Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell reckless or ahead of the curve? Results speak for themselves

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# Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell reckless or ahead of the curve? Results speak for themselves.
Full article at Link.

Maybe you’ve heard.

And maybe you’ve heard the assorted former players and coaches and NFL analysts ripping the Lions coach for his aggressiveness. That he was reckless. That he is a “bad” coach — yes, that was said. That he is coaching a good team now and he needs to act like it. That he will cost his team in the playoffs as he supposedly did last season.

Also, do we really need to relitigate the NFC title game loss to San Francisco?

Apparently, we do. And it’s tiresome.

Primarily because it’s not true. But also, because the reaction to the Lions’ win over the Packers is just the latest reminder that too many of us can’t handle change. Or a different way of looking at the world. Or anything that goes against conventional wisdom. Or a narrative that gets scooped up without proper context, or facts.

Campbell went for it twice in January against the 49ers because the percentages of making a field goal — for his particular kicker — were far less than the percentage of his offense converting fourth-and-shorts. Beyond the math, he’d watched every second of his team’s every practice and game — he knew where its strengths were.

The decisions didn’t work. Sometimes they don’t.

Former Tigers manager Jim Leyland welcomed second-guessers. He knew it was part of baseball, and part of the fun of loving a baseball team. He also understood the backseat drivers.

What he didn’t abide was the utter conviction that the opposite choice would’ve been better, that a different relief pitcher — or lineup — would’ve been the difference. The second-guessers, as he rightly pointed out, had no way of knowing.

Numbers can’t account for feel

Campbell wanted to win the game right there. He knew his defense was tired and beat up. He’d watched Green Bay score 24 points in the half. (Seven of those points were aided by a short field when the Lions couldn’t convert on a fourth down on their own 31, but even that decision made a sort of sense. See: The Lions buckling defense.)

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Final snippett:

Some models suggested Campbell’s decision to go for it hurt his team’s chances of winning by a few percentage points. But, again, those models don’t account for losing defensive tackle Alim McNeill to a head injury, or for a makeshift defensive line, or for the Lions’ numerous injured linebackers.

Nor do they account for Campbell’s feel for his team. This isn’t the same as his gut feeling about a moment, though coaches rely on that, too. This is about accumulated information through countless practices and games, and through every play of a given game. It’s ebb and flow, if you will.

History and situational standards matter, but so does context. Context isn’t neat.

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It would be interested to see how those statistics line up for top 10 offenses. The probabilities they use are normalized across all offenses.

That said I would have let Bates kick it lol. Dan knows the team better than any of us. We pay for a reason and he has earned the right to take what chances he sees fit. And we sure as shit wouldn’t be riding this winning streak if it wasn’t for him.

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To win in regulation, the Lions needed to score three points and prevent GB from scoring three or seven. You have one play to virtually ice the game pending a successful field goal. What is the simplest path to victory?

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I’d be interested to see the data on how many points we have gained by successful 4th down attempts versus how many points it has cost us by unsuccessful 4th down attempts. My bet is we’re comfortably in credit.

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I bet it’s at least a 2-1 advantage, but it’s not an easy thing to quantify outside of the obvious goal line examples. The one we’re talking about Thursday results in 3 points whether we go for it or not. The key thing we earned by going for it there was time, not points. So, hard to quantify.

More than how many points we’ve gained, I’d like to know how much those decisions have contributed to us winning. But that’s probably even more difficult to quantify. I know that making that FG would have given us a 95% chance of winning where making the first down gave us a 99% chance of winning, so strictly speaking we gained 4 percentage points there, but most decisions are that clear cut either, especially early in the game.

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It was the right decision: lets look at all outcomes.

Miss fg still tie game packers get ball at better position

Make fg kickoff packers get ball with 40 seconds and no time outs to go for tie or win

Make 1st down kick fg make win… miss overtime

Dont make first down. Packers have ball with 40 seconds to try to win with fg or td. Otherwise overtime.

If dan calls fg after his qb wants to go for it… you better win or else you put a seed of doubt into goffs and his teammates heads.

If you go for it and dont make it. You still backed up your players wishes so its still ok no matter the result of game.

Dan had to go for it.

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“We were all supposed to be here together, man. We were destined for this.”
– Dan Campbell

He is not a head coach. He is a cult leader.

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From a philisophical perspective, Dan is right. There is no actual free will. The Lions being SB champs in 2024 was put in motion with the creation of the universe.

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Saw an Instagram reel of Richard Sherman talking about his conversation with Whitworth… Apparently, Dan was going to kick the FG, Goff was upset, Dan saw it, got on the headset and then told JG they were going…

Here it is…

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It occurred to me that this rash of takes bashing or criticizing Dan’s choices, and saying it is going to cost the Lions a playoff game is the same as the smack some hacks have always used against the Lions. Predict something bad and the odds are that the Lions will lose somehow.
Before you balk, consider, even though the Lions are one of the favorites to make, and even win the Super Bowl, odds are greater that they will lose. Just like every team single team in the tournament. I think some of these guys are doing just that, throwing crap at the wall hoping something sticks that they can claim makes the smart. If the Lions win it all on a Dan gamble, so what? Fans have a short memory and sports radio and tv constant provides the next thing to discuss. And more click bait BS by the same hacks.

But us fans who have folloew them so long know this is not the same Lions. Not even close.

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There was the same hoopla about when we beat the Packers in the final game of Dan’s first season which knocked us out of first place for the draft.

Instilling a culture and being true to yourself and your men is far more important than draft position - but like last week the shouty show guys don’t get it.

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I would use the ram/bengals Super Bowl as the example of what risk you run putting the defense back out to get a stop. Remember on the last play Ramsey fell down. If Donald doesn’t make a hall of fame play burrow hits that pass and the rams lose. There is no perfect solution. Any which way the coach decides is rolling the dice.

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The normal rules don’t apply when you have a highly rated offense that can both run and pass effectively. We Dat. The normal rules don’t apply when your defense is a sieve or, late in a game, when your defense is tired and exposed. We weren’t tired, but we were closer to sieve and exposed because of the Legion of Whom at the end of the game…

Any questions?

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If Josh Renoylds doesn’t drop that 4th down pass we would be going for back to back SB’s right now. Don’t tell me that play cost us! This is who we are and it works!

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This is going to sound ridiculous but I don’t even really care. It’s us. We are who we are in large part bc of our appetite for risk. And it’s fun as hell. Together that’s good enough for me.

Though if I had to guess I would agree that we’ve came our way ahead.

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Yep, I don’t care either. This would just be for ammunition to bring to a fight with all the chuckleheads like Bruschi, if you’re into that sort of thing.

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Enjoy :joy:

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1000005831

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That’s actually pretty funny.