The pass rush has been pretty non existent in recent weeks… So after play action the qb has all day to throw.
This game might break a 100 points.
A DVOA score does not depend on points given up. It scores every play. And accounts for the situation. For example, 3rd and 5 give up 6 yards is very bad…3rd and 10 give up 6 yards is very good…another example give up a TD when you’re ahead by 3 is very bad…give up a TD when you’re ahead by 17 is no big deal). He’s not cooking the data, DVOA has been validated repeatedly as a better metric than points given up and/or yards given up.
In fact, the DVOA metric supports your original point. Here’s Minnesota’s and Detroit’s DVOA (which also weights recent performance more heavily than earlier performance):
Minnesota: Defensive DVOA: 3rd
Detroit: Defensive DVOA: 7th
Not too far apart.
Minnesota: Offensive DVOA: 14th
Detroit: Offensive DVOA: 3rd
A much bigger gap.
@GreggyJ s point is that we’ve regressed recently. But that’s pretty well known. Its not like we’ve become a bad defense, especially given, as you point out, the tough offenses we’ve gone up against lately.
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That’s the point @GreggyJ is making though, we have become a bad defense the past month. Losing Hutch sucked… But losing Anzalone, Davis and Alim. Our best corner, linebacker and best d-linemen is nearly impossible to overcome.
Gotta win shootouts. And hope Branch or Kerby can make some game changing plays.
The good news is we can score 40 on anybody! 
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The best way to limit Minny points this game is TOP
Efficient offensive positions and limit Minny possessions
Keeps the score down and defense won’t get tired
I know it sounds obvious but this is the key to this game
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Yep–it’s that the defense has regressed recently. It’s an entirely different defense since the last time they played the Vikings, and it has shown absolutely no signs of getting better. That’s what worries me.
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This is why i call this a historic year. Any other year the Lions would have more losses, but they don’t. It is why i laugh at the doom and gloomers that make their comments and yet the Lions keep moving forward and winning.
It doesn’t have to be understood how this is happening, just accept that it is happening. Until the results change, i see no reason to believe that the results will change
On a positive note 1 of those 4 will be back soon. Another 1 or 2 may return in the playoffs. So this could be a mute conversation by time it matters most, NOLA BABY!!! 
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I don’t know if I’d call it validated.
Theres reasons why coaches say they hate DVOA and call it a joke. Go ask Lions Dave Fipp what he thinks about DVOA. He puts it in the same class as PFF and calls it meaningless.
My point is based on points earned and points allowed. A metric we can all easily see. The Lions are not as bad as people make them out to be when you really look at the numbers.
See my earlier posts.
Very easy to understand, horribly difficult to execute:
Win the TO battle, limit the splash plays/short scoring drives.
That’s how you win at its base.
We gotta have some surprises for the Vikes this week… Exotic blitzes, things they haven’t seen. Less cover 1. Hopefully AG is gonna have some moves up his sleeve.
I was watching some of the first game last night… Alim was getting great pressure, drew 2 holding calls, Rodrigo making plays, Anzalone and Davis were solid. Was exciting and depressing at the same time. Haha
Can’t recall which website i saw this, but there was an interesting comment.
The home field advantage will be a huge factor against the minny defense. They try numerous things on defense and in their building its hard to make adjustments.
Goff will be able to make those calls at home.
Minny defensive stats according to the commentator are much better at home. The 12th man can be a difference.
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I’m not much of a gambler but if I was I’d be hammering the under. WAY too much consensus on the over.
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Even accounting for recent struggles, and even weighing those recent struggles more than our past early success (which is inherent in the DVOA stats), the DVOA rank suggest that we are the seventh best defense in the league. I get it, perhaps you think we should ignore everything before four weeks ago, but we still have Kerby, BB, Terrion, JC, ZDar, etc, and most importantly the coaching infrastructure and schemes. I don’t think you can ignore that, but sure you can weigh it lower, which is exactly what DVOA does.
Put our 7th best defense against Minnesota’s 14th best offense (rather than Buffalo’s second best DVOA offense, GreenBay’s fourth best DVOA offense, and/or SF’s 9th best DVOA offense) would suggest to me that it won’t be all doom and gloom.
I think there is reason to believe that JRM’s play picks up a bit in his second week back. That would be huge.
No he doesn’t. I listened to it awhile ago. You’re right at first he suggested that both were very flawed. But later he backtracked on DVOA. At least a little. I think he was also being a little over-reactionary, which he can do, as well. That said, no metric is a panacea, but DVOA predicts wins better than points or yards.
Which is entirely supported by DVOA. I agree with your earlier posts.
Funny how vegas always wins… You’re probably right. Then again the under is like 60 points. Lol so 31- 28 goes under
Right. I understand why consensus is what it is. It’s just that I’m very weary of that degree of consensus.
Which makes me feel good about the game since every pundit is on the Vikes.
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The Lions are also 4-1 in those “bad defense” games and their other loss was to Tampa where their defense actually played its 4th best game (according to this chart).
Spot on Curious… I know we butt heads over dumb shit sometimes. But love ya brother!
I find it odd that more defenses haven’t mimicked TB’s approach. I assume it’s bc they can’t hold up against the run playing like that the way that TB can.