Gibbs is a phenomenonal receiver, he made crazy catches at the college level. He’s only shown a glimpse of what he’s capable of… He could be CMC as soon as this season.
If you are saying that Gibbs talent profile will be similar to CMC’s as soon as this year, then I am inclined to agree with you.
I would disagree if you are saying that his volume is going to be anywhere near CMC’s I would have to disagree. I do not see Mongomery’s role changing, and I see the tandem as completely complimentary to each other.
No, he won’t get the workload that McCaffery does… But I think he’ll have an increased workload this season. He had 182 rushes and 71 targets last year… I’d bet he gets ~250 rushes and 90 targets… That’s about 4 more rushes and 1 more target per game.
So I had a nerd moment and IF history is a predictor of the future, your rushing numbers are not too far off.
Data Points:
Last year’s Rushing Attempts: 500
Last year weeks 14-17 (5 games:
Montgomery: 48% of Attempts
Gibbs: 46% of Attempts
Other: 4%
I chose the last 5 games because I think Gibbs had established himself at that time and both were healthy if I remember right. So this is the long winded way of saying that Gibbs would have an estimated 229 carries if usage percentage stays the same and we have a consistent number of rushing plays for the year.
One can argue that Gibbs will take a greater role still and push that number up. It also assumes that we will have roughly 1,100 plays and 500 of them will be running plays.
My gut tells me our competition will be better this year and our number of snaps will decline. Let’s say to 1065 (vs 1137 Last year). Gamescript will also come into play and I believe we will be passing a little more than we did last year. So I am going to guess 425 (40% vs last year’s 44%). If they do a closer 50/50 that puts Gibbs at 210 carries (up from 182). Slightly up. However, I will tell you I think his receiving increases enough to make up the difference.
Rookie production is never the measuring stick to use with future potential and performance. So many guys have horrible rookie years and then rock it out down the road. Many other guys kill it their first year and then go downhill from there. This is a silly article.
From what I’ve seen so far he’s a better runner than Swift but Swift is the better receiver. I firmly believe Gibbs can be a bigger weapon in the receiving game than he has been. Looking forward to seeing it.