Interesting deep dive stat about RB efficiency—only one worse than Jamaal in 2022 is a surprise

I had him on one of my fantasy teams, drafted in the 2nd, and them JAX started him out as the number 2 back. I was pissed.

A broken clock is right twice per day.

They brought in David Montgomery to fix that. Notice that he gets less yards than expected. So our staff was wrong on the solution. Once they saw this metric they had to quickly take a RB in the 1st round because they know they messed up. :rofl:

Well, not quite but plenty of short ones…

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Finally found this old post, not sure if it’s from Detroit papers or the Athletic:

Posted elsewhere but it fits here as well.
One thing Swift and JW did last season was leave yards on the field, obviously team is expecting Gibbs to change that.

So let’s talk about Jahmyr Gibbs first, because a few things need to be pointed out. The Lions finished last season tied with Philadelphia for the sixth-best Adjusted Line Yard number in the league. That means Detroit’s offensive line was tied with Philly’s as the sixth-best at creating space for its running backs. The offenses are different, of course, but when it comes to second-level yards, Philly goes up to No. 2 and Detroit dips to No. 15. There are other metrics that show the same thing. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams left yards on the table last year.

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@frm710

That’s not the info that goes into this particular metric. We are on the same page as far as the concept. We are also on the same page as far as Jamaal leaving yards on the field. But THIS particular analytic is not what it is supposed to be. That is all. Its okay for “analytics” do be wrong sometimes.

Here is part of the issue with the metric, and why it matters that it wasn’t put together by people who know American football (they are from a different country and were only doing it as a thought exercise). Everything is based on the point of the handoff. EVERYTHING! They sprinkle on more data points from there, but the point of the handoff is the key piece of the puzzle. That’s where they analyze the exact positioning of the defenders and the speed of the back and the defenders at that exact moment in time. So you can already see a flaw in that some run schemes will naturally grade higher than others, as some are designed for traps and movement of defenders where others play in phone booth.










Agree with you, I was thinking more overall on the “leaving yards on the table” for last year than this specific analytic being discussed in the thread.

I posted just for why I think they thought this overall than anything else and why I don’t think they drafted Gibbs after DM(mistake). I think they are trying to recreate the JW/DS model with better, upgrade, performers.

Reminds me of the Barry vs Emmit. How many yards would of Barry had if he had Emmit’s OL.

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We know we left yards on the field. And we know this metric is clearly flawed. Both are true at the same time.

From the Gibbs breakdown on theAthletic which was posted earlier this am.

Baumgardner : In 915 carries as a pro, Williams has forced 109 missed tackles. Montgomery, also with 915 carries but in two fewer seasons, has forced 185. During Swift’s final year at Georgia in 2019, playing behind the Power 5’s best offensive line, he forced a missed tackle about every five attempts. Gibbs, playing behind a pretty ho-hum Alabama line last year, made a defender miss about every four attempts.

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Still reading the article found this:

I know people don’t recall Adrian Peterson’s season in Detroit fondly, but I do — because we got to listen to him talk ball all year. One thing that always struck me about him was how, even at age 35, he was still looking to score a damn touchdown on every play. He rarely used “there wasn’t enough room” as an excuse. It was on him, he thought, to find that room. Gibbs runs that way, too — he’s more of a survivor as a runner than Swift was coming out of college.

Am I being too harsh on Swift?

Welcome brother!

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The preverbal getting the what right but the how wrong! :crazy_face:

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Tidbit from athletic article on 10 players to watch in OTA’s this am when discussing the new RB tandem in Detroit to last season.

From Weeks 9-18, the Lions ranked 21st in rushing EPA (-0.06), per TruMedia. During that span, 20.5 percent of the team’s rushes went for negative yards or no gain — the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. The Lions averaged 1.46 yards before contact (18th during that span) and 2.66 yards after contact (19th).

Some of that could be attributed to injuries along the offensive line and the absence of D’Andre Swift at times. Teams also loaded the box more

the first thing opponents are going to try to do is try to stop Gibbs by double-teaming him , and I think that will free up Montgomery a bit more, because I do not see them double-teaming both…the real excitement will be when we get JW back…because your going to fight like HELL to try and stop them all, in addition…I liked what Brock Wright brought as a TE last season…so now try and stop Wright AND LaPorta to /good luck.

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