Lets say the Lions lose to the Vikings this weekend, which to me is totally up in the air, well, because winning would be a very SOL thing to do. But lets just say we lose. Then, there are four games that have draft order implications.
First, Houston (currently the third pick – which goes to Miami) is at home in an afternoon game against Tennessee. The Texans have lost four in a row, since beating us on Thanksgiving – two close losses to the Colts, sandwiched around a Bears blow out, and then last weeks implosion against the Bengals. The Titans are not a sure thing for the playoffs, but a win gives them the division. The Titans are favored by 8 and have a win probability of 78%. I give the Texans a mild chance for an upset, they are better than 4-12, but you have to go with the Titans, meaning Miami in all likelihood will pick third.
Next, the fourth pick Falcons are on the road against the Bucs. The Falcons really know how to lose. Since pounding the Raiders, they have also lost four in a row – none by more than four points. They played the Chiefs really close last week, and somehow lost to the Bucs two weeks ago after leading by 17 in the third quarter. The Bucs are playing for the five seed and an easy first round game against the NFC East “winner”. The Bucs have a 71 percent chance of winning and are favored by 6.5 points. The Falcons are way better than their record, and the loss to the Bucs may motivate them. I give them a pretty good chance to upset the Bucs, if the Bucs have the ball at the end of the game needing a score, well, they will score against the Falcons defense which is on a par with our defense. The Falcons will probably pick 4th, but have a somewhat decent chance at an upset, given how close they played teams and how hard it is to beat a team twice in three weeks.
Then we have the Bengals, who are rocketing down the charts with two straight wins against the Steelers and Texans. They are going to try to make it three against the mighty Ravens, who are the hottest team in the league right now. No way is it happening. The Ravens need to win to get in, and they are primed to do that. They’re favored by 12, and have an 87% chance of winning. They have won somethhing like 70 straight games when favored by double digits. Bengals are probably picking 5th, or 4th if the Falcons come though. There goes Micah Parsons. We are always one pick late.
Finally, the Eagles, who are finally out of it. The Football team travels up route 95 into the Eagles nest. The Eagles have had the hardest schedule lately, beating the Saints two weeks ago, but losing to the Seahawks, Cards, Pack and the suddenly hot Cowboys. The football team had looked good with three straight wins including the Steelers, but are a mess at QB, though Alex Smith may play which will give them a chance. The Eagles are 1.5 point favorites, with a 53% chance of winning. The Redskins have a 50% chance of winning. Yes, you read that right. Don’t ask. Goooo Iggles!
If all goes according to the chalk, we pick 6th. Thats the most likley scenario. Second most likley scenario is that we pick 7th. (Third most likley may be 13th, but lets not go there). There’s an outside chance we get to fifth, and it would really be our day if we make it to 4th. Like this:
Most likley: 1) Jax 2) NYJ 3) Miami 4) Atlanta 5) Cincy (6) Lions
Second most likley: 1) Jax 2) NYJ 3) Miami 4) Atlanta 5) Cincy (6) Eagles 7) Lions
Third most likley: we win and are out of the top 10.
Next most likley: 1) Jax 2) NYJ 3) Miami 4) Cincy 5)Lions
Its our day: 1) Jax 2)NYJ 3)Cincy 4)Lions
So even if its our day: We prolly get Lawrence, Sewell snd Parsons picked before us.
Go Eagles! Go Falcons! Go Texans! Go Bengals! Go Vikings!