How many will we need to win the Super Bowl?
How dare you!? Barnes > Rodrigo
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One of my favorite ratings is QBR. What’s the QBR when you’re being thrown at in the secondary, and what’s the rating when you’re being thrown at as a receiver? Well, Green’s QBR is 144.4 when being targeted, Hyatt was 149, Flowers was 100.8, Mims was 127.5, Downs who was also from NC 123.8, Johnston was 102.5, Smith-Njigba was 132.1, Tillman was 119.9, Addison was 137.9, Dell was 126.8, anyway, see where I’m going with this? His number was elite.
What was Greene’s number?
Oooops, probably would have helped make my point, 144.4 was his number. I put it up as Johnson.
I thought so. Damn that is impressive. Was it the highest number in the class?
Hyatt was 149.
Obviously good QB play is going to help tremendously with a stat like that (poor Zay) but the fact that Green’s number is so much higher than Downs shows how efficient Green was on plays down the field.
That’s really interesting stuff. Any numbers on how it correlates to past classes? Where was Jefferson? ARSB? Jeudy? I get it if you don’t want to spend any time looking it up, so maybe a link? QBR is a ESPN stat right?
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Off the top of my head ARSB was 120, or 120 something. Those stats came from Draft Buzz, but I’m pretty sure I can’t go back far enough for Jefferson or Jeudy.
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Awesome, I’ll go back and look some up. Thanks.
Here’s what I’ve found so far:
ARSB: 113.5
Waddle: 123.8
Chase: 110.1
Elijah Moore: 83
Kadarius Toney: 112.6
Kyle Pitts: 76.6
Bateman: 88.4
Pat Freiermuth: 91.1
Rondale Moore: 93.7
Tutu Atwell: 90.1
Terrace Marshall: 115.7
Dyami Brown: 99.2
Amari Rodgers: 83.7
Anthony Schwartz: 59.3 
Drake London: 96.4
Garrett Wilson: 105
Chris Olave: 97.1
Jameson Williams: 136.3
Jahan Dotson: 106.6
Treylon Burks: 108.7
Christian Watson: 129.6
Wan’Dale Robinson: 106.6
John Metchie: 121.3
George Pickens: 108.7
Tyquan Thornton: 94.4
Skyy Moore: 99.6
Alec Pierce: 94.7
So takeaways…
It looks like Brad might actually use this as part of his scouting process. As you mentioned Antoine Green had one of the highest numbers this year, ARSB had the third-highest number in the first 4 rounds 2 years ago, and Jamo was the highest of anyone in the top 3 rounds last year. That makes it a really good find.
As far as correlation with NFL success, I think so far the best you can say is avoid the guys with low numbers. Of course this comes with the caveat that the sample size is extremely small, and we don’t even really have enough data to determine NFL success yet.
But we can estimate it, and generally the guys with the lowest numbers have disappointed. Elijah Moore’s on his second team already. Amari Rodgers is a bust. Schwartz is barely holding on to an NFL roster spot. Kyle Pitts is the one that will really test that notion, but he was certainly a disappointment last year. And maybe it’s different for TEs.
I also think it’s interesting that this year’s class was so much higher overall than the previous two years. Did they change the way they calculate QBR? Most talent evaluators call it the worst class in years, but those numbers don’t really add up.
Anyway thanks for posting this. Good offseason content.
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I have posted before that Sam LaPorta had a QBR of 80.3, which on the surface sucks. But…when your QB has a rating of 30.3 well then it’s really, REALLY good. And that’s the other side of how you look at this. What was the QBR of the guy throwing the ball and was the receiver higher or lower than the average?
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