I am not sure why they are playing a double header this week and why they chose to play both games at the same time. Anyone “in the know” on this? Either way, it is what it is.
85%+ of the bets are on the Packers to beat the Giants. The money being placed is equal to the number of bets, which says there are no “sharps” who are placing money on the Giants. IMO the Giants have a punchers chance, coming off of a bye week. “Vegas” wasn’t able to achieve the golden 50/50 split on this game, so they will take some losses if the Packers win…cover the 6 point spread…and the game scores over 37 points. Just looking at it from a money perspective, I think something magical will happen to keep the score low and/or help the Giants cover the spread.
95% of the bets are on the Dolphins to beat the Titans. Its an even more extreme version of the Packers vs Giants game. This game also mimics the money vs number of bets ratio. They are essentially the same, which says there are no insiders dropping large bets going against the public opinion of who is going to win. A huge spread of 14 points still didn’t entice bettors to put their money on the Titans. A Miami win isn’t the end of the world for “Vegas” because the moneyline was so extreme (-900). Following the money, Miami can win but “Vegas” will need to recover some of its losses by having the Titans cover and/or hitting the under at 45 points.
Great write-up. I wouldnt mind seeing that for more games.
Just one thing: If 85% of the bets are on the Packers, but the money is even, that leads me to believe “sharps” that bet larger amounts are on the Giants, no?
The Giants defense is not bad, and their pass rush has talent. It wont be easy for GB.
I expect Vrabel to have a good gameplan. The Titans have tough guys. I personally would take both underdogs tonight.
I apologize if I misworded it. What I meant was the 85% of total bets is equal to the 85% of money placed. You are absolutely correct that if 85% of the bets were on the Packers but 50% of the money was on the Giants…its a huge red flag. Generally speaking it means “somebody knows something.” That’s what happened when the Broncos beat the Bills a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football. The betting public was with the Bills but the money per bet sided with the Broncos. The Broncos won.
