See I see it less as an instincts issue and more of an issue of extreme conviction. It’s that Seau approach to LB’ing. Not comparing them as players just that there is a subset of LB’ing play which sacrifices assignment discipline for greater playmaking. He’s in that subset.
In conversations with @thats2 I was very early on the Cooper being a real thing train. Having him on my fantasy roster certainly played a role. But this first round talk? No thanks.
Done
I dont think hes a First Rounder, but i do think people are seeing and going through his film more and more, espeically after this Chip run from Indiana.
Hes a Good WR, think hes about round 2 rn, but Round 1? i think there are a couple players above him that have bit more tools at their disposal or have shown better consistency.
But there’s a fine line between Seau and Ernie Sims. 2024 was closer to the former; 2025, the latter. I also think for all the juice, he’s really pretty awful in coverage. Just too easy to get going one way then going the other. The flashes are really high-level, but the down-to-down consistency is pretty poor. I get the argument though. If you can make those splash plays more consistent, you’d have something.
Like I said, I was like “yep, he’s a real thing” back in September.
But to me he’s a jack of all trades master of none Z. IMO it’s a plentiful profile. We’ll see what he runs. My impression is that it’s 4.4s somewhere. If he’s pushing 4.35 then I’ll reevaluate.
I still like him. I just think we’re in the midst of a the helium taking the pendulum too far back the other way.
But Ernie Sims wasn’t even that impactful in college. Especially not considering the recruiting hype. 2024 Hill was legitimately one of the five to ten most impactful defenders in that college football season. I just don’t see the comparison. I don’t see it with college Seau who was a DE either.
Again it’s a value proposition based crush. At pick 35 in this draft the risk-reward appeals to me.
At some point the risk-reward would appeal to me too. It’s just further down. There’s too much Jamin Davis, Quay Walker, Malik Jefferson, Trenton Simpson, etc… to his game. The super athletes with middling instincts really don’t hit all that often, and I’ve become wary. There are plenty of great athletes who do hit, but they usually come with plus instincts as well. Henley, Cooper, C’pn Jack, etc…
At a certain point I’m just playing the odds, I suppose. I suppose it’s a little like helmet scouting… profile scouting?… and at some point one will hit big. I’m just willing to let it be for someone else. I’m the same way with gigantic but heavy-footed OTs too. At a certain point it’s better on an outlier and that’s usually bad for business.
Cooper’s hands spook me a little too much to take that high. 2-3rd round turn is about where he should go imo, but man people seem to be a lot higher on this WR class than I am.
This list includes zero LBers that had anywhere close to the degree of impact that Ant did in his Soph. year. As has been well established I’m far more comfortable leaning into a prior season than you are. Not saying I’m right and you’re wrong in doing so. It’s just an area where our approaches differ.
As you also know I’m an early breakout guy. Go find other LBers that had Ant’s 2024 production against that caliber of competition as a freaking 19 year old. I presume that it’s exceptionally rare.
Right there with you. Some are conflating being impressed with how the WR class overperformed an initially dismal outlook with it actually being legitimately good by modern draft standards.
You are more forgiving of regression than I am, for sure, but I am not completely dismissive of prior season successes either (and I know you’re not accusing me of that). But I try and treat it as little more than a data point.
I suppose maybe I put more stock into the spike season than you. After all, it’s still a really small sample size overall, sometimes guys just put together an excellent handful of games that isn’t representative of their overall profile. That’s what makes evaluation tricky (and fun!), we have to put the traits + situation together to try and predict the future.
And for me, in Hill’s case, it’s easier for me to tell myself a story about why he popped in 2024, and why it could be an illusion. Much more so than someone like TJ Parker, whose sample size of dominance was larger, was in a much worse overall team situation in 2025, and while I have some concerns about how his first step will translate, I have no doubts about the power element of his game. Or Fano, who regressed in one area of his game but actually took steps forward in multiple others.
But you’re right that young LBs almost never pop like that. I wonder if there’s a fun little early breakout stat for them like there is WRs?
No idea. But scarcity is important to me.
I’m not a tape cruncher. I watch games and then I look for patterns, anomalies, etc. Young kids doing savant like things is a cohort I have had high degrees of success with. 
I think it’s possible Trey Lance’s kid bro is being underrated though. One of the few I seem to be higher on than consensus.
I like Bryce A LOT. Hurst too.
It’s a totally viable approach. But then sometimes you get Harold Perkins. Like we talked about last year, sometimes these guys might have fatal flaws in their profiles… or if not fatal, something that has to be accounted for… and I think Hill might.
Harold Perkins still might be a thing with the right DC.
He could be, but we’ve got 3 years of whiffs and multiple DCs who couldn’t figure him out. At this point I’m not sure how you use him. Some sort of overhang rush spot that doesn’t have to cover? He just gets more and more niche as time goes on.
I may regret this when he works out but give me Jack Kelly. So I have the two biggest playmaking true LBers on complete opposite ends of the instincts versus juice standpoint.
See now Kelly’s someone I like, partly because his price won’t be exorbitant, but also because LBs like him hit all the time. Instincts really matter there.
Have you watched much Jaden Dugger yet? 6’5, 245 and moving like that? I don’t see any way he goes as low as he’s being mocked right now.