I agree with this.
We aren’t going to add 7 hitters, and ruin the chemistry that we have going on.
We will be picky about who we add from the outside, and continue to develop our own.
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Thats based in what ive been reading.
Look up any major publication.
Ive been reading $22-25m for 5-7 years
Because hes already under contract for the next 2 seasons for $26m total. So the tigers currently have the leverage not Skubal.
Yea, that seems unlikely, and Skubal has leverage, plenty of leverage. Cy Young award alone will up that significantly, way too many clickbait sites out there now.
And we haven’t even mentioned Scott Boras is Skubal’s agent, so those numbers are not realistic.
Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, prefers his clients to reach free agency and baseball’s economic system incentivizes players to reach that milestone at the youngest age possible.
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Are you talking about buying out his arby years?
Why would he agree to that? He is an older first time FA and wont pitch on a new contract until age 29, so he is likely going to want his Big Deal to cover through his prime and peak plus maybe a bit more, which for power pitchers is age 33-35, depending. So say from his view, age 36.
That’s 8 years of FA. 10 years if you include arby years left.
Now, he can hold out and pitch through his arby years and go to FA and want then to command, if he pitches towards this peak of 24, the biggest FA pitcher contract ever. Cutrently that is , for similar length and talent guys, Cole and Yamamoto (9/324 and 10/325). DeGrom got 5/185 at an older age and both Max and JV got 2 /86 at advanced age.
In 2 years, thats gonna be 8/360, minimum.
22/yr is less than what Zack Wheeler got FIVE years ago.
He has made barely 6 million total in his career as a 9th rd pick, and looks to make 11ish in 25 and double that in 26. He has been hurt twice. He likes it here. We are a playoff team…
Offering him 10/ 350 with a little acceleration of the total value as a signing bonus locks him up, pays him now, pays him faster than arby, gets him over both Cole and Yamamato’s valuations ( happy MLBPA) and is probably a discount fornthe Tigers given the NPV and length.
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If the Tigers make him pitch 2 years w/o a deal, year to year, with injury risk, they lose goodwill and leverage at FA time. Bye bye, hope Pitching Chaos works in 5 years…
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Hes much much older than alot of the pitchers that got their first extension. Over 2 years older. He may get more money but it will be fewer years.
Say the options are $22-23m for 7 years
Or $25m for 5 years.
Thats all the reports ive read. If he doesn’t like it then they will go the arbitration route.
$11m this year and ~$15m next year then let him walk.
This is skubals first EVER healthy year in the majors. Do you really want to pay a 30+ year old pitcher with hit or miss injuries?
Yea, no.
Not sure who or what you are reading but those numbers seem way off. No way Boras goes along with that.
Weasel’s numbers make sense.
Bleacher report $23m for 6
Others say $25+ for 5.
Other pitchers of similar age and IP per season are getting between $22-24m
Starting pitchers dont go past 4-5 innings much any more. so they arnt going to get huge deals like verlander did
if you are looking at age and IP, sure when you bring in talent level, that changes things. Time will tell but I think you’re numbers are low
That is what Flaherty is getting This Offseason.
It’s what Jordan Zimmerman got TEN years ago.
Again 10 years ago most starting pitchers were going 6-8 innings.
Average starts in mlb was over 6 innings with the best going 7+
Now almost all starters even the top are barely getting past 4. Its a different era in baseball.
Not only that most dont make it much past their mid 30s as a starter
Making a guy like Skub who pitched
Into or past the 7th 15 times
6 IP exactly 10 times
Out of 30 starts
Even More Valuable
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Of the last 23 years SP who won the Cy Young,…
More have pitched into their 40s than have stopped pitching at age 33 or younger. Of the 6 in the second category you have
4 arm blowouts ( Webb, Lincecum, Santana, King Felix) Trevor Bauer and General SuckAss Rick Porcello.
Dickey, Pedro, Unit, JV, Scherzer, Rocket and Big Sexy were dealing while dealing with gray hair
Odds are better they hit age 38 than 33.
Yes they will be pitching as a reliever. Not a starter.
2023 and 2024 roles for past Cy Winners at age 38+
Grienke, JV, Max,- No relief appearances.
36+ Kershaw, DeGrom- No relief appearances.
Retired between 2017 and 2022 Cy Winners final seaons
RA Dickey, Jake Arrietta, Porcello no relief appearances.
Kluber- 9 starts, 6 relief. 7+ ERA Previous career, 0 relief appearances.
Price-All 40 appearances in relief.
You can believe what you like but you have provided no facts to back up your belief at all.
You just named a bunch of guys from a different era of baseball.
Those guys that are pushing 40, wernt throwing 90mph or massive sliders in highschool.
Pitcher now are asked to throw more and harder at a younger age.
Hugger impact pitches for a shorter duration of time.
Team highschool college and pros, have a pitcher wear themselves out in 5 innings vs throw less for more innings.
But the BIGGEST issue also is, i believe it when i see it when Chris hands out a massive contract
Ok, I see where you are looking, back and forward now. Interesting.
I think you may see MLB have a hard time paying elite starters less money based on the idea that at some point in the future, elite starters won’t pitch but 5 innings.
What follows is that the Pitching Chaos 5 reliever buffet each game is being done by young guys in their pre arb and arb years as the majority, and are paid very very little. As they age up, do they start demanding more $$? 6th/7th inning guy getting more while Skenes/Skub type guys get less?
If pitching is going to be transformed, is comp? MLBPA tbh is a trade association that protects the veterans and high earners…
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Yes thats what i was getting at.
And yes i think your going to see more of an evening out of pitching payroll.
Starters will make a little less and relievers make a little more
Its all analytics now. The chess match. Rather than just throw out the best pitcher we got.
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