Do we over estimate our own players?

For example last yr we thought Dj chark was going to get a Contract starting at 10 million, or our safety Elliot was going to get a 4 to 5 million a year contract, and so on . could it be that the rest of the nfl does not view our fa as highly as we do? Could Jonah , Glasgow and Goff sign much cheaper then we thought? Or is this just my wishful thinking?

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No !

Chark had a second surgery that was kept quiet at the time. I think that was one of the issues that held him back financially.

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I think it’s a fair question.

Guys like Evan Brown, Chark, Elliot and Jamaal Williams the majority of lions fans wanted back for more money than they got in free agency last year.

Holmes will pay his own guys… but he’s also not going to overpay in regards to the market. He’s got some of that ruthless businessman in him. Take it or leave type offers or the villain moves on.

But those examples aren’t the best players on the team. Guys like Goff, St. Brown and Sewell they are the cornerstones of the team. They will get massive deals.




I don’t even think GG wants to be anywhere but here. It’s just a bit of a leverage ploy to pull back his prior comments on the issue.

Jonah and Ducey are the two that potentially could get decently large contracts though personally I don’t expect it.

Ducey is a really tough one for me. One one hand we don’t have a clearly defined space for him. On the other we could really sue that edge for our revenge tour.


I’m beginning to think he’d take another discount on a one year deal here because A. He wants to be here and B. He was hurt this past year.

Human nature to think your stuff is worth more than. It actually is.


Here’s a link to last years estimates, that I made along with OTC’s valuation. Several commented in the thread as well.

Chark was projected by Brad Spielberger at PFF to get a $36M/3yr contract, I think that influenced a lot of people in the forum (including me), but I would have never have guessed that he would have signed a $5M/1yr contract.

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To answer the OP, I tend to more than I should. And yes, I am looking at my den mates.

Old West Gif - IceGif

Not me. I’ve got the cold, hard, ruthlessness of a GM down pat.

Jonah: 1 year, $4M.
Reynolds: Pass
Harris: See ya
Okwara: Buh-bye
DPJ: 1 year, $2M
Badgley: GTFO of here
Skipper: Pound sand
Harris: Leave us!
Firkser: Firk off, sir.
Ceedy Duce: 1 year, $5.5M
Alualu: Alualuminimum deal
JRM: 2 years, $8M
Moseley: 1 year, $6M, all incentives
Graham: 2 years, $10M
Vildor: 1 year, $48.53


Great topic

Fans - even smart fans* - are the worst at both overvaluing and undervaluing their team’s own players, We rarely have a good sense of the market or the value of an individual to the team.

Just a handful of examples: Goff, J Williams, J Williams, Barnes, Anzalone, Melifonwu. There are plenty of others

*not me

I personally just don’t understand passing on Reynolds, assuming he is relatively cheap (3-4mil a year). I’m a pass on DPJ if Reynolds is back.

He made a ton of important catches this year, offers great insurance against injury, and already ha s avery good rapport with Goff. Plus he is a very solid and willing blocker, which is super important to this staff.

I also think you may be a tad high on JRM, but not by much.

Overall though it is a very solid list, IMO.

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Yeah, I’d emphasize the undervalue part more than the overvalue.

The number of armchair GMs here who expect hometown discounts and “prove it” deals for just about every free agent to be signed vastly outnumber those who want to actually pay anybody.

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Brad Holmes posts on the den… confirmed.:laughing:

Vildor for under 50 bucks… I like it.

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It’s wishful thinking. They may take “team friendly” deals, but, that doesn’t mean pennies on the dollar.
They’re going to get paid.

I think a lot of these players think they are worth close to what we think they are worth and often aren’t…

There is a price where the Lions will say “feel free to test the market”. If they get it, they only cared about the money and weren’t the best fit. If they don’t get it, their spot may be filled like Monty>Williams and Jones Jr> Chark.

Even Goff there is a limit to what the Lions will pay. They have a number… call it $48/year/3 years+2. If Goff is significantly above that number, the Lions may decide to let him play out his last year and consider options in the future.

Having Hooker on deck gives you something to look forward to. There is always the franchise tag or the option to negotiate again in the future.


For the most part fan bases always over estimate their teams players. Until they do not value them at all…LOL.

Where I think we all go sideways is the whole off the field and in the locker room aspect of the players and the team. And additionally, a lower skilled player that knows his role and play book well is often more valuable to the team than a more skilled but less knowledgeable player. So there is a balancing act. Not to mention the cold hard cash aspect of the game.

We definitely overvalue players, but we also undervalue them too. Generally speaking a player is either integral or hot garbage to the fans, and we lack the frame of reference to appropriately gauge the wider market because we’re laser focused on just one team.

OTC valuations are weird, they fluctuate wildly on a week by week basis and seem to prioritize short term performance over the wider body of work over several years. Doing it on a stats only basis also misses things like players carrying injuries, and the impact of playing on a good team when a player is less exposed compared with playing on a bad team when a player is more exposed.

My guesses at APY for some of our free agents:

Jackson - $11m
Glasgow - $7m
CJGJ - $6m
Josh - $5m
DPJ - $4m

Everyone else will be in the vet min range.