The compensatory pick formula is a complex one, for more info on it read OTC’s Nick Korte’s summary interpretation of how the formula works. In simple terms, you get a potential compensatory pick for losing an UFA (Players that get cut are Street Free Agents, so guys like Christian Jones, Desmond Trufant, JJ Watt won’t be in line for a compensatory pick) and the value of that pick is largely determined by APY the player receives. For 2020, the APY was broken done as follows (again by Nick Korte at OTC):
Potential UFA signings
Golladay - should be in line for a 3rd
Okwara - 4th or 5th
Marvin Jones, Everson Griffith, Danny Amedola, Matt Prater, Duron Harmon . . . could generate a 7th (provided the comp picks aren’t used up on 6th and higher) or 6th.
But for any UFA signings that we make, we will lose out on potential compensation.
Eh. Whoopditty doo.
We lose Galladay and get to draft Will Harris.
I love more draft picks and all, but relying on compensatory picks as compensation for proven NFL players has always bugged me. Especially if it’s true that FA’s you sign negate that pick.
I won’t say no to a comp pick, but it has nothing to do with my decision of wanting a player to stay or not.
So if, say, Golladay signs somewhere else for 18 million and the Lions sign John Johnson for 12 million for the same number of years, what would the Lions net? A 6th? I know it’s just a guess, but it that about right in your estimation?
Well, there is a cancellation chart that Nick does to. Basically you remove UFA’s lost with UFA’s gained at similar APY value and after the cancellations are done, you award teams with the highest value of UFA’s lost and work your way done and once you’ve assigned 32 compensatory picks, you’re done. If you don’t get 32 compensatory picks, the team drafting #1 gets a pick and so on until 32 picks are assigned.
So, if we lose Okwara at $10M, Johnson would cancel Okwara and we’d still be in line for a 3rd for Golladay. But we’d have to factor in all UFA’s first . . . i.e if we sign someone for $8M also, Okwara might cancel that guy and Johnson would cancel Golladay.
Quick, we need a historian. When was the last time the Lions had a compensatory pick in the draft? Looks like 2022 is gonna be the first time in forever.
Quinn literally had no use for them. Strangest thing. He called comp picks a "“novelty” which is weird considering how New England was gaming the system via their contact structure just so they could amass more.
I remember trading up for Gabe Wright. We used the next years pick, because it was believed we’d a compensatory pick for that one. So whatever year we took Wright, the next year had a compensatory. That’s all I remember.
Good call. We traded our 2016 3rd for a 2015 4th in order to select Wright.
Just a quick glance at wikipedia shows we last had a comp pick in 2016. In fact, we had comp picks in 2013, 2014 and 2016.
Mayhew, despite his flaws, was FAR superior to Quinn as a GM. He deserved the shot he’s been given in DC. Quinn, on the other hand, should never be given the keys to any organization ever again.
Top 5 teams in most comp picks since 2017 averaging 10.3 wins/season in that span, with 13 of 20 possible playoff berths. Bottom 5 teams averaging 7.1 wins/season, with 6 of 20 possible playoff berths. Well-run teams take advantage of the comp pick system.
That’s partially true. Well run teams can’t help but to take advantage of the comp pick system, it’s the way it was designed. If you draft well, you sign to a second contract some of your players and let some walk in UFA and because of this, you don’t need to sign UFA’s to fill spots.
Poorly run teams that haven’t developed talent in the draft, have to sign UFA’s to fill in their holes, thus ruining their chances of compensatory picks.
There is some gamesmanship that can be done, but if you’re a poorly run team, like the Lions it’s hard to game the system and still sign FA’s to fill holes. Sure you can target Street Free Agents (like Tyrell Williams), but if they are cut, they are cut for a reason and if you wait until after the UFA period, the players that are still UFA’s are free agents for a reason (personal issues, contract demands, talent, etc).
I’d say it’s 50/50 as to whether we get a comp pick for Golladay, the others will almost assuredly cancel out. If you are going to take advantage of the compensatory system, you need to draft well and the upcoming potential UFA’s from 2018 - 2020 drafts are suspect.
