For me, this is part of our identity. Some were upset with the 4th down calls in the NFCCG, but we don’t get that far without going for it at often as we do being part of our identity. We have to take the rough with the smooth.
Personal favorite is running it on 4th and 5 against the Chargers.
It’s a bit depressing how often our offense disappeared in games last year.
If we don’t go for it on 4th and goal against the Rams, we lose. We literally would not have been in the NFC Championship with a conservative mindset.
Yep, I hope Dan never takes his foot off the gas.
That said this guy’s grades were arbitrary af and I found myself constantly disagreeing with him. All of his “take the points” opinions were based on hindsight. Newsflash, Dan doesn’t have the benefit of hindsight.
Agreed
Part of our identity is why I don’t think we NEED a Jake Bates to save us on ST. With Vaki and adding CJ Moore back at the end of the roster, we will have plenty of avenues for creativity on 4th downs.
If the whole league starts doing it with our level of success, then and only then maybe we look to pivot. It’s a coaching and team mindset so it won’t be for everyone but it is surely for us, long term.
It’s not about saving us on ST…we’re already better than most teams. It’s about More unpredictability, more options, getting better at every position every time possible, and culture fit.
Sometimes being aggressive means kicking a long FG instead of punting…sometmies it looks like going for it.
I want Bates to sign here so bad, because margins can get razor thin in the playoffs, and you win in the margins. I love the acquisition of Vaki, Moore, that we have Foxy-boy, & JRM. Fox was very instrumental in a few of our wins last year. Friggin punter is a weapon…the kicker could be too. I say we make it happen, especially when you consider risk/reward - I see a big upgrade for very little financial loss.
Totally agree, man. We’re innovative and teams are starting to emulate us, even in the draft. Players and fans love it too.
Bates will come in handy when it’s 4th and 5/6+. Dan goes for it when the math tells him to go for it, and usually that’s 4th & short-ish. Context matters of course, we go for it plenty on 4th & long when we’re behind, or maybe when the offense is feeling itself he might do 4th & 5 like he did on the Montgomery run. But for the most part it’s the distance that makes the decision for him.
The highest value of Bates is when we’re between midfield and the opponents’ 35 yard line on 4th down. We punted 12 times in that situation last year. If he makes 10-12, that’s another 30 points for the year, almost 2 extra points per game.
The other 15 times we were in that situation, we went for it, picking up the first down 7 times – twice on a penalty. (That said, half of those shots were playing from behind, like in Baltimore or in Chicago.)
I’m not suggesting we go for it less on 4th down, just that we kick field goals instead of punting. 
Plus, if your FG kicker is inconsistent, that plays into the math. A FG kicker that is amazing changes all of those numbers, & even what is/isn’t considered a gamble.
So I would need to spend some time on that whole thing
All the attempts against Ravens would be eliminated
All the “we are behind and have no choice” would be eliminated
That should boil it down to maybe 30 legit decisions because those others were not decisions
Then you look at the results on those 30 and overlay costs. Like when we went for it in our own end and did not make it what happened? TD? FG? Or did defense force a punt or turnover ?
More work needs to be done to have a real analysis
Process over results imo. It wasn’t a bad decision just because it didn’t work, or because our defense failed to stop them. As long as the variables considered are true and consistent, then over time it will be a win.
Now obviously you try and factor as many variables as possible into the equation beforehand. Yards-to-go, the talent of our defense, how we’re playing, the weather, the kicker, the psychological impact on our guys, the resiliency of our team, on and on and on. There’s a lot of variables to the equation, but many of them will have been sorted before the decision has to be made (our team being resilient last year, for instance).
I think Dan has a really good pulse on most of those things. He calls it his gut, but it’s based on a factual knowledge of his team (we’re built for this, etc…). So as long as he stays consistent - which means DON’T listen to the talking heads telling him to tone it down - we’ll be better of for it in the long run.
Bottom line → we’re coming in to whoop your MF’n ass.
Some of it plays into the energy of the game and the energy of the players.
Most ppl look at it like it’s a math problem…it’s not. Our OL, our QB, JRM/Fox/Vaki…Fipp…emphasis on that part of the game.
Probability of our success is higher than most teams. Also, this shows the players you believe in them and makes it more fun for them. We are showing up at a completely different level than most teams in ways they dont’ understand. Campbell coaches with his intuition (gut) often, & he understands energy better than any other coach in the nfl.
So let me say this.
I would suggest that it also needs to be carved up a bit more.
Fake Punts vs going for it with Offense.
Again I realize I am carving this up quite a bit. But if you want to even try to have an opinion on “going for it on 4th” you need to make sure you are looking at data or events that have as much like for like situations as possible.
I think you would see the statistical analysis prove out that MCDC is way way way on the side of best decision was made based on results.
I guarantee our brass has done this, based on millions of simulations with thousands of different variables.
I guess my point is this.
We love it for the most part as fans. But it would be nice to have a good analysis done to see if MCDC is really on the right side of the law with all his gutsy calls.
With this said. I feel like I have seen some analysis on some of the 4th downs that went badly and the difference in the Lions chance to win typically does not change whether he makes it on 4th or kicked a FG. And it also has shown that the conversion on many of these 4th down plays if converted moved the needle on chance for victory.
So I am pretty sure most of these would show that game analysis will show he is usually take a low down side high upside risk.
I think the vast majority would show he’s in the right.
The inherent problem with this approach is that when it doesn’t work, the decision gets blamed right away, whereas when it does work and contributes to increasing our chances of winning, it gets lost in the shuffle of what happened during the rest of the game, his other decisions, etc…
The conservative approach, conversely, works in reverse. The coach gets lauded right away for taking the points (FG), and it isn’t until later - say after a team drives the length of the field to beat you with a TD - that it becomes apparent the coach should have gone for it. But by then he has escaped the blame, the football cognoscenti still leans toward conservative decision-making so they will agree with his decision and blame the defense - not the decision - for costing them the game.
So it takes a coach who’s very comfortable in his own skin to actually do this, even though the numbers say it will lead to the most success in the long run. Because he won’t be praised for making the decision when it goes right, but will get pilloried for making it when it goes wrong.
I’m happy that they go for it–give us a chance to reach a first down/ new set of downs… you keep punting it to the opponent, you give them extra chances to burn you or even score-because, you gave the football back to them instead of trying for other opportunities. NOW I KNOW that at times it’s 4th and a lot of yards–& it’s just insane to try to get a first…SO you punt it away. it just is the best option…but if you can make it-with the game on the line…why not do that as often as you possibly can?
Here’s a list of all the Lions’ 4th Down plays last year.
Yard Line: Yards to Opponent’s end zone. So, the Detroit 40 is listed as 60.
Result: T = Opponent got the ball, # = Yard Line of possession
Yield: Result of the Drive. Parentheses indicate an opponent score on the next drive.
| Yard Line | To Go | Choice | Result | Yield | Game | Event No | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 3 | Punt | T 13 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 83 | 2 | Fake Punt | 80 YL | TD | 1 | 2 | |
| 57 | 8 | Punt | T 18 | 1 | 3 | ||
| 58 | 10 | Pass | T 58 | 1 | 4 | End of Half | |
| 89 | 6 | Punt | T 42 | 1 | 5 | ||
| 40 | 3 | Punt | T 10 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 67 | 2 | Punt | T 32 | 1 | 7 | ||
| 45 | 2 | Pass | T 42 | 1 | 8 | 4th Quarter Ball Control attempt | |
| 31 | 4 | Pass | T 31 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 89 | 5 | Punt | T 36 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 11 | 3 | Pass | 5 YL | TD | 2 | 3 | |
| 55 | 2 | Pass | T 55 | (TD) | 2 | 4 | |
| 20 | 3 | FG | FG | FG | 2 | 5 | |
| 82 | 6 | Punt | T 12 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 18 | 6 | FG | FG | FG | 3 | 2 | |
| 6 | 6 | FG | FG | FG | 3 | 3 | |
| 63 | 10 | Punt | T 20 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 66 | 1 | Punt | T 19 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 42 | 7 | Punt | T 17 | 3 | 6 | ||
| 72 | 7 | Punt | T 35 | 3 | 7 | ||
| 59 | 6 | Punt | T 8 | 3 | 8 | ||
| 14 | 14 | FG | FG | FG | 4 | 1 | |
| 64 | 14 | Punt | T 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 19 | 6 | FG | FG | FG | 4 | 3 | |
| 72 | 9 | Punt | T 30 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 73 | 6 | Punt | T 34 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 12 | 3 | FG | 6 YL | 4 | 6 | Penalty | |
| 1 | 1 | Run | TD | TD | 4 | 7 | |
| 78 | 19 | Punt | T 65 | 4 | 8 | ||
| 24 | 3 | Pass | 19 YL | BC | 4 | 9 | Ball control success |
| 37 | 4 | Pass | T 37 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 29 | 1 | Run | 26 YL | TD | 5 | 2 | |
| 37 | 1 | Run | 32 YL | 5 | 3 | Penalty | |
| 43 | 21 | Punt | T 10 | 5 | 4 | ||
| 68 | 6 | Punt | T 16 | 5 | 5 | ||
| 51 | 7 | Punt | T 8 | 6 | 1 | ||
| 12 | 10 | FG | FG | FG | 6 | 2 | |
| 50 | 1 | Punt | T 20 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 87 | 2 | Punt | T 42 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 34 | 13 | FG | T 41 | (FG) | 6 | 5 | Missed FG |
| 18 | 8 | FG | FG | FG | 6 | 6 | |
| 44 | 14 | Punt | T 2 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 62 | 10 | Punt | T 32 | 7 | 1 | ||
| 69 | 4 | Punt | T 8 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 68 | 3 | Punt | T 20 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 48 | 8 | Pass | T 48 | 7 | 4 | Down 28 | |
| 50 | 25 | Punt | T 20 | 7 | 5 | Down 28 | |
| 40 | 15 | Pass | 50 YL | 7 | 6 | (Penalty) | |
| 45 | 4 | Pass | 30 YL | 7 | 7 | Down 28 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pass | T 6 | 7 | 8 | Down 28 | |
| 36 | 1 | Pass | T 20 | 7 | 9 | Down 35 | |
| 20 | 10 | Pass | T 20 | 7 | 10 | Down 32 | |
| 53 | 5 | Pass | 47 YL | 7 | 11 | Down 32 | |
| 26 | 8 | FG | FG | FG | 8 | 1 | |
| 89 | 10 | Punt | T 41 | 8 | 2 | ||
| 8 | 8 | Pass | 13 YL | 8 | 3 | (Penalty) | |
| 13 | 13 | FG | FG | FG | 8 | 4 | |
| 15 | 9 | FG | FG | FG | 8 | 5 | |
| 42 | 1 | Run | 36 YL | FG | 8 | 6 | Penalty |
| 34 | 8 | FG | FG | FG | 8 | 7 | From Event 6 |
| 8 | 8 | FG | T 16 | 8 | 8 | Missed FG | |
| 36 | 2 | Pass | 31 YL | BC | 8 | 9 | Ball control success |
| 14 | 12 | FG | FG | FG | 9 | 1 | |
| 28 | 5 | Run | 22 YL | DOWNS | 9 | 2 | |
| 13 | 1 | Run | 10 YL | DOWNS | 9 | 3 | From Event 2 |
| 1 | 1 | Pass | T 1 | DOWNS | 9 | 4 | From Event 2 |
| 1 | 1 | Run | TD | TD | 9 | 5 | |
| 37 | 13 | Punt | T 8 | 9 | 6 | ||
| 26 | 2 | Pass | 20 YL | FG | 9 | 7 | Game Winner |
| 22 | 12 | FG | FG | FG | 9 | 8 | From Event 7 |
| 52 | 7 | Punt | T 15 | 10 | 1 | ||
| 78 | 13 | Punt | T 9 | 10 | 2 | ||
| 52 | 2 | Punt | T 14 | 11 | 1 | ||
| 35 | 4 | Pass | T 35 | 11 | 2 | ||
| 89 | 15 | Punt | T 44 | 11 | 3 | ||
| 77 | 4 | Fake Punt | T 77 | (TD) | 11 | 4 | |
| 31 | 7 | Pass | T 39 | 11 | 5 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 12 | 7 | Pass | T 12 | 11 | 6 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 67 | 1 | Pass | 60 YL | 11 | 7 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 75 | 19 | Punt | T 24 | 12 | 1 | ||
| 64 | 7 | Punt | T 16 | 12 | 2 | ||
| 66 | 1 | Punt | T 10 | 12 | 3 | ||
| 8 | 7 | FG | FG | FG | 12 | 4 | |
| 70 | 7 | Punt | T 38 | 12 | 5 | ||
| 8 | 4 | Run | 13 YL | 12 | 6 | (Penalty) | |
| 13 | 9 | FG | FG | FG | 12 | 7 | |
| 75 | 10 | Punt | T 18 | 12 | 8 | ||
| 63 | 18 | Punt | T 9 | 13 | 1 | ||
| 35 | 10 | Pass | T 12 | 13 | 2 | ||
| 38 | 3 | Pass | 21 YL | TD | 13 | 3 | |
| 71 | 6 | Punt | T 28 | 13 | 4 | ||
| 68 | 3 | Punt | T 48 | 13 | 5 | ||
| 84 | 11 | Punt | T 50 | 13 | 6 | ||
| 66 | 1 | Run | T 70 | 13 | 7 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 38 | 17 | Pass | T 38 | 13 | 8 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 67 | 29 | Pass | 72 YL | 13 | 9 | Down 15 4th Q – Penalty | |
| 62 | 24 | Pass | T 38 | 13 | 10 | Down 15 4th Q | |
| 50 | 6 | Punt | T 29 | 14 | 1 | ||
| 39 | 12 | Punt | T 20 | 14 | 2 | ||
| 49 | 10 | Punt | T 16 | 14 | 3 | ||
| 86 | 19 | Punt | T 38 | 14 | 4 | ||
| 10 | 2 | Pass | TD | TD | 14 | 5 | |
| 74 | 6 | Punt | T 30 | 15 | 1 | ||
| 18 | 6 | FG | FG | FG | 15 | 2 | |
| 34 | 1 | Run | 16 YL | TD | 15 | 3 | |
| 7 | 1 | Run | 5 YL | TD | 15 | 4 | SAME AS 15.3 |
| 58 | 3 | Punt | T 16 | 15 | 5 | ||
| 59 | 13 | Punt | 64 YL | 15 | 6 | (Penalty) | |
| 64 | 18 | Punt | T 12 | 15 | 7 | ||
| 23 | 10 | FG | FG | FG | 16 | 1 | |
| 47 | 15 | Punt | T 11 | 16 | 2 | ||
| 70 | 5 | Punt | T 20 | 16 | 3 | ||
| 72 | 2 | Fake Punt | 41 YL | 16 | 4 | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pass | T 4 | 16 | 5 | ||
| 55 | 5 | Punt | T 9 | 16 | 6 | ||
| 41 | 2 | Pass | 37 YL | TD | 16 | 7 | |
| 7 | 3 | Run | 12 YL | 16 | 8 | (Penalty) | |
| 12 | 8 | FG | FG | FG | 16 | 9 | |
| 70 | 5 | Punt | T 27 | 16 | 10 | ||
| 71 | 6 | Punt | T 10 | 17 | 1 | ||
| 45 | 1 | Run | 44 YL | TD | 17 | 2 | |
| 57 | 3 | Punt | T 2 | 17 | 3 | ||
| 65 | 4 | Punt | T 18 | 17 | 4 | ||
| 48 | 1 | Pass | 28 YL | TD | 17 | 5 | |
| 49 | 2 | Punt | T 20 | 17 | 6 | ||
| 21 | 15 | FG | FG | FG | 17 | 7 | |
| 58 | 5 | Punt | T 10 | 17 | 8 |