Cracking the code with Brad Holmes 1st round Selections

Now remove the players that dont fit the culture:

AD Mitchell (his effort level is beyond atrocious)

And those who didnt produce in college:

Chop Robinson

And you forgot to add in the other players on those same teams that are top 50 guys

DT Murphy
CB Kool-Aid
DE from alabama

Maybe the next guys arent top 5 at their positions but are top 50 on most boards

WR Worthy (obviously not a fit)
DE Adissa Isaac

I know im missing some. I didnt look at what pro days Brad went too

Only Alabama from what I can tell

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Branch went top half or round 2. If not the whole round or the half round then what is the cutoff?

The initial activity sounds a bit lit Twain’s “Liar, Damn Liars and statisticians” quote.

Name them and what round they are projected to be drafed in. If they are day 3 players they shouldnt be in this comparison imo.

If that is the case then this list is bunk

Yes. To me there is no cracking the code on Brad. Last year at this time one of the caveats for a “Brad pick” was positional value, because in his first 2 drafts he literally spent more draft capital on high value positions than any other GM.

Whoops.

The sample size is too small to make any sweeping generalizations like this. To me the only thing we can say with any certainty is that football character is very important. But that doesn’t eliminate a lot of options (AD Mitchell, Sweat, Burton, etc…)

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I’m not seeing it.

This pic below is calling Kneeland and Lee DTs…
but they aren’t DTs in the NFL. They are base DEs or 5-techs at best.

Newton didn’t test… so no RAS score.

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2024-nfl-combine-top-ras-results-by-position/

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also…

Orhorhoro didn’t do agility tests.

As the pic below questions….
what if he had “middling” agility scores?
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In one of his interviews Holmes said or implied that he would see all his top picks with his own eyes.
It may not be a Pro Day but would include Top 30 interview, Senior Bowl practice, Combine interview and he even mentioned going to a game during the season and seeing the player live.
It is hard to track all of those interactions, but he is not going to select a 1st or 2nd rd player without seeing him with in person.

Oh absolutely, but there are plenty of opportunities for that. My main contention was with the idea that he had to go to their pro day, since he didn’t go to many this year. In fact I find it kinda surprising that he’s gone to all of the pro days of the guys we’ve drafted so far. That one might have to be fact checked.

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The RAS website has an updated list. Hes 10th on their list. Good but not elite like brad goes for in the first round. That list is from right after the combine.

Exactly. The “recipe” is that Brad will pick guys that he thinks are going to be very good NFL players and teammates. The data that go into that particular algorithm are likely both complex and subjective.

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Can you post a link?

Or… a screenshot???

I am not finding a top 10 list easily.

Jamo didn’t have a RAS. Gibbs’s was lower than Murphy’s.

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nevermind… I found the info….
and I was correct.

Murphy has the 4th highest RAS score.

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Updated as of today.
Hes 10th now i think 4 of those guys are super late picks.

But point still stands top 5 in RAS

Takes A LONG TIME to load

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I listened to this. Brad attended pro days for Alabama, Iowa, Texas, Toledo, FAU, Colorado, Fresno, Syracuse, Penn St.

Also, DeJean and Arnold were #1-2 on the RAS, respectfully.

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Are you sure it wasn’t that we sent scouts to those places? Because the ONLY one I can find despite spending an hour searching is the Alabama one. Google, Twitter, Insta, Reddit… there’s nothing that says Brad was there… except at Alabama. That one’s easy to find. And so is last year at Iowa for example.

All I know is that they asked David for a list and he came back with that. No context was explained. But they also said the reason everyone was so aware of Alabama is because Alabama themselves announced it, not the Lions. And that other teams are under no obligation to announce who was at their pro day.

So take it however you’d like. Just passing along some info to help the code-cracking.

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30 5/8" arms will do that to you.

Seams this year we are getting less information on whose at pro days and whose coming in for interviews than we have in years past.

I think teams are realizing that people are starting to find trends. So they have to be more hush hush about everything.

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