F Them Picks

The Den
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Those are the famous words of Brad Holmes old boss in LA Les Snead. I went back and researched which players we would have had instead of trading for Broderick Martin, Giovanni Manu and TeSlaa. If we had just stayed as God intended, we wouldnt be the god awful defense we are now. We would have had the following players.

Again, I dug into the actual trades and then treated each surrendered pick as a hypothetical Detroit pick at that exact spot, restricting the alternatives to defensive players or offensive linemen.

Brodric Martin

2023 #122, #139, #168

Nick Herbig, Henry To’oTo’o, Owen Pappoe

Giovanni Manu

2025 #92

Jared Wilson

Isaac TeSlaa

2025 #102 + 2026 #81 + #100

Cody Simon + Emmanuel Pregnon + Jaishawn Barham

And there are some very interesting “what ifs” here, particularly the Manu and TeSlaa trades.

1. Brodric Martin — 2023

Detroit traded up from #122**,** #139 and #168 to #96 to select Martin. The Cardinals received those three picks.

Pick #122 — Nick Herbig, LB/EDGE, Pittsburgh

This is the first big one.

Nick Herbig was still sitting there until pick #132, where Pittsburgh took him. Daniel Jeremiah had Herbig all the way up at No. 75 overall on his board.

And unlike most Day-3 lottery tickets, Herbig has actually developed:

  • 2023: 3 sacks

  • 2024: 5.5 sacks

  • 2025: 7.5 sacks

  • 16 career sacks through 2025

  • Increasing defensive snap share and six starts in 2025.

My pick at #122: Nick Herbig.

That’s a pretty substantial miss in retrospect.

Pick #139 — Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Houston

This one is more interesting.

Henry To’oTo’o was actually selected at #167, meaning he was available when Detroit’s theoretical #139 came around. Jeremiah ranked him No. 83 overall in his 2023 pre-dr ranking

He wasn’t a future Pro Bowler, but we’re restricting ourselves to D/OL, and at #139 he represents a much more interesting prospect than the players actually selected around that point.

My pick at #139: Henry To’oTo’o.

Pick #168 — Owen Pappoe, LB, Arizona

This one is almost funny because #168 was the exact pick Arizona ultimately used on Pappoe — the same pick Detroit gave up in the Martin trade.

Pappoe was an extraordinary athlete but had limited college production and never developed into a major NFL contributor. NFL’s scouting report specifically questioned whether he had starter-level instincts.

So if we’re strictly doing:

“Who could Detroit have selected with #168?”

then Owen Pappoe is the cleanest answer, because that’s literally who Arizona took with Detroit’s pick.

But this is also the weakest of the three alternatives.

Martin trade alternate haul

So my hypothetical Martin replacement would be:

#122 — Nick Herbig
#139 — Henry To’oTo’o
#168 — Owen Pappoe

The fascinating part is that Herbig alone has already produced substantially more NFL value than Martin. Martin was the #96 pick and has only one career start through 2025.

Winner of the “what could we have gotten?” exercise: Nick Herbig.

2. Giovanni Manu — 2025 #92

This trade is much cleaner.

Detroit sent the Jets 2025 third-round pick #92 for the right to move into the 2024 fourth round and select Giovanni Manu at #126.

The Jets ultimately used #92 on Jalen Milroe, so Detroit didn’t have #92 available in 2025.

My choice: Jared Wilson, C, New England — #95

This is probably the strongest “what if” of the entire exercise.

Jared Wilson was available for three more selections after #92 and went #95 to New England.

He immediately became a starter:

2025: 13 starts in 13 games
2026: starting again
Career through the start of 2026: 14 starts in 14 games.

And he was a third-round pick, exactly the kind of player Detroit was giving up the pick to acquire.

Other interesting D/OL players after #92 included:

  • Charles Grant, OT — #99

  • Caleb Rogers, G — #98

  • Upton Stout, CB — #100

Upton Stout has also become a legitimate contributor, playing 16 games with four starts as a rookie.

But for the Lions specifically, I’d take:

#92 → Jared Wilson

A starting NFL center is a much more compelling outcome than a developmental tackle who barely played.

And Wilson wasn’t some obscure prospect who fell through the cracks: Daniel Jeremiah had him highly enough to be selected in the third round.

3. Isaac TeSlaa — 2025

This is the really interesting one.

Detroit moved from #102 to #70 to take TeSlaa.

The price:

  • 2025 #102

  • 2026 #81

  • 2026 #100

Detroit received:

  • #70 — Isaac TeSlaa

  • #182

  • 2026 sixth-rounder

The Jaguars received all three of Detroit’s surrendered picks.

So let’s do all three.

2025 #102 — Cody Simon, LB, Arizona

This is my favorite alternative.

Cody Simon went #115, so he was still available at #102. He had a terrific rookie season:

16 games, 9 starts, 76 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 13 defensive pressures.

And this wasn’t merely a statistical accumulation thing. He played 53% of Arizona’s defensive snaps as a rookie.

For comparison, the player Detroit actually selected at #70, TeSlaa, had 16 catches for 239 yards and six TDs as a rookie.

So if Detroit’s objective with this exercise is:

“Give me the best defensive player or OL who was still sitting there at #102.”

I’m taking:

#102 → Cody Simon

2026 #81 — Emmanuel Pregnon, G

This is where the exercise gets particularly interesting because we now have the actual 2026 draft.

The Jaguars used Detroit’s first 2026 third-rounder at #81 on DT Albert Regis.

But Detroit could have taken Emmanuel Pregnon.

Pregnon went #88 to Jacksonville.

And NFL’s post-draft assessment specifically called Pregnon Jacksonville’s best pick in terms of value, projecting him as a potential starting guard.

More importantly, PFF’s pre-draft analysis had him as its No. 1 interior offensive lineman still available after Round 1, citing an 86.7 PFF grade in 2025 and only one sack allowed in 2025.

So:

#81 → Emmanuel Pregnon

That’s a pretty compelling hypothetical for Detroit’s OL.

2026 #100 — Jaishawn Barham, EDGE/LB

This is another interesting one.

Jacksonville used Detroit’s second 2026 third-rounder at #100 on safety Jalen Huskey.

But at #100, Jaishawn Barham was still available.

He went #92 to Dallas, wait — and that’s important: he actually went #92, so he was NOT available at #100.

Therefore we have to respect your “still available at that spot” rule.

The best eligible D/OL prospect at #100 or later becomes much more debatable.

PFF’s final 2026 board had:

  • Jaishawn Barham — #102

  • Logan Jones — #95

  • Markel Bell — #101

  • Kage Casey — #121

  • Landon Robinson — #122

  • various defensive prospects after that.

Since Barham actually went #92, we can’t use him.

So I’m going with:

#100 → Kage Casey, G, Denver

Casey went #111 and was viewed as a useful guard/tackle prospect. NFL’s draft evaluation described him as adding depth at both positions.

This is much less certain than the other selections because we’re talking about a 2026 rookie and there’s not enough NFL history yet.

So what does the TeSlaa trade look like?

If Detroit had simply kept the picks:

2025 #102 → Cody Simon
2026 #81 → Emmanuel Pregnon
2026 #100 → Kage Casey

versus:

2025 #70 → Isaac TeSlaa

That is a fascinating comparison.

And remember, Detroit also received #182 and a 2026 sixth in the actual trade, so it isn’t simply a three-for-one swap.

My overall “alternate Lions draft”

If I were constructing the exercise exactly according to your rules, I’d have:

Brodric Martin trade

2023 #122 — Nick Herbig, LB/EDGE
2023 #139 — Henry To’oTo’o, LB
2023 #168 — Owen Pappoe, LB

Giovanni Manu trade

2025 #92 — Jared Wilson, C

Isaac TeSlaa trade

2025 #102 — Cody Simon, LB
2026 #81 — Emmanuel Pregnon, G
2026 #100 — Kage Casey, G

The really eye-opening names

If we’re looking specifically for “holy crap, Detroit could have had that guy”, I’d flag three:

:1st_place_medal: Nick Herbig — #132

The best retrospective alternative to one of the Martin picks.

He’s already at 16 career sacks, including 7.5 in 2025.

:2nd_place_medal: Jared Wilson — #95

Probably the cleanest alternate to the Manu trade.

Detroit surrendered a 2025 third-rounder for Manu. That theoretical pick could have become a starting NFL center at #95. Wilson started 13 games as a rookie.

:3rd_place_medal: Emmanuel Pregnon — #88

This one could become very interesting.

He was one of PFF’s highest-rated remaining interior OL prospects entering the 2026 draft, and NFL’s post-draft evaluation called him a potential future starter.

One important caveat

I wouldn’t call these definitive “Detroit would have drafted X” conclusions. Drafts aren’t static boards: teams have different schemes, medical evaluations, interviews, positional p Value, PFF grades, sacks, Pro Bowls, All-Pro selections, etc., and calculate the total “lost value” of each trade.**

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Somebody watched ‘Sliding Doors’ recently.

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If I was able to go back in time and change only one things and the relive live thru those changes…. This is what I’d do

:zany_face::smiling_face_with_sunglasses::collision::double_exclamation_mark::mending_heart::folded_hands:

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He was waived by the Cardinals so I’m not sure that is all that much better of a pick.

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I appreciate you doing the research and looking all this up, it’s nice to see.

I’m taking you at your word because I’m not fact checking it!

This is probably my biggest gripe with what Holmes has done over the past few years, so again thank you for laying all that out.

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(post deleted by author)

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https://youtu.be/9n3A_-HRFfc?si=4n1SlFoZUeo4TV6S

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Would the Lions not have drafted the same position guys as BMart Manu and TeSlaa?

Probably in BroMart, maybe in Manu and likely in TeSlaa.

Some of the alternate guys in this drafting exercise we could have gotten may not have thrived in our system the way they did in others nor would they have gotten the playing time possibly

I think this is a great exercise to go through and I am both thankful and impressed somebody did it to that degree of depth and thoughtfulness. Alternate realities are difficult things to get a handle on though

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I appreciate this because and people are quick to bring up draft capital without naming names of players that are actually good who would be available

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It’s almost like folks are pissed off he’s not aggressive enough to trade away firsts, but also pissed off he’s too aggressive in trading away thirds and fifths.

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No offence but this is a exercise in absolute futility for a few reasons.

First off….you are using hindsight and are cherry picking the players with knowledge that was not available at the time.

Secondly and more importantly….with ever pick you change you alter the picks behind them. You can not just swap out the player and claim everything that followed it would remain the same. That is why these types of evaluations are essentially useless.

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Okay.

Brad also traded up for Derrick Barnes, Jameson Williams, Brian Branch, Tate Ratledge…

My understanding is that God intended for the Lions to stay put in those cases too, no?