Players never get less expensive, so the earlier the better.
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They extended Sewell this season.
They definitely could do the same next season.
Tack on his 5th year option then a 4 year extension on top of that.
Signed through 2030.
CASH paid not CAP. Projected
So 2025 hes getting $11.37M
2026 5th year option ~$25.00M
2027-2030 ext. 33 AAV . (top DEs usually get ~ 12% of the cap AAV for that year so projected cap in 2025 is ~$275m x 12% = ~33m)
So his total contract from 2025-2030 could be
6 years ~$170M 28.33M AAV.
I 100% expect them to extend him next year. Waiting to extend high end players may protect you slightly for injury, but the money saved out weighs that protection by a ton.
Of coarse if a player has an injury history you might choose to wait. But you didnt wait on Sewell and you sure dont wait to pay Hutch.
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Imagine how much we would have saved if they had extended Goff last year. There were preliminary talks before last season.
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I know everyone was hoping the deal would be done last year. And save some money. I was one of them. But it was NEVER gonna be that $45m people wanted.
Hurts, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson all were in talks and all reports pointed to 50+m.
Where at the time murray, watson and mahomes were $45-46m.
So goff would have likely been $48.5m at the lowest. So the most they would have saved is 4.5m AAV. A good amount sure but in the grand scheme of things not really.
Consider that 48.5m aav would have been 21.6% of the current 2023 cap. 53m aav is 20.8% of the 2024 cap.
So it APPEARS like its a better deal now vs last year in terms of a cap hit %
In other words the cap went up more than expected than the amount goff got.
His cap hit wouldnt have been 48.5. When you take into consideration 2023 and 2024 cap hits on his old contract, the average would have been more like 43-44. And most likely the first 2 years would likely have been at or lower than his old contract values.
But yeah i get your point. I dont argue that. I think the contract would have beed 46-48mil max before both the NFCCG and the 30 mil cap jump. I remember very few here wanting to get it done early. But there were a few smart people pushing it.
I am always a pay early guy for consistent players.
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It was not worth the risk to sign Goff early. The $5M or so savings on AAV is not worth the huge albatross that contract would have been if Goff regressed again.
Penei, St. Brown, and Hutch have performed at a high level from the start and have consistently done so.
Goff was bad as a rookie, got better with new coach in McVay, got bad under McVay, was bad the first 2/3 season as a Lion, then got good again after that.
As much as Holmes says he has never waivered in his support for Goff, he did draft Hooker to hedge his bet.
He says it was as a backup, but you can get an experienced backup QB any year. The Teddy’s, Menshew’s, and Darnold’s of the world will always be out there.
Holmes wanted to see more.
Goff delivered and got paid handsomely.
There should be no hesitation with Hutch.
He has delivered with performance, effort, and culture establishing energy the first moment he arrived in Allen Park.
Even if he is injured, he will be extended just as Bosa was in SF.
Unfortunately it won’t be cheap.
Even next year I believe it will be $35M/YR AAV.
Next April pay the man and keep it moving.
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People forget how big of a cap hit Goff was last 2 seasons.
2022 15.0% of the cap.
2023 13.8% of the cap.
Now
2024 10.6% of the cap
2025 12.0% of the cap
He will restructure before 2026
2026 24%
2027 17.7%
2028 18.7%
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I think the 2024 and 2025 cap hits for Goff are low simply for flexibility, not so the Lions can go on an immoderate spending spree. Money has never burnt a hole in Brad’s pocket before and I don’t expect that to be the case in the future. The surplus can always be rolled over to future years. Brad said very clearly a while back that he doesn’t think in terms of windows. So far, anyway…
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After Hutch goes for 20 sacks next year…he’s going swimming. Take a look at Bosa’s contract. Insane money
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That’s where extending him early can benefit both him and the team. Insurance against a catastrophic injury for a guaranteed bag of money now can be a win-win. All of these early contracts could make signing LaPorta and Branch and others down the road more likely.
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This is what happens when people write about something they don’t understand. The guy writing the article doesn’t understand how the salary cap works and neither does the guy that he references in his article.
- Hutch will be extended next season.
- We dished out a lot of large contracts, but the payments are spread out so that the Lions can make the payments without a lot of problems.
- Even with the big contracts to ARSB, Sewell and Goff, we are near the top in spending, but that comes with 4yrs of underspending vs the salary cap (including 2024). We have banked some room to add some big contracts.
- BH has built through the draft and this is why he’s done it, so that he can pay the players that deserves it. Like ARSB and Sewell, Hutch deserves it. There will be a time when we let some good players walk, but Hutch won’t be one of them.
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Hutch is as much a no brainer as Sewell. The first real decision is going to be Alim.
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The cap will never be an “issue” unless it’s allocated to the wrong players. Whether guys like Goff, ARSB, and Hutch each get/got 3-4MM AAV more or less is completely inconsequential.
That’s having a Charles Harris or Tracy Walker vs a mid to late round rookie like Houston, or cheap prove it like D Elliott-
There are already 34 players signed for next year (not counting any UDFA either btw) and with our next draft we should have 40 plus…
After 25’ rookie pool we will have nearly 62M (after getting Sutton cap credit back hopefully)
OG, WR, CB, S, LT, DT…. Those are the only spots we have key starters that are FA, and then you have DE which is debatable whether it’s Davenport or Paschal that eats the majority of the reps.
Let’s say they sign 2 of these… Decker, C Davis, and McNeill…. Likely McNeill and Decker?
Zietler, Davenport, C Davis, and DPJ-
If we enter 2025 with the above group as the only players we need to replace… THEN BRAD DESERVES EVEN MORE LOVE!!!
Mahogany, Manu, Rakestraw, Wingo, and Green (to a lesser extent) at least give us options who could fill those slots.
We may well enter FA and the draft needing only 2 total starters.
In 2025 the 49ers already have 30M in voided year dead cap hits for Armstead and Ward….
They have 6 others over 20M up to 30M in 25’ alone. Bosa, Kittle, Deebo, Warner, Hargrove and T Williams- ALL HAVE 15M PLUS IN DEAD CAP TOO- most over 25M dead cap next year!
CMC- will be 29 and cost 15M, but cutting him could save 9M?
They will have Ayiuk and Purdy contracts to deal with 2, which would put 8 over 20M AAV, but a simple restructure of Trent and Deebo and they are fine.
—— we have 3 guys over 20M, and with Alim and Decker- it would be 5…. Hutch has 3 more years, and Goff is only signed for 5…. By the time Gibbs, Laporta, Branch, Jamo, Hutch potential new deals matter “on paper”- Goff, Decker, Rags will likely be moved on to pay for it, and we will transition to a stud veteran roster and rookie QB segment- like SF is now.
While I agree Hutch is a no brainer to sign for a ton of reasons. Hutch and Sewell are not in the same class IMO. At least not yet. Sewell is well on his way to the HOF. Hutch has some serious work to do before that is mentioned for him.
But with that said, from Day 1 I have said that while I did not think Hutch would be a super star right away. I did 100% believe that he would get better and better year on year and his ceiling was and is hard to predict. His work ethic and commitment to the game, the team, and himself is second to none. He is always going to keep working. He is similar to a ARST but just not the same personality. He may actually be outworking ARST. He is just quiet about it and more low key.
This is a HUGE season for him for many reasons. First off a contract year of sorts. But also he has legit DTs to push the pocket. So the narrative that he is a 1-man wrecking crew and that is hold his numbers back should be removed. So if he is on his way to being a top 5 DE this season he needs to show it with results and not “pressures”.
Sacks destroy drives.
I am still a huge buy on Hutch. I expect him to take it to that next level this season. He has been a force but not a complete game changer so far and I think that is about to change.
Sewell has very solid his rookie year, similar to Hutch. They both followed up with pro bowl style season in their 2nd year. Sewell made the jump to all-pro this past season and has an argument for the best OLineman in the league.
Let’s see if Hutch can make a similar jump, but to me he is already a top 10 pass rusher with the chance to be top 3-5 after this season. IMO, he will be a legit DPOY candidate this season.
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Yeah this is a statement that I kind of hate. Not because you are right or wrong. It is more about how the NFL treats this stat and who is involved.
Looking at the standings from last season 5 out of the top 12 are LBs. Hutch being 12th on the list. So right away I am like duuuude he is an every down DE.
So based on looking at the stats. Hutch is looking better and better. He just needs to make that jump to All Pro. And that will be the tough one. With Mile Garrett a lock for 1 position he will need to jump someone.
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