way Mayhew did.

Just to be clear we are talking about 2 different things. Giving up next years 3 for a current 4 is something I wouldn’t do. However, I have said many times that I don’t consider the later rounds to be the “real” draft picks, and they are better used as bargaining chips to move up or trade for existing players. I think moving up from the 5th into the 4th would be a wise move.

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I get that. Like you I’d prefer to not utilize the day 2 pick. But if it’s for a guy that Brad has a high grade on I’d be fine with that as well.

I think it’s more likely to trade down one of the 2nd’s to pick up a 4th.

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Even sliding down in the third with say KC could get us a 4th back.

One way to look at that trade is he gave away a 2021 5th round pick in order to get his 2022 4th in 2021.

If the OP suggested giving up next year’s 4th and a 6th this year to pick in the 4th this year, it would be much more palatable. The 3rd round should produce potential starters. It’s all a numbers game. I expect the likelihood of producing a starter in the 3rd more than the likelihood of getting a starter in the 4th. Obviously we have some late-rounders that make you think a little harder, but it’s still a numbers game and I just wouldn’t want to give up a 3rd for a 4th.

Really, it was simply meant to be a starting point and let the discussion evolve, which it has with lot’s of options that don’t include a 3rd. Good points from past history as well. I have no real preference but I looked at our draft and that huge hole from 81 to 150 I believe and thought, “Surely there HAS to be a guy in that void that we like, that fell, that we have ranked much higher.” I assume this will proceed up to the actual draft, as I can’t believe that we aren’t going to pass in that void I think there will be some sort of move.

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Well you have to consider them real with Brad MF’n Holmes slaughtering the later rounds… houston and rodrigo in the 6th? Mitchel in the 5th had a 100% catch rate in is limited action coming back from injury.

I see your theory and raise you Amon-Ra St. Brown!

Obviously in the future we will have less roster spots for developing later picks. But i consider them infinitely more valuable with Bradley than any other GM in Lion’s history.

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I think we’re spoiled. Two 1sts last year. Two 1sts and two 2nds this year…

It’s not like we don’t have our 4th… we do, we just get to use it a couple rounds early. :slight_smile:

We don’t have a 4th next year either.

We acquired Mitchell with a 5th round pick. The Seahawks acquired Marshawn Lynch with a 5th round pick.

But we have an extra 3rd from Minnesota as well.

And even Houston struggled to make the team. I’m
Almost in favor of Trading some this year to gain future picks as lions sort through which young players to keep.

Right, it’s just a pick swap. I guess the point would be twofold… 1st, we made those trades already. (We’re picking early.) 2nd, if we’re imagining any kind of movement this year it has to be factored in (no 4th).

What happened with Houston is a good example of how things can get as the roster starts to improve. It can only support so many young guys trying to find their way. So throwing 8 million darts at the board isn’t really the best strategy anymore. At some point it needs to switch to quality over quantity.

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Due to where the comp picks are going to fall, there is a massive difference in our third next year vs a 4th this year.

A couple different ways to look at that. If you believe that the Lions are likely to make the playoffs and win a game, then it’s probably no more than 32 picks or a round back. As I have mentioned the 3rd was really just a starting point for discussion, but I will say at this point we need to quit thinking about the future past this year and spend some money in FA and do what you have to do in the draft to get the very best talent to compete this year. Once you make the playoffs anything is possible.

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Should be a decent jump ahead of the compensatory picks

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