This shows the value given up (or gained) by each team trading up and how much of a premium they paid.
For the Arnold trade we gave up the equivalent value of the 100th pick, which represented a 14% premium.
For the Manu trade we gave up the equivalent value of the 118th pick, which represented a 125% premium.
For the Vaki trade we gave up the equivalent value of the 148th pick, which represented a 78% premium.
For the Wingo trade we made a profit of the equivalent value of the 228th pick, which represented a 25% discount.
This shows the net value of all Brad’s wheeling and dealing. Combined, for all trades, Brad gave up the equivalent value of the 75th overall pick, and no one gave up more.
I know this is a sensitive subject for a lot of people, but I’m in the boat of using your draft capital to go get six players that you love, rather than eight players that you like.
I trust in Brad for now because he has proven to find that player thats worth even more than that in the long run.
And over all equivalence of a mid 3rd rounder?
On most teams those players are backups/ rotational guys.
So that’s totally worth it to me. Like you said.
6 guys you love and will be massive pieces going for world. Or 4 guys you love. And 4 that are just aight.
I am just going to say that all of this is just fodder for the off season.
The fact is that you can take a dog shit player and make him into a valuable asset to your team based on coaching and clear objectives. I think the Steelers are a great example of these concept.
Where I think the Lions are out performing teams like the Steelers (while following the same footprint) is that the Lions lean heavily on the Rasic along with their own “Lions Culture” formula. I think teams like Pitt tend to weigh culture heavier than Rasic. And I will use Conner Heywood as a prime example. Great kid and a Spartan but I would never want the Lions to draft him. While he has a nice floor his ceiling is clearly capped. And this is where I really like the Lions plan. They are really trying to build this team with “NFL Caliber Plus Athletes” along with having the right culture fit. They are not taking a ton of “football players” that clearly lacking in measurables (looking at you Spielman…LOL, clearly exceptions to every rule).
What it shows to me is that they have a clear plan. They have had a clear plan. And I suspect they will keep focus on their plan. Listen assume MCDC and Holmes plan on being here for 25 years. Then take a step back and adjust your thoughts on the drafts and FA moves.
I know some (not me really) are thinking this is the Lions 1 chance at greatness. But Holmes for sure thinks he is just building a Dynasty.
Also, do not be surprised if MCDC wins a SB or 2 and retires. Whilst Holmes just keep building this thing. MCDC has some of that clear burnout traits in him. Why not have Ben take over 8 years from now?
I guess I am just saying that if we take a step back and look at it from the perspective of long term sustainable growth and competitiveness there is no reason that can not be achieved. With the forced roster turnover that the sport innately has, staying at the top is not as difficult as other sports. If done right the idea of teardowns and rebuilds does not have to be part of an orgs life cycle.
Brad’s net loss is the equivalent value of the 75th. He gave up a lot more than that to get what he did in return. The net loss on a trade scale is the 75th overall pick.
I’m OK with that. You’d like to see it even+, but in the end I’m OK with paying a premium to get the guys you want, too, especially when you’re being true to your board and grabbing guys you have high grades on and not scrambling to plug someone into each roster hole you have. As Brad said, it’s going to be a bloodbath in the DB room with the players they’ve added and I think we’re all going to be thrilled that Manu was added once he’s called into duty.
Notice the team next on the list at bottom is the rams. The team he came from. The rams do quite well in finding late rd players and moving around too. Nothing to worry about at this time. Check back in a couple years and lets see how it looks
Exactly.
Look at virtually every single pick brad has made in those “re drafts” a year or 2 later.
Every single one is higher than where the lions took them
For the Manu pick to make any sense you have to take the valuation approach of what is his value going to be come next draft? If he gets developed and becomes someone who can get snaps this season or next then he was very likely worth a 3rd rounder in 25. If on the hand he does not develop then yeah the Lions just burned a day 2 pick on trash. And lets be clear, a day 2 guy has to be assumed as someone who will contribute and be a starter at some point. Maybe not a plus player but someone who will contribute.
So I feel like the Manu pick and cost needs to be an incomplete and graded come the end of the 2025 season before you can really have a string opinion. Like this whole next year is a red shirt as someone pointed out. And it is not until the end of 25 before you can really assess this pick.
It clearly represents what at least some mentioned during the course of the draft. Holmes was getting taken behind the woodshed on his trades. It was a bit surprising to me and hopefully not something that continues as a trend.
-But-
The bulk of the value lost was on the move from 29 to 24 (104 points). I personally have zero problems with that move. Dallas had all the leverage in that move. Arnold was clearly one of the top tier CBs (1 or 2) and our defensive backfield was in dire need of an influx of talent. And unlike our other trades I don’t have much heartburn with using lower level assets to gain higher level talent. 100% worth the move.
As far as the trade for Manu. Don’t like it. Will never like it. Can’t stand that approach to long term team building. That hopefully does not become a trend for Holmes. But in the end, as far as this thread is concerned, it was a 66 point loss in trade value. As a one off, we’ll be alright. If Holmes continues to use higher level assets to gain lower level assets those negative points can add up and will eventually effect the overall talent level of your team. It’s simply a horrible approach to “long-term” team building.
Culture is king with Brad and it seems certainly like he will not draft you without personally meeting with you. So he has 30 visits and basically targets 5 players at FRP range, 5 at 2RP range and the 20 players from the rest of the draft and then gets j tel on where those 20 players might also go ie who is showing most interest, what are that teams needs and where they are picking.
Then he gets “his guys” as best he can from the draft. Rounds be damned.
I just really trust brad. He is an incredible talent evaluator. More than 95% of his draft picks stick. And my favorite part - the more the media or misled fans bitch about any draft pick when it happens, the better the player turns out.
2021 round 3 - Brad double dips at DT - the media and a lot of the board here trashed him. Result: top 10 DT in the league
2021 round 4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - Lions were desperate for top WR talent. Brad was trashed for waiting until the 4th to hit their biggest need with a guy who wasnt big enough or fast enough to be an NFL guy. Result: top 5 WR in football and the hardest working/most reliable player at the position.
People talked shit about Iffy up until he got on the field last year… they learned
People are still talking shit about Levi… he is about to shut their mouths too.
2022 Brad drafts the first HBCU player ever selected. He believes in him as a pass rusher when no one else does… Houston had a great rookie break out and is about to remind us that he is special.
2023 Brad drafts RB amd MLB in round 1, then TE and S(NCB) in round 2. He gets destroyed by anyone and everyone with a voice. Gets 1 all pro rookie TE Leporta (best rookie TE ever), a 2nd probowl rookie Gibbs, a should’ve been 3rd probowler in Branch, and a future stud MLB in Campbell.
2024 Brad gets a top 10 talent at pick 24 in Arnold. He gets his second highest rated CB in the draft when he double dipped for Rakestraw. (Watch his LSU reps against BTjr and Nabors and you will understand Brads Genius). He gets the craziest project OT ive ever seen in the 4th. A rb/slot wr/safety/special teams juggernaut who ran for 6/69 and caught 5/150 against USC, despite that not even being the position he focused on. He stole Wingo and Mahogeny in this draft too. 2 possible future starters in the 6th.
I can go on and on and on and on but im hungry.
The Positional Villian gets the benefit of the doubt.
Knowledge without wisdom or discernment is worthless…. I’m starting to think Holmes along with Dan were made to do this drafting stuff and do it the right way!!
Look, not trying to disparage your work, @Slay, but there are a number of issues that I have with this type of analysis.
First, there’s the whole “assigning numbers to subjective values doesn’t magically make them objective” problem. These numbers are basically just pulled out of someone’s ass. Yes, they’re going to be directionally correct largely, but that doesn’t mean they scale or stand up to mathematical operations. Use a different pick scoring system, and the same calculations could yield totally different conclusions. That’s not a problem with you, that goes back to the subjective nature of the valuations.
Second, there’s an issue with dependent and independent variables; basically, what is “the truth”. The analysis assumes that the JJ point system is “the truth” for what draft picks are worth. The reality is that this is like a market, so whatever someone pays is what the draft pick is worth. One can get averages, but there simply aren’t enough data points to be able to derive an algorithm that takes all of the variables into account.
My house is worth 400K…no your house is worth exactly what someone was willing to pay. Not a penny more or less.
So in some ways it is the same when drafting a player. Arnold is a top 15 recruit…no he was a 24. That was what someone was willing to pay. He was not worth a 15 since obviously he did not go in the top 15.
And I get it. This is all for fun. You have to start somewhere to assess value.
The newer charts (Rich Hill and the like) are based on historical data, rather than JJ just basically guessing at what they’re worth. That chart is in the trash imo, especially amongst teams. But otherwise I agree with the subjectivity of what we’re talking about.
I look at it like this: if Arnold turns out to be the stud we think he’ll be, then it almost doesn’t matter what we paid. That’s why I’m all for it.
BUT…
If Brad had gotten even value on the historical charts on the Arnold trade specifically, we’d have gotten back like a 4th instead of a 7th.
And what if that 4th turned becomes Maxx Crosby or ARSB? (Or Manu or Vaki)
So it’s both true that we can be all for the trade because if (when) Arnold turns out to be a stud, we will have gravely underpaid.
But it’s also true to believe it could have been even better if Brad had gotten fair value. With his drafting skills, he left a potentially great player on the table.
I have pointed this out as well. We don’t have room to bring in bunches of draft picks and properly develop them. That was fine in 2021 when the roster was bare and everyone was new to the staff amd schemes. But now we need to spend more effort than we did back then on continuing to develop the guys we have (like St Brown). The more rookies you throw in the mix, the more the schemes have to be dumbed down and the less time the staff has to formulate and teach the finer nuances of each position.
Alot of guys failed when they went to New England. Thats draft picks and free agents. One of the reasons why was because part of the Patriot way back then was to keep pushing forward with what they were doing and getting even more into detail with it. So even vets like Chad Ochocinco and Reggie Wayne felt like they were feeding from the fire hose and couldn’t possibly keep up. I believe it was Chad who said the Pats were like a train running down the tracks. And you either jumped on board or not. But they were not going to slow down for you to get on.
He gave up a lot of value but he and the scouts tend to go with their gut against conventional wisdom more than most and have knocked it out of the park more times than not so they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.
with Brad and it seems certainly like he will not draft you without personally meeting with you. So he has 30 visits and basically targets 5 players at FRP range, 5 at 2RP range and the 20 players from the rest of the draft and then gets j tel on where those 20 players might also go ie who is showing most interest, what are that teams needs and where they are picking.