DetNews: Wojo: Lions still own the NFC North, but rivals are knocking

The Den
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# Wojo: Lions still own the NFC North, but rivals are knocking
full article at link.

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Sorry to break the news, Detroit fans, but the Lions aren’t going 15-2 again. They might not even go 14-3, or 13-4 or, gasp, 12-5.

Sorry to break the news, division rivals, but neither are the Packers, Vikings or Bears. The NFC neighborhood looks tougher than ever, and it’s increasingly fashionable to predict a new bully on the block. The Packers have emerged as the favorites, based on the latest developments and odds.

Green Bay added sackmaster extraordinaire Micah Parsons, loudly declaring its championship intentions. Minnesota switched quarterbacks, turning a loaded offense over to untested J.J. McCarthy. Chicago raided Detroit’s house, swiping Ben Johnson to work his guru stuff on erratic young Caleb Williams. Johnson also plans to be the Bears rookie head coach, supposedly.

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And the Lions? They did something others found peculiar, but they consider prudent. They basically did very little, other than filling spots with the same or similar pieces. This caused consternation for some, that a team struck by massive injuries that lost in its opening playoff game basically eyed its 15-2 roster and said, hey, we’re good.

They are good, potentially great. And while their rivals are betting on shiny new additions, the Lions are betting on themselves. They’re betting the rash of defensive injuries was a fluke, impossible to predict and unlikely to be duplicated. Frankly, Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have been successful enough to make that bet.

It’s always incumbent on the challengers to be aggressive, and they were. It’s incumbent on the reigning division champ not to get complacent and not overreact. The first returns come quickly, when the Lions visit Green Bay for the opener Sunday, with the Packers the favorites — in the game and the division.

If that turns the target on Green Bay, fine with the Lions.

“Love it,” said Jared Goff, asked about the Lions’ newfound (and yet to be earned) underdog status. “It’s confusing because I don’t know where we stand externally, and I don’t really care. Are we supposed to be good, are we supposed to be bad, all these different story lines. You can’t ride that rollercoaster and we don’t. But yeah, I like being on this side of it more.”

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Bringing the same players back only works if they’re really good, and the Lions had seven Pro Bowl selections last season. Yet it’s unlikely they’ll stomp through the North a third straight season because the division got even better, and the rest of their schedule is brutal. How about these non-division road games: Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles, Rams. Now that’s insanity. If the Lions finish 11-6, as I predict, nobody should complain.

Remarkably, the Packers (11-6 last season) and Vikings (14-3) face the same heavyweights — Commanders, Bengals, Eagles, Ravens — but get them all at home. The Bears (5-12) have the same gauntlet as the Lions.

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That’s a tough last place schedule. Ben Johnson is due for a rude awakening is year one.

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Great post!

if you take a look at the way contracts are often staggered….

Kerby- 4/86M

Mac- 4/97M

Ra- 4/120M

Sewell- 4/112M

24’: 2M…5M… 5M… 8.5M respectively

25’: 4M…6M… 14M… 9.5M respectively

26’: 6M…29M… 33M…. 28M respectively

27’: 9M… 28M…29M…. 33M respectively

28’: 13M…29M.. 41M….34M respectively

29’: 18M… 27M for Kerby and Sewell (Ra and Mac contracts over with small void years)

— Combined hits 24-28’

20M

34M

96M

99M

117M

Now let’s presume…

  • Hutch gets extended this year
  • Branch gets extended in the offseason
  • Jamo gets the 5th year or extension
  • Laporta gets extension in offseason

We are talking about 30M in cap hits in 2026 and maybe 40-45M in 2027

By the time these guys get pricey in 2028, it’s the last year of Gods deal- so they can easily move him or move money.

Having that group together for 4 more years vs selling key assets and allocating 47M for Parsons alone is why we trust Brad!

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It was the DetNews, not me

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I’m a Michigan fan, but I don’t fear JJ McCarthy at the NFL level…. 6’3” and 219 is good but not great size and while he’s mobile, he averaged under 4 ypc in college on a talent stacked team. He never broke 3,000 yards passing nor passed for more than 22 TDs. I know it wasn’t his fault that it was a conservative offense, but a peak rating under 170 and failure to throw for 3500 yards or 30 TDs in a college year doesn’t scream a monster first year. With JJ banged up, Addison suspended, Hock fragile and A Jones over 30… The Vikes also allowed 21 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games so they will have to score… they only rushed for 9 TDs all year and J Mason only rushed for 7 TDs in 3 years and 650 snaps… Bottom line the D was trending down and in order for the O to stay on par, they need about 28-29 TDs from JJ in his first year…

The Packers are very light inside now!!!

  • K Brooks- 294 pounds 37.0 run grade
  • D Wyatt- 304 pounds 51.2 run grade

The Packers DBs

  • Hobbs- 63
  • Bullard- 52
  • Nixon- 61
  • McKinney- 84
  • E Williams- 72

McKinney is a stud, but the rest are a mixed bag of Jags and unproved lower pedigree guys

While Golden is a great prospect… how much different does Golden, Doubs, Reed/Wicks feel than Watson, Reed, Doubs?

I think the Bears having Ben immediately trying to poach Dans guys feels a bit Fatty Patty to me.

Roschon <<< Monty

Swift << Gibbs

Moore < Ra

Loveland ? Laporta

Williams << Goff

Odunze ? Jamo

Burden ? Teslaa

OL << Det OL

Good luck Ben

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