Alim McNeill is likely to build on his 2023 season and command $20M+ per season somewhere in 2025. I love me my Alim and you do too.
What would you (Brad’s guardian Villain) need to see from Mekhi Wingo and Levi Onwuzurike (also a FA, but presumably less costly) to not pay Alim? How likely is that combined production in 2024? Does the bumper crop of DTs in the 2025 draft impact your decision at all? Does Brad view DTs like he did TEs when he traded Hutch? (Edit: Oopps. I meant, Hock of course. How the hell did I not get called out on that blooper?)
If you believe that the salary cap is a real thing, I’ll add that Hutch’s early extension takes another chunk in early 2025.
It’s tricky cause I want to keep Alim. But if he’s getting 20+ million per year, plus Hutch getting 25+ million soon enough. Plus all the fat contracts on offense… it’s gonna get tough eventually to sign all these guys. That’s what happens when you draft well and develop players though. Tough decisions.
I think Alim is actually a little underrated on here, and if we can get him for $20M/year, I’d be pretty alright with that. The guy just turned 24 a month ago, and DTs tend to get better and better the longer they’re in the league (see DJ Reader), at least until the wheels fall completely off. I really want to keep him, but it’ll be a difficult decision for sure.
I expect McNeill to play well.
If he does you follow the Lion Values that Holmes has established.
You pay the guys you drafted, developed and know better than anyone else.
A dominant pass rushing DT is more rare than a pass rushing edge.
Pay the man and reward your own!
To me Davis is the interesting one. With Amik having two years and both Ennis and Terrion could we take a different approach at CB. I do get the counter-argument of “would Brad give up a 3rd for just one year” though.
Perfect example of why declaring for the draft early is a good business decision. Hitting free agency before 25 is impressive. Sewell and Alim were both kids when they declared.
At this point I think the long term plan is to let Davis walk.
Drafting2 CB’s and signing Robertson while choosing not to extend Davis is the reason I suspect that plan.
Obviously it will depend on how things play out.
Are Rakestraw & Arnold ready to be the outside CB’s?
Is Iffy being brought back?
Is Branch moving to full time Safety?
Is Robertson the full time Nickel?
How much will it cost to keep Davis?
I think Holmes gives priority to keeping the guys that are true Lions.
Guys that were drafted and developed here.
McNeill, Iffy, Barnes, Decker, and Hutch (early extension eligible) take priority over Davis.
I think a lot depends on how well the young DTs play next season. Unfortunately we aren’t likely to see enough of a sample size from Martin and Wingo in particular to know if they can adequately replace McNeil. Levi maybe if he truly is fully healthy and ready to take a step but that’s a longshot.
If I was to take a guess, I’d say that they sign McNeil. I have a feeling that Holmes sees him as part of the Goff, Sewell, ASRB, Hutch, LaPorta core, a Core 6. Can’t pay everybody though so, down the line, decisions on guys like Gibbs, Branch and Arnold will have to be made but we’re talking 3-4 years from now.
Who else on the roster is an absolute necessity to retain and give a big money deal to?
What positions do you want to pay and what positions do you want to find value?
How confident are you that you can replace talent that leaves in free agency?
There are so many moving parts. It’s a no-brainer to sign guys like Sewell and St Brown as they are elite level players, but when you’re dealing with sub-elite level players, it becomes a difficult balancing act. McNeill has one good season under his belt, but has also shown steady development over three years and is clearly a culture fit. If he has another season like 2023 then he might well price himself out of staying on the Lions, a DT who can get to the QB and stuff the run will be very highly sought after and I’m not sure Brad will want to match what a more desperate team would be willing to offer.
It’s a really tough one. I blame Brad Holmes for making the roster too good to be able to keep everyone.
The jury is still out for me with Alim. 5 sacks doesn’t scream top DT. I see it more as they had no one else. I understand he missed time, and probably could have got more, but the reality is he didn’t. And hopefully he stays durable. I also think about how he wasn’t missed at all when he did miss time. I even forgot he was injured.
A DT that gets top pay is a game changer. We can say with Reader it should up his game, but Alim should be the player to up other peoples game. That’s what an elite player is. He’s a good player, but Alim isn’t that yet. I like him a lot and I think he could break out, but we’ll see what happens in 2024.
There’s more to playing DT than sacks though, I think you’re underestimating what McNeil’s balanced game does for us. Donald and Chris Jones are outliers, but I’d rather have McNeil than the interior sack mavens like Jarrett or Ed Oliver who don’t do squat against the run.
This chart shows just how well-rounded McNeil is, ahead of guys who got PAID like Christian Wilkins, Jeffery Simmons and Leonard Williams.
Thats2 is spot on!
A 3 Down DT that can play NT or 3T, rush the passer and stuff the run is very rare.
McNeill is not some fat NT that you stick in to take on double teams.
He rushes the passer as well as stop the run. He was still 2nd on the team in pressures with the games he missed to injury.
Very few DT’s get double digit sacks in a season. McNeill has that potential and should be in that range if he plays a full season.
If McNeill continues on his 2023 trajectory he would be well worth the $20M-$25M cost.
