Year two expectation for TJ Hockenson?

Here’s an interesting article on year two expectations for TJ.

I’m curious if people agree with the expectations put forth in this article.

So if we add around 250 yards to Hockenson’s rookie season, that would put his expected output around 600-650 yards. Admittedly, that’s on the higher end of just about everyone above—and it’s important to point out that not everyone’s progression was in a positive direction—but with a top-10 pick comes high expectations. If Hockenson doesn’t make a jump to around that level, the discontent around that pick will only grow louder.

I give the author credit for putting together a solid piece with data to support his expectation. I agree that expectation should be high. 600 yards is a lot and I’d be happy with that. I think most would but my expectations are slightly lower.

I do believe 500 + yrds and 4-5 TD’s to be a little more realistic of an expectation. Still high but he’s coming off injury and this offseason training programs are hurt by the pandemic. I think this hinders development some.

What are your expectations?

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Purposeful Trigger inducing response: 1000 yards, 80 catches, 10 tds and a pro bowl. :crazy_face:

Reasoned out hopeful expectation response: 600-700 yards, 45 catches and 6 tds.

I do think this bizarre offseason impacts everyone including a 2nd year tight end coming off an injury.

I think Hater has it about right
I want to see north of 600 yards and some memorable moments

I was surprised that first game last year didn’t carry forward — at all — last year
That has to get better. Not sure how much of that is on Hock, Bevel or opposing defenses adjusting for Hock. Obviously some mix of all.

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Last year only 8 TEs had more than 700 yards

Only the top ten broke more than 600 yards total

Only the top six had at least six TDs for the season

If he get to 600 yards and 5/6 TDs - going off last yards production- he will be a top ten TE and that doesn’t factor in how he is schemed for blocking assignments and passpro.

I’ll be very freaking happy


Thanks for bringing facts to the table — always helps in self-assessing how reasonable your position is. I’m going to stick with the 600 yard marker mainly due to perceived potential.
I won’t hold his draft position against him.

Regardless of position drafted, if he gets to a second contract with the Lions and a few PB’s it will have been a successful pick.


I expect a big year from TJ. 800 yds., 50-60 receptions and 6-8 TD’s.
I think the block and release is going to net 8-12 yds. Per play. A reception and the seam route will net him some big gains. I see 600 as pedestrian and he should exceed that.

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I hope you’re right
I think the addition of Swift and the two guards will pay dividends this year
Bevel has a bevy of talent to work with in 2020
I’m expecting big things on offense this year, regardless of individual stats

Rookie offensive linemen are rarely a net-gain in blocking, especially when you’re going from Glasgow to a 3rd round rookie who people had graded all over the map. It’s possible JJ comes in and is better than GG…but probably not a realistic expectation.

Man - would be cool if this happens… that’s atop 5-8 TE overall compared to last yrs stats…

Play 14+ games. Not get hurt. Catch some TDs. Not suck. Block some DEs/LBs that would have otherwise flattened Stafford.

If he doesnt look awesome the entire front office needs to be fired, basically.

If TJ, Okudah, Swift, Tavai, all dont look great. Its time for a new GM.

GM has strung out an INCREDIBLE length of rope to hang himself and somehow is skipping rope with it. Lions.

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" Detroit Lions

The Lions ran 11 personnel 59.5% of the time, while the 12 was their next most-used grouping (16.3%) in 2019. However, the offense ran 11 on 52% of their plays in games with Matthew Stafford at the helm. What’s more, Detroit ran far more 21 personnel (16%) with him on the field than without him (3%). Detroit also had three or more wideouts on the field in 58% of plays with Stafford."

For Hock opportunity is the name of the game. I think Hock will be in roughly 75% of all the plays now…up from his time as a rookie as long as he is healthy:

Even with Hock injured he was 4th in Lion targets in 2019. Danny was actually second in targets.

The question is really…how will this offense change to get Hock more involved? Hock should see more targets than Amendola but will DB and Patricia make that adjustment? I think they will. Will Hock end up 2nd or 3rd in targets in 2020? For Hock to be productive he needs more targets and he needs a better catch ratio too. Hock had 32 catches o 59 targets in 2019. That is 54%…not good enough. He needs to be up over 65% in terms of catches to targets. IF the offense gets him involved more and IF Hock improves his ratio I can see him becoming a viable third weapon here. A doubling of catches is possible but he will need maybe 75+ targets to do that.

Maybe 50 catches on 75 targets (66%)…and if he stays in the 11.5 YPC average that puts him at 575 yards and more if he gets more targets.

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May be true but I’m pretty sure both guys drafted will prove to be better run blockers than GG
I believe GG was better at pass than run blocking?

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GG was a rookie 3rd rounder who played 706 snaps, just sayin…

Has there been any reports on how his foot/ankle is healing, or his rehab?

I get that…but he also wasn’t very good as a rookie…and that is being nice!!

Splitting his time between LG (57 percent of snaps) and center (43 percent), Glasgow had an underwhelming rookie season. His 42.1 overall grade would have ranked 70th out of 73 eligible guards and 37th out of 38 eligible centers.

So, to say JJ is going to be an upgrade over the best Free Agent OG, just isn’t fair.

I’m not saying he will or won’t be… but GG was playing next to a rookie LT as well, which doesn’t help AND Laken Tomlinson, which REALLY doesn’t help lol. Don’t forget Warford’s (a 3rd round pick) best year here was his rookie season at RG.


Nice to see everybody lining up their excuses for the top-10 draft pick TE early.

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I actually think he will improve his catches and TDs more than yards. Big time red-zone target. We need to keep him away from the open field/middle of the field. He is one more concussion away from the NFL giving him the Jahvid Best award.

I would like to see his yards over 500 and his TDs North of 5. I want him to be a key piece of the offense.

Mostly I want to see him be an impact player. I want him making the catch that extends drives…making the block that springs open a play for both the ground and passing games. I want him to help this team win!

I do want him on the field as much as possible…I’m of the mindset that we should always try to have our best players on the field. He needs to be one of our best players.


Just stay healthy and I’m happy.