Hock pick #55 for #64 & #102 (Top pick of round 3 and round 4)
Chicago picks #54… They could want to pick back to back (how we did with Barnes and St Brown 2021)
Repeat of 2022 Draft, how DET & GB traded with Minny…we’re back at it again.
Chicago needs to add a lot of talent, but they also have the cap space to sign a bunch of mid-tier guys. Getting 2 Top 50 guys back to back in round 2 makes sense for them.
Trade value says we would have to kick in a 5th or 6th to make it happen.
So if I’m reading you right, you’re saying trade
48 and 55 (222 on Rich Hill)
for
Chicago’s 54, 64, and 102 (218 on Rich Hill).
I wouldn’t mind that if there’s no one we’re really in love with at 48. I bet there will be, though.
Brad has shown he’s more likely to trade up rather than down. I think he wanted Minnesota’s 55 pick so we could package that or our other second rounder to move up in the first. But who knows?
Sorry man I edited it to clarify
Ahh, gotcha, so that would be us getting a value of 114 and giving up 101, so yes we would have to give them our 5th as well.
I assume they will sign a bunch of mid-tier free agents with all that $ they got to spend.
Landing 2 Top 50 guys back to back would be ideal for them I hope.
I like the depth in these COVID drafts…
DT, S, LB, RB,G, NB, WR all look good in that round 3-4 range.
I can’t remember which poster said it, but he deems the 4th round in today’s NFL to be the 5th round. The math doesn’t work out perfectly but its a damn good point. We are quickly starting to approach 45 picks being made in the 3rd round. So its time to make a “value” adjustment to rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 to reflect how much lower you are picking than years ago. The cleanest way to do that is to consider 4th round picks as 5th round picks, 5th round picks as 6th round picks and so on. And if you want to dive deeper the top of the 4th is more like the middle of the 4th and the top of the 5th is at the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th.
To answer the question I wouldn’t make that deal. If anything I would use a lower pick to move up from pick #55 and grab a guy.
Yeah, its like all thr competitive balance picks in baseball (LOL, competitive balance when the Mets throw down $310M and Oakland $49M)…
Lots of buffer until u get to your pick.
I think though that if they dont absolutely love a guy at that spot, they will try to Max Beans that pick sure.
Good post.
I definitely can see using the pick to move up…especially to late 1.
I don’t see much of a difference from 55-100. Especially in last draft and I expect the same again. The positions we are likely to be targeting there’s value later. That’s all I’m getting at.
I should add that part of my hesitation on moving down for a later pick is the fact that we already have multiple picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Then you have to couple that with my personal philosophy that a team can only support so many rookies at one time while advancing the non-rookies on the team. So as a team establishes itself and tries to grow I feel it needs to lean towards quality over quantity. Because the team needs to decide between supporting rookies and advancing everyone else.
All fair points…
but when you’ve been hitting like Holmes been hitting.
Let the man shoot as much as he can
Mcneil 3, Kerby 3, St Brown 4, Barnes 4, Rodrigo 6, Houston 6, I mean cmon man feed holmes
If my view of it is correct (and I am not saying that it is), noone can keep hitting the way Holmes is hitting. Because the draft is about more than just picking good players. The same players who succeeded on one team would fail on another, and vice versa. Right now as the staff is building itself and its culture, everyone is learning from the beginning and slowly moving foward. It is a rookie friendly environment. But as time progresses every team is faced with the reality that they need to advance or die. The book is out and teams start learning how to gameplan for what you are doing. So what works today will not work tomorrow.
That is the make or break moment for a team. You can keep trying to do things the same way and “out execute” the opponent or you can evolve and advance. Your time can be spent on teaching Aidan exactly how defenses are playing him and some inside tricks to beat them, or they can be spent on a rookie edge starting from scratch. You can spend your time on Amon-Ra and Goff reading that a corner’s back foot is slightly out of place and making a subtle route adjustment…or spend your time on rookies learning basic route running.
To be fair, in my assessed trade scenario we still have the same amount of picks.
Dropping from 55 to 60s and getting a pick to start Day 3
That’s the difference between getting that RB or NB or OL depth guy against a guy on the PS.
That Hock pick:
We are all looking at S,LB, DT etc in that range.
The quality of those positions is deep there I don’t think we miss a best if it’s late 2 or round 3
It would be good to see that original post. There are 38 picks in the third round this year, and only 34 in the fourth round. The values are already baked into the Rich Hill chart. For example, the value of the last “regular” pick in the third round is 40 points. Then there are six more picks, with values decreasing from 40 to 35, so that Chicago’s pick at the top of the fourth is worth only 34 points. So the fact that there are more picks in the third is accounted for already. If you further devalued a 4th rounder to a 5th rounder, you would be placing a value of 17 on that pick rather than 34, but I don’t really understand why you would want to de-value it further.
I am with you here…and I pointed out that Holmes has been shown more inclined to trade up (Jamo, Barnes, and some ‘almosts’ that thankfully didn’t happen (Sewell, LeviO)) rather thn trade down. I would not be surprised to see three picks in the first this year, or possibly trading for a first in 2024.
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