For This Team to Turn the Corner...?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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Most of us here have watched one GM after another work with one coach after another and over their first or second years they fail. The team doesn’t turn a corner. If some coaches are good and lucky the Lions make the playoffs twice under their leadership (like Caldwell). Jim Schwartz’s program crested in 2011 but in the end he only went to the playoffs once. We all know the overall history of this team.

I don’t think there is a magic bullet for building a team. Get a good coach, hire good assistants, draft well, develop players and coaches and see where that takes you. Yep, teams get luck at times with magic bullets like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and so on but overall good drafting, player development, good cap management and smart free agent decisions is the way forward.

With that said 2021’s record sucks. This season sucked. Dan Campbell took his lumps and we as fans all watched this team get blown out and embarrassed. Is that a trend OR is the beginning of the rise?

Here is why I am feeling optimistic:

  1. I am still VERY bullish on Goff here. His 4th down throws upset me to no end but hell, the offense was a total shit show at that point. I watched Goff look very, very good at times and very, very bad at times. Luckily he played his best ball late, he won a game on the last play and I saw toughness. I am good with that. Jared is 28 in October and I think he is set to play his best ball these next two seasons.

  2. I really, really like Brad’s first draft class. Sewell is a monster who can play either side now. If he stays health he has All Pro Potential. As much as Levi and Alim failed to really kick ass they got in player development time. Levi didn’t even play in 2020. I have a LOT of faith that these players will take huge strides in 2022 with a full offseason and the experience they gained in 2021. Playing DT is not easy and most guys are simply not Suh. I also LOVE the playing time for CB Iffy as well as Amon Ra and Derrick Barnes. Cap’s viewpoints aside Barnes is part of the future here in 2022. He took his lumps in 2021 but he flashed upside and potential while making too many mistakes week in and week out. We have a FG kicker now too. The young guys will lead the charge here in Detroit in 2022. We watched young guy after young guy play well at CB in 2021. Injuries suck but some of these young guys really did well and that investment should pay off starting in 2022 now.

  3. We have $ available to us in 2022. I like what Brad did overall (WR decisions sucked) with limited resources. I am excited to see how he games out our own free agents, signing a couple critical free agents of our own and watching him find starters and maybe a critical depth piece or two while retaining a few of our own guys.

  4. As much as I hate the record and some of the games this season Dan Campbell seems like he has a shot at bucking history and coaching a competitive team in 2022. Dan took his lumps, made mistakes, owned his mistakes and made tough calls like taking over play calling duties, going for it on 4th downs and calling out guys to motivate them. I like Dan’s staff still and I expect most of them to come back. There will likely be drama for the OC position.

For this team to turn a corner Brad Holmes has a VERY tough job starting immediately with his own free agents, gaming out his cap space appropriately, using his vision to build this team and by keeping the right mix of Lion free agents. Brad cannot make the mistakes of the past by overpaying for depth guys, letting players we developed walk OR overpaying other team free agents because we are desperate (outside WR!). ALL of our GMs have really messed up in years two and three.

Brad has to decide on guys like CB Amani Oruwariye for example. We cannot let him walk after 2022. We also cannot overpay for a guy like Tracy Walker. For example Tracy Walker is 27 in February and Marcus Williams is 26 in September. If Brad brings back Walker it has to be for a considerable bargain versus Marcus Williams who is overall better. For example is Williams will cost say $9.5 million/year for 5 years and I can get Tracy under contract for $6 million/year I will sign Walker but I ain’t overpaying Walker because I am afraid of losing Walker and then also losing out on Williams. Brad has to figure that out. My guess is we bring Walker back for somewhere between $5-7 million saving roughly $2-3 million/season over what Williams will sign elsewhere.

Brad needs to be smart with how he deals with Trey Flowers and Charles Harris. It is easy to say "cut Flowers and re-sign Harris) but Charles Harris is a back up on a good team. And Charles needs to be paid like an important back up. Trey Flowers is the better football player but he isn’t explosive. Trey is 29 in 2022 (August) and he is a solid football player who has battled injuries here and is paid WAY too much $. The question is cut Flowers outright OR…get him to take a serious pay reduction? I straight up LOVE Flowers as a moveable chess piece on less snaps overall with a slashed contract. How much is Trey worth on the open market to a team? On a contended Trey would be paid like an expensive back up and that is what Holmes needs to do…pay Flowers like a back up. Same with Charles.

We KNOW we can get a top rookie edge player here in 2022 if we want that player here.

I am all in on watching Holmes attack this off-season and I expect him to be aggressive. My bold prediction right now is that Holmes sees the game differently than we do. He sees a passing league, he sees what is available in free agency and the draft and I bet he looks at Kyle Hamilton and sees a path forward to fielding mean ass secondary. Edge guys can be taken out of a game plan by double teaming a player OR rolling away from a guy. And I also believe that. BUT…if Holmes sees 6’4" Kyle Hamilton as that missing piece damn it, just draft him. Back to the idea about making good draft decisions…we players here who can play this game at a high level.

I am all in on watching Holmes work as the future is laid out right now. Year one is easy overall. Your choices are limited by the cap, players under contract already and who is available. Now Holmes has his second season to really put this team on firm ground. Football season 2022 cannot get here fast enough for me!

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I think you make some good points definitely. I do think Flowers being gone is a foregone conclusion. He is not going to take a serious pay cut, and he is almost 30. We have talented young guys to provide depth, what we need is a game changer, and that clearly isn’t Flowers. Dangle him as trade bait as we have time to do that, but I doubt we find any biters.

I also think you are way under-estimating the safety market. Justin Simmons just re-signed with Denver for 15mil+ a year. Marcus Williams is definitely on his level and will get close to that in FA. I think Walker is looking at around 7-8 and he may want to sign a short term contract so he can hit the market again soon.

I do think Hamilton is an option, but I truly believe we sign Marcus Williams. Just makes way too much sense to me given his relationship with Glenn and the need we have at safety. Glenn also mentioned they want Walker back. I personally believe Walker and Williams are our starting safeties in 2022, and that would put us out of the market to draft Hamilton.

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1811, you might be right about the safety market. Marcus Williams was franchise tagged for $10.6 million in 2021. It very well might take $12-15 million to sign a top free safety in 2022. Point is unless Tracy Walker comes in significantly cheaper I am going after Marcus Williams.

Say Marcus signs a $14 million/season deal. I am willing to pay Walker 2/3rds if that or roughly $8 million. So if Holmes game plans on that, for example, he should target signing Tracy Walker and Charles Harris for the $ that would go towards Marcus Williams. That is how Holmes needs to think.

There are no Lion free agents that are critical to me. CB Amani is locked down for 2022 but if I am Holmes I act now.

Our depth guys need to be value guys period. Jalen Reeves Maybin is not a starter on a great defense and neither is Charles Harris. Treat depth as depth. And lock down critical players. Period.

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I actually think Schwartz would have done well if he had an experienced general manager backing him up. Once again the fords hired a rookie gm with no experience in the position and instead of building on the young talent we had they screwed it all up. They let players like cliff avril walk, screwed up the suh and fairley negotiations so they both walked. Drafted ebron at 10 with a ton of bigger needs on the roster. I’m actually surprised we won as much as we did. Especially given that Aaron Rogers and Adrian Peterson we’re both still in their prime.

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I refer to the article in the other thread…

Winning comes from the heart and soul not the body…. Culture

Our leadership as a whole went with this vision, and understands getting those they will play into it as well…

Culture is what made this team grind, we keep the culture and we will get the wins imho

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Everybody talks about culture and changing culture but no one knows what that means. I know I don’t really know what that means.

In the NFL teams lose because they have bad GMs making overall poor decisions including hiring bad coaches and poor personnel decisions are made often using bad information.

There are no magic shortcuts to becoming a winner.

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I think folks should look at what the Rams did over time since they hired Les Snead as their GM in 2012:

The Rams made good drafting decisions and bad drafting decisions but no decision was more important than hiring HC Sean McVay. GM Les Snead hired HC Jeff Fisher in 2012 and Les watched the Rams go 31-48-1 under Jeff for five years. Wow. Bad. Then Les hired Sean McVay in 2017 and the Rams have gone 55-25 the last 5 years with one 2021 game to go. Did the Rams suddenly find culture?

The Rams went 17-31 in three seasons with DT Aaron Donald. the Rams also drafted Gurley in 2015 and they went 11-21 with Gurley and Aaron Donald. They also had Michael Brockers and a few other solid pieces in place.

Coaching matters and going for it matters. Les became FAR more aggressive in terms of being active in the trade market and the free agent market with McVay as his head coach.

Brad Holmes handed HC Dan Campbell a bad hand at WR in 2021 that got worse when Tyrell Williams went down and Cephus went down. That is the opposite that Les did for McVay i terms of WR in 2016.

I expect Brad Holmes will be aggressive in 2022. Good coaching wins and good players win when those elements are combined. As much as I like Dan Campbell still it is fair to question his ability. Dan made some critical mistakes that likely cost the Lions games in 2021. But that is a sunk cost now and is in the rear view mirror. That investment in Dan has been made and paid for. We now have to hope Brad gives Dan better tools and that Dan and his staff know how to use them in 2022.

We don’t have Aaron Donald or Todd Gurley in 2022 and we are unlikely to have that kind of talent on the roster in 2022. I don’t see quick twitch killer defensive line players like Dwight Freeney, T. Suggs or Aaron Donald. This team will mostly be defined by draft picks over time versus free agents although free agents will play a critical role here still.

Aidan Hutchinson is a guy I love. 6’6" and 265ish pounds. A BIG boy with 18.5 career college sacks. But not JJ Watt big. And Aidan lost 2020 so that should not count much against him BUT damn, that leaves you wanting more overall. Kayvon Thibodeaux has 19 sacks. And yes 2020 hurt him too. But damn…Aaron Donald had 27.5 sacks as a DT. Dwight Freeney had 34 college sacks. Terrell Suggs had 44 college sacks and no…sacks are not everything as yes some players suck in the NFL at pressure when they were good at sacks in college. But the guys I listed above put something amazing on film for those that cared to watch their game and I cannot say the same about the top DEs in this draft. Further, while DEs are important one can argue that taking a DE out of a game is easier by chipping and simply moving away from them overall.

Folks will stop writing about culture when the Lions start winning games. And that means coaches doing a good job coaching and the Lions having real NFL talent on their roster.

My guess is Brad Holmes will take a Dumars Bad Boys II take on the Lions. Just roll out one good player after another with a deep bench. And I think that starts with drafting Kyle Hamilton. I cannot think of a bigger roster upgrade from what we have now to adding Hamilton in that role. Keeping Tracy Walker or adding Marcus Williams gives the Lions maybe the best safety pairing on paper in the NFL (really looking at adding Williams). Kyle Hamilton will affect every play either in run support OR in coverage and a guy that big (6’4" and 220 pounds) can cover backs and TEs. I also think Holmes will add a talented LBer in rd. 1 thus building this defense right through the middle with Kyle Hamilton, possibly Marcus Williams (unless Walker becomes a nice discount guy), DT Levi Onwuzurike, DT Alim McNeill and LBer Derrick Barnes who will have a role here. That makes sense to me.

I also think Brad Holmes will aggressively go after guys he wants and needs here and I now think Brad isn’t going to let bench players eat away at his ability to get playmakers in here. I think Brad knows we need a real #1 WR even with Aman Ra looking good. I think WR Josh Reynolds signs a cheap deal here and I welcome that.

Culture is about coaches and talent and Holmes needs to get to work adding better talent to this roster. The draft will define Brad’s time here and no picks are bigger than this 2022 1st rd. pick at this point.

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I like Dan but I’m not sold that he’s the answer. My biggest issue is that he wasn’t ready to be a HC. It showed in his decision making and mistakes. We fans have to endure his growing pains. Will he improve in time before the team, staff, fans and FO give up on him? … I hope so…… but honestly I don’t think he can endure another season like this one. Things must be moving forward and showing signs of improvement in 2022. There’s no reason they shouldn’t.

That’s why I feel we need to pair him with an experience OC. Preferably someone with HC experience who can help to mold him into a quality HC.

Me too and here’s why I am.

  1. Goff vs the other NFCN QB’s. If Rogers leaves via FA and MIN fires their HC than it is possible the Lions may have the best QB situation in our division. That alone makes us a contender.

  2. Lions cap situation The Lions have somewhere around 35mil in available cap space for 2022. If we cut Flowers that number jump up closer to 45 mil. I figure the Lions have the money to sign a quality FA or Two and/or possibly a handful of role player types. It will be interesting to see how Holmes and company attack FA and approach the cap this year.

  3. Available resources With the resources we have available via the draft and the cap spending this team should have the largest infusion of talent out of any team in the NFCN. Meanwhile I see GB as a team that will be losing the most talent.

  4. Stability and Growth Both CHI and MIN could have a new coaching staff. That means both teams could be looking at a restructuring year. New coaches always want to bring in their own guys so both of those teams could be seeing some serious turnover. Then if you realize that GB could lose both Rogers and Adams …. Suddenly now the Lions should be the team with the biggest increase in talent while our division foes could all be looking at a decrease in talent.

  5. A last place schedule. We should have a favorable schedule.

  6. A run game. The Lions finally have a run game. This is huge in my opinion. If our run game continues to improve and we can pair it with an average defense. Than I believe that’s enough to propel this team into a divisional championship.

Add all of this up and it’s easy to feel optimistic heading into 2022. I honestly believe if the stars align we could win the division and be one of those teams who go from worst to first.

What needs to happen in my opinion.

  1. The Lions need to have fewer injuries.
  2. We need to improve our receiving corp.
  3. Free agency and the draft should mostly be spent on addressing our defense. If we can get that defense to average then I like our chances. I know that’s saying a lot but it’s possible with the resources available.

Ultimately I want to see the Lions front office be aggressive this offseason and put forth the effort to win the division. I do not want to see another passive offseason.

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I don’t mind this either, but I’d rather have a guy who’s a great offensive mind than someone that just helps Dan be a head coach. We just tried that second approach with A-Lynn and we know how that turned out. Not saying at all that if we hired another A-Lynn type that it would, but we need to be able to score 28 points regularly next year.

There is literally 8 wins staring at us on that schedule. We need 2 more somehow and we’re maybe division champs and definitely in the playoffs.

:pray:

With at least 2 guys that can be starters. Draft or FA.

I say that we spend our FA money on 1 big WR (Michael Gallup type) and a defender (Marcus Williams?).

Use the rest of the money on depth guys, but shoot for the stars in 2022. It is possible.

This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet

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You got me ready to run through a brick wall, Air…which I’m prone to do with very little provocation, and you’ve given me a lot.

All things being equal, I’d prefer our WR acquisitions to be via the draft because as a “run” team, we’ll probably have to pay a premium for elite WR FAs. Attracting defensive FAs should be easier with AG as defensive coordinator.

At this point, I’m truly a spectator. What Holmes and Friends do is way above my pay grade, and while I’d love a splurge, I’m not so sure that will happen. Despite the long contracts Dan and Brad have, can they securely endure another dismal record in 2022? How much attention Brad gives to the really long game of comp picks could be frustrating to an impatient fan like me who wants clear, indisputable progress in 2022.

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For me culture is the environment in which the entirety of the organization works to achieve it’s goals. In this case, winning football games. I think we’ve had some pretty stark contrast examples of cultures over the past several years.

Caldwell built a good culture and the players bought in…I remember them playing very hard under Jim. Our GM however brought in an immature malcontent and passed up on Aaron Donald. So the environment wasn’t always in sync to achieve it’s goals of winning. The GM was fired.

They then hired a new GM, but he never meshed with Caldwell. However the players still played hard for Jim Caldwell. Then the GM fired Caldwell and hired his friend Matt Patricia. Those very same players that played so hard for Jim, were now branded as malcontents and some were even traded for peanuts. Obviously an environment was created that ran counter to the benefit of the organization and it’s goal of winning football games. The GM and coach were fired.

Now comes Holmes, Campbell and Disner under Shelia. A lot of talk of being on the same page and being collaborative, changing the environment to achieve it’s goal of winning football games. We all know that the players have played very hard under Campbell this season, even with all of the losing. That’s great, but they still lost a shit ton of games. I knew this was going to be a losing season but I couldn’t have foreseen the misery of it…lot’s of gut punches and WTF’s. But as of late, I see progress…and I see some really good pieces for this team to build on. But the goal is still to win games.

This offseason is MASSIVE to show that the culture they are building is on the right track. They need to make the right decisions and perform to a level that achieves the organizations goal. Winning Football Games.

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Agreed massive offseason leading into year 2. They got their feet wet in year 1 of the rebuild. This offseason will most likely determine whether they can turn it around or not. I’m not expecting the playoffs next year, but they better win 7 or 8 games to show we are trending in the right direction.

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He’s already been mentored… in New Orleans.
And it paid off in that his own vision for the offense was established enough that he overruled his veteran, former HC, OC mid-season. And that paid off, too, seeing the team’s only wins AFTER he made the move.

As neutral-to-disappointed as I was to see MCDC hired, I’m impressed, even and maybe especially on the offensive side of things.

It’s really interesting to me because I wanted Patricia here due to his ties to Parcels via Belichick. He was “the next Parcels” according to some talking heads. I was NOT making a connection to Parcels with DC, but as we’ve gotten to know him, you see just how much a pupil of his he really is.

Whether we like it or not, Dan Campbell is going to live or die on HIS vision for this team. He is not going cede offensive or defensive philosophies to either coordinator. He is convinced what has to happen on both sides and he’s going to give his coordinators all the flexibility they need to execute his vision. :slight_smile:

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This is a valid point. The offense has only improved since MC/DC took over the offense and play calling. That’s a very good sign in my book. Goff looked lost and defeated before Campbell took over play calling and then all of sudden looked much better. And even Tim Boyle put up 29 points last week.

Many fans are talking about the next offensive co-ordinator hire. Personally I’d promote Ben Johnson to OC, but still have Campbell calling most of the plays. Goff finally has some success, why would we change things again!?

Add a talented WR and some depth at TE behind Hock, and this offense could be pretty good. The o-line is set, RB is set. The running game is a strength.

Special teams have been fairly solid as well.

The defense is where we need a massive influx of talent.

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Right on 57. It is indeed the defense that needs the most help with new bodies.

I agree with Air a lot but we both expect Brad Holmes to be very, very aggressive in 2022.

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Taking S Hamilton at #2, will invalidate my respect for Holmes drafting acumen…Not when, you are guranteed 1 of 2 stud DE’s are available. Pressure begins with the D-Line and proceeds outward, effecting LB and the Secondary. Simpler solution to the Safety problem is to sign FA S Williams, who already has ties to DC & AG. Signing Williams negates the temptation to drafting Hamilton, with the hopes he is the next Sean Taylor or Ed Reed. Casting potential future superlatives at a prospect is a two-way street. If you believe drafting Hamilton would be transformative for the Secondary, go ahead. I reserve the right to believe drafting Hutch(Future JJ Watt?) or Mr. Tibbs, would also be transformative for the Defensive Line, LB, & Secondary.

Lions Fans will likely have their answer before the Draft to the Hamilton at #2 question, if Holmes signs Williams in FA. IF not, the only way drafting Hamilton would make any sense would be with a trade down scenario, which is a Big IF, another team & Holmes can come to agreement on compensation. Det Fans want Hutch. That chorus of drafting the Local Boy will only ring louder, the closer the Draft comes. Am assuming Hutch & Mr. Tibbs cancel each other out at the Combine. Each has different strengths over the other. Enthusiasm means something, and Hutch has it in spades. Moreover, he want to be a Team Leader and wants to play for Detroit.

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Thanks for the reply sin.

This thread is about what it takes for the Lions to turn the corner. We have all watched the Lions make mistake after mistake year in and year out.

In terms of drafting safety Hamilton early I don’t love that but I also don’t believe in positional value when it comes to the draft. I want the meanest MFers I can get and the guys most likely to impact plays period. Look no further than the 2014 NFL draft and the Rans taking OT Greg Robinson at #2 OA. Hell, look at Clowney ay #1 OA. At the time many on this board argued correctly that Clowney was unlikely to live up to expectations. There were red flags. Khalil Mack went #5 OA and I think you can make a great argument he was the best player in that draft. Anthony Barr went #9 in that draft and I think you can say that he is the second best defensive player in that draft and maybe 2nd best OA player but he is a LBer. I think an argument can be made that LBer CJ Mosely (who went #17 OA) was the biggest steal that draft. Point is if you want football players you might have to make unconventional decisions at times.

Look, Hutch and Thibs have red flags on their resumes. I like them both, I would be VERY happy these guys are Lions but I have legit concerns. I don’t have concerns with Hamilton at all except he plays a position many think isn’t as important. That viewpoint may be wrong. If Holmes isn’t convinced Thibs or Hutch are blue chip guys that demand a team scheme for them he has to look t Hamilton.

But past that…I believe sacks are the most overrated stat in sports. Pressure matters more. And Holmes might be 100% smarter than many here if he gets Flowers to slash his salary, if Holmes re-signs Charles Harris (he has 7.5 sacks right now) and he Holmes drafts Hamilton and drafts a LBer in rd. 1 to pair with Derrick Barnes.

I love me some Hutch, I see him as a Ryan Kerrigan guy but I don’t see him as a Freeney/Suggs/Donald level change this defense talent. I see a hell of a player but I don’t see a game-wrecking DE. Same with Thibs. I like them, I get positional value and I am fine iof Holmes makes this move but damn does Hamilton look like a gamechanger, ESP. if paired with a killer safety like Marcus Williams.

By the way…you play TWO safeties so signing Marcus says nothing about our gaping hole at strong safety. In fact, we really don’t even have a strong safety on this roster.

This will be a HUGE decision for Holmes. Conventional wisdom says take the pass rusher. I am saying conventional wisdom may be wrong there. Holmes has a tough call on his hands. This is a terrible draft to be picking early.

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For me…the “Corner turn” was when Sheila Ford Hamp took over as principal owner and chairwoman, on June 23rd, 2020.

It took this woman only 159 days to fire Quintricia (and it was cut-throat following a Thanksgiving loss). She wasn’t wasting time…and was ready to put forth her vision.

Culture and Coaching (player development) are what the Lions teams have been missing for decades. A leader that motivates, and coaches that FLIPPIN’ COACH and development the talent we’ve acquired. We have the leaders in place to development whatever player we draft. I really don’t care who we draft (I have favorites), but the right coaches are in place and the culture is being crafted to support any player that is drafted here.

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Great post.

I think it would be really hard for Holmes to pull the trigger on Hamilton when some of his best Rams picks were safeties in the 5th and 6th round. For that same reason, I expect Tracy Walker to get better offers from another team and to, well, walk…

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That’s just the way the draft works though, you’re gonna hit some and you’re gonna miss some. For every high value positional player you list who busted, I can name one of low value who busted. Aaron Curry. Kellen Winslow. Ernie Sims. Chris Claiborne. Roy Williams (the safety). Trent Richardson. Quentin Coryatt. LaVar Arrington. Was Jamal Adams worth such a high pick? Fournette? Saquon?

The reason safety is lower value has nothing to do with the actual impact of the position and everything to do with the fact that you can generally find those mean MFers in the mid to late rounds. Winfield, Byard, Jessie Bates, Jordan Fuller, Justin Simmons, John Johnson, Marcus Williams, Honey Badger, Maye, Diggs, Adrian Amos, etc… all of them were drafted day 2 or later. It’s like RB and OG that way. That’s why positional value matters, what kind of resources are you throwing at the position?

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