"Free agents cost too much this year"--won't it be much worse next year?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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So here is what I am seeing on the board: a sizeable collection of fans arguing that it is OK Holmes is bringing back almost the same roster from a 3-win team because the contracts were “too high,” and that they should wait until next year. I understand why people feel that way, and I am not arguing the validity of that feeling.

That said, here are my questions: Do you really expect deals to be similar/better next offseason when the salary cap is supposed to increase dramatically? Aren’t agents/players just going to scale their demands higher based on the cap increase? Aren’t the free agent WR deals next year going to make this year’s look way better?

If you are one of those people described in the opening paragraph, what is your reasonable expectation for Holmes–is he supposed to build entirely through the draft? In today’s NFL, can a GM even get enough time to go that route?

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Holmes and Campbell came into this thing with two major strikes against them: a talent base that had been catered to an antiquated system, and awful contracts. Trying to do a rush job back from that would only result in a worse situation, we were really smart to hire these guys and give them time. It was absolutely necessary.

Contracts will be more expensive next year, but our talent base will be different too as will our cap situation.

There will come a time when we blow it out on FA contracts, but I agree with our FO that this was not the year. If they could have found a good deal for Williams or Robinson I think they would have taken it, but they wouldn’t mortgage the future. And kudos to them.

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You can’t build soley through the draft. It’s just not possible.

Most teams turnover about 30% of their roster each year. This is done to get both younger and cheaper. It also helps with cap management.

Staying stagnant will often put you behind the other teams in your division. So teams are always looking to improve. So they turnover the bottom of their roster hoping to find a real gem. Like we did with Harris last year.

With that said there’s a large amount of fans who hate to spend money. They want to save it, horde it for the future when the team is ready for a SB push. They do the same thing with draft picks.

The irony is that we won’t ever be ready unless we spend.

I’m a firm believer in resigning your own. Especially when that player is adequate or above average.

It’s impossible to build anything when we’re constantly tearing down and starting over. So I’m happy were resigning players and not shipping out talent. I just wish we were a tad more aggressive in FA to acquire more outside talent.

We’ve signed just one fresh new face… Chark.

I think we have to have some roster turnover. That turnover should be the bottom of the roster. But I also think you have to bring back the average and above average talent.

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A recent interview with the OTC guys on Sirius had them saying the cap will approach 250m in 2024.

So, with that said, I think they are eliminating a lot of the dead numbers now finish this off season including the draft and go into next off season willing to spend more and on longer term deals.

This due to knowing what last years draft is showing what Goff is/isn’t showing and go after higher quality players then. Not too mention adding three players from the top 34 this year.

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You could be right. That might be what they are doing but a lot of fans and media were saying the same thing last year too. So fans were expecting this year to be different.

Holmes even said he would be more aggressive this year too. So who really knows what these guys are thinking.

Personally I think their trying to go against the grain with their own philosophy on how to build a roster. They have time to execute such a plan. Most GM’s aren’t given much time to turn things around. Sheila like her father appears to be patient. So this allows Holmes and Dan to take a more laid back approach.

I think that’s what we’re seeing.

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Just my opinion but until roster is ready for few big signings this is best way.
Last season many complain but they always fail to tell fans how much money had to be paid as dead money because of bad deals or bad players. $67,101,393 was the Dead Money for season 2021 very hard to pay when you have to release so many over paid players.

2022 will be better an they are still being careful an filling with players they know who earned another contract for 2022 an they gave few more two year deals.

They will build though draft an build the roster.

Just simple example we found a top end WR last year who will be cheap for few more years. We also found a couple FA that are ok WR’s for this season an we spent more for one to show us if a longer one is worth it.

To see how are WR corp does in 2022 we will have to look at end of season . But are total cap hit for the top 6 right now is not close to what other teams are or will pay.

We will add another cheap one from draft at least one.
If we hit on another WR in this draft like we did with Brown you will have Brown an this season WR along with Reynolds an Cephius under contract for 2024 an you can add another.

The example shows that by drafting you can have a lot of quality players an they will be cheap an then you cycle an keep the best with bigger contracts

Just a example this plan will work if they stick to it an we pay more attention to draft than FA
Lions WR corp as of now will not cost more than 12 million this coming season against cap.
I will not show other teams but Kirk will count 7.5 million this season an will increase a lot after almost 3 quarters of the whole Lion WR corp.
Reason some teams can spend is rookie QB contracts but in few years some will come due. Lions can do same with WR an other positions keep cost down an in another years will be able to add the splash deal.

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I think they are staying true to what they said from day one. The main way to build up a franchise is through the draft, they are going into their second draft in a month. 5 players in top 100 plus last years picks to add another yr of experience.

Then add in the players they are keeping that they inherited: the 4OL players, the S, CB, the TE, Swift, Okwara plus Goff and Jwilliams and of course Fox. That is 12 starters for the most part.

Plug in the 12 players mentioned above plus Sewell, two dline players drafted in 2021 and you have 15 starters or rotation players. Then lets say 3 starters from this draft and a rotation player now you are up to 18 or 19.

So it’s why I think next years offseason is the key/pivot year they will have better understanding again of their drafted players plus a third draft approaching and better cap situation with a big growth in next year’s cap and in 2024’s cap.

They stayed true to building foundation thru the draft plus the players they kept when they arrived and in 2023 offseason is the year to add some key valuable high end FA’s.

So I don’t think it’s another Quinn going with their own philosophy ie smartest guy in the room but more staying with a philosophy that has worked with multiple franchises and both Holmes and Campbell have seen it work up close.

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Different way to build a contender for sure, Rams bought one with 20 percent of the roster taking up 80 percent of their cap. For years Green Bay hardly ever went into FA, Pats trade high picks for multiple lower picks and draft in mass. Denver and Tampa built a team then brought in a hired gun at QB. Seahawks went the route of going for a rookie QB on a rookie contract and using that extra money to fill in needs with free agents, Lots of ways to do it, I think its more on having a sharp front office that has it together, actually having a plan and sticking to it. For years it seems the Lions plan was just closing their eyes and throwing darts at a board hoping something would stick.

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They cost to much every year. If your draft picks from 4-5 years ago aren’t producing or are gone, that’s the price to try and compete.

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I think we will see a handful or two of players signed before the end of August
Not the top end talent, and that’s okay
They’re keeping options open
They will fill needs still
Modest upgrades here and there

But the core will come from the draft
I think they got an extra year because the roster was such a mess
Last year was year zero
This is year one

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I agree.

Bad weather
Bad income tax
Bad media market
Bad franchise historically.

“Honey- LA, Miami, San Diego, Tampa, Jax, Dallas called… oh yeah Detroit too….”

A guy making 10M a year keeps 600k a year more simply playing in Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami etc.

Let’s just say he buys a 5M house with a 4M mortgage…… total mortgage with taxes and hurricane insurance is about 440K…. He can by a new Range Rover, cover all housing expenses every year in Miami - JUST ON THE TAX SAVINGS!!!

  • we have to build through the draft. Through culture.

Our state is awesome, but more of an acquired taste.

We didn’t just bring back the guys from the 3-13-1 team from last year…. We also paid a shit ton of money to Hock, Swift, Ragnow. Decker, Okwara, Okudah, Etc that all missed a fair amount of time.

Additions to our week 17 and 18 depth chart

J Reynolds
Hock
Goff- 1 game
AO
Ragnow
Okudah
Jacobs
Romeo
Chark

4 rookie starts.

Any other free agents.

We could have 10-12 new and far better starters than weeks 16-18 last year.

We won 3 of last 6 with a friggin mash unit.

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Nope. Not my concern and has nothing to do w/my reasoning

Most likely, yup - Of little concern…inflation will always be a thing. I recommend buying real estate and precious metals for diversity, but also…stocks, crypto, etc. :wink:

Quite possibly

In Detroit you can get that much time, because that’s what’s going on.
We’re not a 3 win team, BTW. All of the wins came late, because they got better.
Add Ragnow, T-Deck, Okudah, Okwara, AO, JJ, and Iffy to that team that was better in the 2nd half…that team that played a murdurous schedule in the first half, that team that grew a ton, bought into a culture, had to learn a new system on both sides of the ball, etc.

That’s not a 3 win team…Especially when you add the injured dudes back in. Our OL is gonna eat ppl’s lunch. Our WRs are better, in adding Chark and Cephus into the mix.

Most of our draft will be Defensive, with likely a stud WR, if not WR help late.

We will replace AT LEAST 8 players from last year, if not 11…counting draft, FA, and dudes coming off of IR.

This team is going to have HALF new starters. HALF!

Not a 3 win team. Not close.

Still doing some cap healing…WHILE whipping some ass :wink:

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That’s the thing, you can’t build through free agency, nobody can…

The Chargers are the dark horse this year. The Mack trade wasn’t to expensive and created the justification for the Jackson signing.

They have 5 studs on D… they have 3-4 studs on O and a stud young QB….this is their 2-3 year window and they went for it.

They also have LA as their home too…

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So it’s simply about money and being a contender isn’t part of the equation. Yep, brilliant.

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Are you referring to me?

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I suppose something can be said about being fiscally responsible and building through the draft. It’s something that Detroit has has never tried before, at least not from Millen through current.

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Well…. We aren’t a contender, nor a logical free agent destination.

So ya, I’d say build through the draft vs dramatically overpay?

The Packers have lost 2 of their best OL, the games best WR, MVS, and their best pass rusher the past 2 off seasons. They’ve added nobody.

The Pack broke the bank for Erin, and Jaire is in negotiations for north of 21M per….

So they draft Olave and B Mafe in round 1 and OT and Pickens in 2….

Not a bad draft…. It’s a lot to ask that Pickens and Olave account for 1900 yards and 18 TDs…. That’s what they are replacing. Same with an above average T and a guy with double digit sack potential.

Pack- aging Rodgers, aging A Jones, aging Baktiari, aging P Smith, all monster contracts! J Alexander signing record CB contract….

They better draft well- they have 6 good players under 30

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