Here’s what I see in this article
Alim’s extension talks
2 Likes
1 Like
I could see Alim gambling on himself and expecting a monster year and telling his agent to hold off on signing an extension
Dude is putting in the work and primed for a massive season if he stays healthy
2 Likes
I’m not buying this Villain master plan or anything. I imagine that they wanted to sign Goff but he’s asking for elite QB money and they know he’s not elite. Kind of like we’ve been saying all along. I don’t know where this discount stuff came from but Goff doesn’t seem like the discount type to me. IMO they already overpaid St. Brown so that says they’re really not being frugal. Jared must really be shooting for the stars.
1 Like
I continue to suggest that the delay is term and guarantee not average Annual Value.
People get caught up on whether it’s $48M, $50M, $53M in AAV.
That is not as important as the guaranteed money and term (or years before team can get out of contract).
Holmes is shown that the Lions are not cheap or quibbling over AAV.
When signed both St, Brown and Sewell were the highest in AAV at their positions.
Goff will get and deserves $50M-$55M in AAV on the contract he eventually signs.
But the Lions should be able to get out after 2 years if desired.
That along with the 2024 season Goff is already signed for would amount to 3 years of guaranteed money.
I would like to see a 4 year $200M - $220M contract with about $110M guaranteed (Daniel Jones type contract).
Goff can still earn in the neighborhood of $55M per year in the final 2 years but just not guaranteed. I suspect he will still be playing well and the Lions QB so no issue.
But if he is not playing well or is not the starting QB the Lions can easily trade or release without major cap consequences.
I believe Goff wants a contract that binds him to the team for +4 years like Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Wilson, Hurts, Jackson, Herbert, and Burrow all got.
Miami is working on their new deal with Tua and Dak is in the last year of his contract as well.
Tua is expected to be extended while Jerry will take it to the end before caving and giving Dak what he wants.
Those contracts may way heavily on the Goff contract if they are signed first.
There is no urgency to get the contract signed so I think it will be awhile.
I would like to see it get done in those two weeks after the last preseason game and the regular season begins.
Remember people contract negotiations are A LOT more than just Amount and years.
This is everything negotiated
-
Signing bonus (Up front cash fully guaranteed)
-
Number of Years
-
Base salary (varies every year)
-
Option Bonus (varies every year)
-
Work Out Bonuses (Varies every Year)
-
Incentives (varies every year)
-
Roster Bonuses (Varies every year)
THEN!!! You have to figure out.
- Goff is already getting $27.3M this year with $5m of it guaranteed. So how are you going to move that money around in the new contract.
THEN!!!
- Figure out how much money is guaranteed at signing. Typically signing bonus PLUS the first year or 2 of earnings.
THEN!!!
- Figure out how much of all those bonuses and base pay and all of that gets guaranteed and when. So if hes on the team in March 2025, then the 2026 base pay gets guaranteed, stuff like that.
On top of that!!!
There is other things that arnt money related.
- No Trade clauses. Free tickets to the games, merchandise, when he must come to camp and practice, all those little things.
So theres a LOT more than just 4year 200m.
1 Like
Of course there are details to every contract.
The point I’m making is it is not about the AAV.
It is about the length and guarantee.
Many get caught up in if it’s $48M or $55M AAV.
It more about if it’s $120M or $220M guaranteed.
I think Goff wants to be in the $200M guaranteed range while Holmes is likely thinking less than $150M.
1 Like
Yes. Thats usually the hold up.
But there 2 types of guaranteed money.
1 Guaranteed at signing
2 guaranteed through out the contract per year.
Now i looked at all the qb extensions in the last 10 years or so. And found a common trend.
4 man categories i put them in.
4 year extension with no void years
4 year extension with void years
5 year extension no void years
5 year extension with void years.
- 4yr no void had about 40% guaranteed at signing and 65% total over the life of the contract
- 4yr with void had about 55% at signing 75% life
- 5yr no void 38% signing 70% life
- 5yr with void 45% signing 70% life.
Obviously a player is always gonna want more than the average and have the most guaranteed as possible. But thats the typical breakdown.
Aside from Watson.
The most guaranteed at signing was Prescott at 59% as well as his 79% life guarantee.
The low end is
30% at signing and 60% life.
1 Like
Honestly I’m not convinced he’s back. I suspect like Jackson he will bring more money on the market than the Lions are willing to spend. Brad Holmes has played money ball at DT since he got here too.
My guess is a career year next to reader will put him out of budget.
4 Likes
Theres a lot fewer good QBs than good DTs.
$50m+ is absolutely worth it for Goff.
When hooker is likely only a 1% hit rate chance of being good. Not great just good.
1 Like
APY is more important for a player that plays well after signing. Guaranteed money is more important to a player that doesn’t play well.
That’s quite low on the guarantees. I doubt that’s what the Lions are pushing for that as they don’t seem to be cheap in that department. If it’s a 4yr contract extension, the 3rd new year will practically be guaranteed. i.e .On 03/18/26, Goff’s 2027 base salary will become fully guaranteed, essentially gauranteeing Goff to be under contract through 2027.
4 Likes
On other teams…on our team, there is a muuuch higher likelihood that he hits his ceiling.
1 Like
History speaking.
3rd Round + QBs hit less than 1% of the time.
Since 09 you have
Wilson, Prescott, Cousins, Purdy,
Vs the other 120 turds
2 Likes
Holmes is conservative on length of contract and guarantee except on his market setting player contracts (Ragnow, St. Brown and Sewell).
All others have been short term with relatively low guaranteed money.
The $110M would be new money guarantee. By extending it would also guarantee the $27M he is do this year. and not provide an out for Lions after 2026 season. 2027 salary can be guaranteed on 3rd day of league year March 2027.
If Holmes wants to be locked into Goff through 2028 he will offer a contract similar to the others I’ve mentioned.
I would offer a only guarantee the first two years of extension at signing.
It is still fair in that he could still earn $55M/year if he is on the team through the entirety of the contract.
As you mentioned, APY is more important to players that play well after signing. If he is not playing well after signing it provides the Lions a way out.
1 Like
I completely agree…annnnd… this guy is raised, taught, trained, mentored differently than those ‘turds’…by an acquisitioner that has a strict “no turd” policy.
This is different.
PFF would completely back your sentiment.
Along with - Never draft a RB in the first round - never draft a LB in the first round - you got screwed on the value chart to move up for both of your DBs in this year’s draft…you got screwed on the value chart by trading up for Manu
…the truth will set some free, but it will drive others insane.
I think the Lions need Goff more….
He broke Erin’s college records
He made it to the playoffs in year 1 as a starter.
He made it to a SB in year 2 as a full time starter.
He has more playoffs wins than all others lions QBs combined in the modern era.
He’s led 4 top 5 offenses in the last 7 years.
Give Goff the 49ers D the last 2 years and he easily has 2 rings.
The fact is he was damn close with a shit defense. If we can make the cap work for 3-4 years and stock up on D in the draft- we may win 1-2
4 Likes
The drafting a LB in the 2nd or RB 1st is more of a positional value deal vs actually having NFL potential.
No one questioned if Gibbs or Campbell would be good. It was just where they were taken.
However QBs. Is a different story.
Not only was he a 3rd round pick
He was the 5th QB taken.
Which of the 120+ taken as the 5th qb or higher. And a 3rd round+ pick?
Wilson, nick foles, prescott and cousins.and of course purdy.
The odds arnt great at all.
1 Like
…correct → Per the “experts”…and positional value is determined on how much they would be expected to contribute…LaPorta & Gibby are contributing massively - more than honoring positional value would have.
…then factor in that he went where he went primarily because of injury
The odds of any QB making it are not good at all, and obviously, the later taken, the less their chances of success.
Now let’s look at a different metric → Rookies drafted and trained by Holmes/Campbell
Now, what are his chances of success? That’s my point. that other stuff becomes less relevant as you recognize each situation is unique with its own set of circumstances. I see Hook’s floor as a very good backup, with a ceiling that would get me ridiculed.
p.s. I used to get ridiculed for calling Dan the best coach in the NFL. It’ll take another few years before it reveals itself, just like this…and ppl will have forgotten about the old conversations and who had them.
I am telling you → Hooker has a very high ceiling.
The cap isn’t real! It’s only an issue if you pay a lot of money to shitty players.
Right now we have ONLY the likes of Moseley and Davenport in true flyer deals…. Not a ton of future void year pain next year or beyond either- only about 9M including the Decker and Davis redos.
We should have 11M this year and 6M next year crediting back for Sutton too correct?
Either way….
Decker- 2 years 42M extension
Goff- 3 years 162M extension (new money)
McNeill- 3 year 63M extension (new money)
We have nearly 123M minus the 25’ draft class (7M) free for next year…… about 116M and roughly 41 players under contract plus the 3 above, and so we need 7 more contracts toward our top 51…
25’ hits-
Goff- 45M
McNeill- 15M
Decker- 21M
That’s 81MM…. Leaves us 35M for 7 guys….
Goff
- Hooker
Decker
Glasgow
Ragnow
Manu
Sewell
- reserves Mahogany and Sorsdal
Laporta
- Wright and Mitchell
ASB
Jamo
Raymond
Green
Monty
Gibby
Vaki
That’s 19 of the 25 players we need on offense for next year……
So we sign a vet OL, a vet WR, and draft an OT and a WR….
Hutch
Reader
McNeill
Paschal
- M Wingo, Bro Mart
Campbell
Anzalone
- Rodrigo, JRM
Rakestraw
Arnold
Robertson
Joseph
Gilmore
As can see we have 15 defenders. Could use about 4 draft picks and 5-6 free agents here.
Likely a vet CB, Safety, Edge and draft a DT, LB and Edge.
2 Likes
I’m not totally disagreeing but I don’t think a young first round projected QB slides all the way to the third just because of an ACL.
he would have been be the second oldest first round QB since 1967 when Weeden was taken with the 22nd pick.
Combined with the fact he had one great year in a single read max-protect offense. Thats the furthest thing from the under-center multiple-look offense Goff runs. Hooker is a project. I can’t wait to see him in pre season, but I wouldn’t want to put my eggs in that basket right now
I think he can be a great QB but I wouldn’t want to count on it.
2 Likes