Do we over estimate our own players?

Maybe I’m still in the heat of the moment, but for me if you can’t come through in the clutch it’s not gonna work out. I expect us to be playing in a lot of big games with clutch moments over the next ten years.

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I think that Holmes uses a production calculator as a starting point. Then he factors in an amount say $500k for a good locker room fit and $1mm for a leader role.

His amounts have been very consistent and I think the most telling data point we have is the 3 guys that renegotiated their contracts down last year.

Basically they didn’t contribute in 2022 and so to come back in 2023, they renegotiated (Big V, C Harris, and Romeo).

They had to have had a conversation like “We paid you $10mm this year and you didn’t play. We need you to reduce by $6mm for next year” or whatever the numbers were.

Never seen 3 players in one off season do that. Amazing work by the front office. Also not sure it is all Brad making this happen.

In Goffs Case, his production probably merits something like $46mm and he gets a $2mm lockerroom leadership bonus…

If I gave any one the impression I was calling them out I apologize, I do think ( including myself) that we have to think not only what the player means to us but what the player may mean to another team. For example I am a huge Goff fan but ( imho) the lions have put him into a perfect position for him to be this successful. Because of this I believe other teams may not be willing to give Goff 50 million or may not be in the position to sign Goff for 50 million. Is it possible ( reasonably) that Goff may sign for less (45 million cap friendly contract) same principle for Glasgow ,jackson , josh Reynolds

I get the moment is bigger in the playoffs, but Josh had multiple key catches at pivotal moments. As much as it hurts, I can’t let two drops negate all the other good.


Glass Cow and Johan may go for less than we expect. Goff will not, unless he is giving a discount

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I get it but this is a cruel business. How many clutch drops would it take? Are you willing to wait until he hurts us again with one or two of them, or would you rather move on before that happens? He came through for us plenty, but not in the game’s biggest moments. You have to wonder if that’s why LA moved on, he had plenty of chances on big stages there as well.

Yes and no. Goff is gonna get paid. We have bias to our players. On defense specifically there are people who wont be back and may not start again…looking at you vildor.


America’s in a state of renewal. We’ve gotta have the strength to tie a few factories to a tree and bash 'em with a shovel.


I feel like every fan overvalues some of their players and undervalued others.

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Best player on the team and among the very best in the league. They are three of the biggest reasons the Lions are on a 22-8 roll and “should” have gone to the SB. No over-estimation there.


I don’t see much bias.

Vildor acquitted himself well for a former 5th-rounder pressed into service, but no one’s expecting him to get big $$$ going forward.

Goff, Sewell, ARSB, Hutch, LaPorta, Gibbs, etc. - yeah, when the time comes, they WILL get paid.

I see only a couple guys where some fans might overstate their market value. JJ is one. How will teams adjust their assessment based on his injury history? Glasgow probably IS much more valuable to Detroit than he would be to any else. He’s a much better player in D than he’s been elsewhere. JReynolds I think is another one who’s more valuable w/the Lions than w/anyone else.

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He did just fine in LA; tons of clutch catches. As you’ll recall, they opened a very small championship window by throwing money at star players. Some non-stars had to go. Josh blew two key plays, no doubt. But he was also one of the highest-graded players against the Rams - 6th-highest of all Lions players in that game.

If you think the guy has been “unclutch” in the past you just don’t know.


Which is why I asked.

All I know for certain is he didn’t come through for us in the two most clutch moments he had.

I rarely talk defined numbers for value because I know I am not good at that.

Instead you will hear me discuss in terms of:

Full market value (whatever that may be)
Reasonable amount (subjective, but you get the idea)
and my favorite
If the price is right (generally meaning team friendly)

So St Brown… I would pay full market value for
Decker would fall into that reasonable amount area
and CJGJ and Mosley if the price is right.

It never will get you the, “We should offer $X millions to player X.” because I don’t think my value assessment is close to reality. Even OTC seems to be a little more optimistic about salaries than they should.

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Thank you woot that was exactly what I was saying in this post agree completely with …. But imho i believe Goff to a lesser extent belongs in that group also . I don’t see another team that needs a Qb and has the cap and the o- line that the lions have to make Goff as successful as he is .

If, across his career, a receiver has 100 catchable balls in “clutch moments” and catches 98 of them, do those 2 drops define him as unclutch?

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You and I have very different definitions of clutch. To me he’s had 2 opportunities in true, we-could-go-to-the-Super-Bowl clutch moments, and he bottled them both. He made some big catches in the Rams game, I’ll give him that, but they were catches he should make as an NFL receiver. I’m not gonna pat him on the back for doing his job.

I’m gonna blame him, for ■■■■■■■ it up when it really mattered.

I’m less bothered by Josh’s 4th down drop than I am his 3rd down drop. The 4th down drop was at least a high degree of difficulty. This one was a bunny.

He hangs on and we’re likely pushing midfield.

Of course, you blame him. I blame him too. Of course he blew it at a key moment. That’s not the issue.

The question, looking forward, is whether his drops-in-a-key-moment makes the you/me/Goff/the braintrust lose confidence in Reynolds. Do you/I/Jared/the coaches become less likely to go his way in a “clutch” situation next time? Do you think he really IS less likely to make the next big catch because he dropped the last one?

You: apparently, yes.

Me: not at all.

Jared: not at all. (I believe what he said).

Coaches: I dunno, but I doubt it.

Fair enough. I admit that on top of his lack of clutchness I think he’s easily replaceable, that’s probably coloring my POV. To me he’s just another guy.