This clears it up some if what Florio says is true… he posted this at 4:17 PM today after we had both responded and claims OverTheCap is wrong .
The difference will be that the Lions, right now, are in position to take what may be a generational QB. A QB that prompted a slogan that teams should tank to draft him.
When they have the debate in later seasons, they won’t be drafting here, and the debate will be about Jordan Loves and Shea Pattersons and Brian Lewerkes.
Florio explains what I’ve been talking about. Hopefully, this clears it up as my numbers mirror what he is saying.
Also, Overthecap has everything reported correctly, it’s just Florio and everyone else that looked at the numbers interpreted incorrectly. Jason’s twitter account from overthecap.com was the first person that I know of to say the dead cap of $32M was reported incorrectly and it would actually be $24.8M of dead cap space.
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Yep. I shared that post here the other day.
I get that…but where is a generational QB?
Burrow: wasn’t great until after an ideal scheme change, a solid running game, above average o-line protection, a highly productive WR group , and a nice defense.
Tua: JUST got a clear bill of health for a dislocated hip and a high-ankle sprain , the big question is will he stay healthy.
Herbert: needs work on his vision, footwork , mechanics, and going through his progressions… AKA, work in progress.
Your numbers do mirror what he is saying …But I’m not reading what is on overthecap incorrectly…
The numbers Jason has posted reflect exactly what I’m saying and have been saying …Florio is saying his source is saying something totally different then what is currently on the site seen here at
https://overthecap.com/player/matt-stafford/1060/ …
Jason says in his notes it was converted into signing bonus , the ($7.2 Million of Stafford’s 2020 salary and the $6 Million dollar roster bonus $13.2 Million total ) the graph/breakdown as well was done to reflect just that and still says he has a dead cap value of $32 Million if traded …
those graphs/breakdowns are always done to what is current and if it was a situation of the Lions exercising something later, at another time, it would not be reflected in the graph/breakdown already …and it still makes no sense …
Stafford’s $6 Million dollar roster bonus that was due this year on 3/22/20 as I stated already earlier & was already fully guaranteed . This was prior to the new reported restructure that took place in late December of 2019, as it had already became fully guaranteed on 3/17/2019 because Stafford was on the roster . So just like the roster bonus of 2019 that was $5.5 Million and fully guaranteed on 3/16/18 and paid to Stafford on 3/17/19 it was fully accelerated into the 2019 cap just the way his 2020 would be if paid on 3/22/20 …but we know that is not the case because $1.2 Million of it was already eaten up in 2019 …you cant eat $1.2 Million dollars of the $6 Million dollar roster bonus in 2019 unless the restructure of the roster bonus has already happened and it was already converted into signing bonus …hence no $6 Million dollar bonus exists for 2020 any longer because $1.2 of it hit our cap in 2019 as you said so yourself when you broke it down
Sporttrac is reporting exactly what I’m saying, that no $6 Million dollar bonus is still in play which confirms what I have been saying here that his dead cap # for 2020 is $32 Million today as seen here
Matthew Stafford Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac
. Florio states we can still choose to exercise the $7.2 Million of Stafford’s base Salary and turn it into bonus or choose not to exercise it and his base Salary remains the $15 Million and in the same breath states the $6 Million roster bonus is fully guaranteed (we knew that because it happened on 3/17/19) but earned and payable in 2020… both can not be true if $1.2 hit our cap already in 2019, something was executed already for that to have taken place … Yet Jason’s (OverTheCap) numbers reflect, we already have done both as he moved $13.2 Million around and a dummy year created . A dummy year could not have been created already with $3 Million in dead space if these things have not already happened …
This is where your mistake is. If a roster bonus is fully guaranteed when a contract is signed, it is amortized over the life of the contract, regardless of when it’s paid.
This is also why OTC’s and Spotrac’s cap page won’t match, since the roster bonus is payable in 2020 but it is written off over the life of the new contract, starting in 2019. It matches for cap purposes, but not cash paid purposes.
That sheet that you are looking at is correct for salary cap purposes, but not for cash paid purposes. OTC tried to make it correct for both purposes, but it’s still not correct, that’s why Florio is saying they aren’t correct. It all stems from the 2020 $6M fully guaranteed roster bonus, that will be paid on 03/22/20, but because Stafford signed a contract restructure in 2019, it was amortized over the life of the contract, starting in 2019 when signed.
What did the contract restructure say? It could have said anything i.e. It could have been a contract that called for 2023 added at a base salary of $10M, but it is also voidable by Stafford on or before the start of the 2023 league year. The Lions also have an option to pay Stafford an option bonus of $7.2M and that would reduce his base salary in 2020 from $15M to $7.8M. That year being added does nothing, as Stafford can void the year if he wants and obviously the Lions can cut him if he elects not to void the 2023 year.
So, because of the restructure the Lions added $1.2M in cap hit to 2019, reduced the 2020 cap hit by $10.2M, added $3M to 2021, 2022 and 2023. What does Stafford get for his trouble? - $7.2M in March instead of over the 17 week season and it does absolutely nothing but play salary cap games.
Florio is right with what he is saying, Spotrac is right from a cap perspective, but not from a cash paid perspective. He’s right in that it’s a $32M dead cap if Stafford would be traded after the option bonus is exercised, but it’s only $24.8M if he’s traded before the option is exercised (he can’t put both in his cap sheet). Jason’s numbers are pretty close to being right, everything is right from a cap perspective and he still has the $6M roster bonus as being paid in 2020, but has it correctly amortized over the life of the contract. Jason also notes that his dead cap figure is only correct if the Lions exercise the option bonus and then trade Stafford
https://twitter.com/Jason_OTC/status/1227961226208141312
If you can understand that a fully guaranteed roster bonus is amortized over the life of the contract, regardless of when it’s paid . . . Florio, Spotrac and Jason make sense.
Just an FYI, if we trade Stafford before paying the 03/22 Roster bonus and $7.2M Option bonus, we’d have $24.8M in dead cap this year but we’d receive a $6M credit in 2021 because we never paid the fully guaranteed roster bonus, the new team would.
It’s all understood , I get all of it , Jason saying something in a tweet I did not see , does not reflect what the site says . His tweet actually clears up a lot seeing it now.
My last question …If you do not mind answering . Like I said I understand what you wrote . What I do not understand is …and actually the last paragraph by you is what for me validates what my question is , you wrote this
This makes no sense to me, you are saying the roster bonus has not been paid by us yet , the $6 Million… that $6M is staying the same and being paid as the contract was originally written (Or we restructured it and kept it the same no difference) and its being paid on 3/22/20 and if they do trade him prior to 3/22/20 the new team is paying his $6 Million dollar Bonus and not us …Got it . In the same scenario he is traded before 3/22/20 and we did not change or use the option that turned the $7.2 mill into bonus and kept his salary at $15 mill the new team is paying his $15 Mill salary hence the dead cap hit for us is only $24.8 Mill instead of the $32 Mill it is currently listed as… a difference of $7.2 Million…understood, this all makes sense, the numbers work and this is what the paragraph I quoted above by you says … This leads me right back to what my issue has been …For all of this to be true, the whole we would only have a dead cap of $24.8 this year instead of the $32 Million in dead cap a $7.2 difference and according to you we would also get a $6 Million dollar credit in 2021 because we would not be the team paying the $6 Mill bonus because we traded him prior to it being do on 3/22/20… How is it we had $1.2 Million accelerated onto our 2019 cap ? If none of these restructures have happened yet and we can avoid them by trading him prior to 3/22 what happened to the $1.2 that hit our cap in 2019 what was that for ? For the $1.2 mill to have been some part of a prorated sum of the money that we restructured that amortized when signed in late 2019 and effected our cap when signed as it did (The $1.2 Mill ) some part has already happened … How is that if we (as in your quoted scenario above) we would avoid the $7.2 Million and the $6 Million Dollar bonus , a total of $13.2 Million $7.2 in 2020 and the credit of $6 Million in 2021 . What happened to the $1.2 Million we paid in 2019 that was part of the restructure ? It was a $13.2 Million dollar restructure all $13.2 Million is accounted for in your quoted paragraph …what was the $1.2 in 2019 ?
Stafford’s not going anywhere in 2020, so it’s all a moot point.
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In NYL’s defense, there’s something in the math that he’s trying to figure out is all. A variable that’s missing as he’s hashing it out. This isn’t about the viability as really everyone knows it’s moot. It’s really just about reconciling the numbers to where it makes sense. And to that end, I have nothing to add. (pun intended)
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I’ve seen the 24 mil number reported a few places as well. For me it doesn’t matter if it’s 32m, 24m, 2m or 40m. He’s still tradedable.
It really comes down to two things in my mind and the money cost isn’t it.
Does Matt Stafford want to play in DET?
What’s the back injuries long term outlook?
If the answer to either question doesn’t look good than you trade him period.
I am a Stafford fan. I think that if he can stay healthy than the Lions chances to win go up significantly.
However … rumor is that Kelly was the leak to channel 4 news about the Stafford trade talks. Which has people wondering if Stafford wants out of Det.
Stafford has always maintained that he wants to win in DET. So I would say the odds are very low that these rumors are true. Which means to me the odds are low the Lions would trade him.
After the Superbowl, the nfl reconciles the books of each team for items that were earned and paid, but not charged against last years cap or was charged to last years cap, but was unearned and not paid. This is usually a reconciliation of Likely To Be Earned Incentives and Unlikely To Be Earned Incentives. This roster bonus would fall into that category.
I’m having a hard time following what you are asking. If Stafford is traded, the acquiring team assumes all details of that contract and they would have the right to pay that $7.2M option bonus and reduce his 2020 base salary, they would also have to pay the $6M fully guaranteed roster bonus on 03/22.
That $6M roster bonus is a goofy situation. So lets just look at that detail and only that detail. Because it was fully guaranteed at the time that Stafford signed his contract restructure, that bonus is amortized over the length of the contract. And that’s what we currently have on the books, $1.2M salary cap charge to each year 2019-2023. If he is traded before we pay that Roster bonus, the acquiring team is responsible that bonus and all amortization for that bonus for us is accelerated into 2020. So if Stafford were traded, from that $6M bonus that was never paid by us, we have a charge to our 2019 cap for $1.2M and 2020 $4.8M. So when the NFL does it’s reconciliation for the 2020 league year in February of 2021, they would see that we were charged $6M roster bonus for Stafford that we never paid.
So, if Stafford was traded, we’d have $4.8M dead cap from that roster bonus and we’d have $20M in dead cap from the $50M signing bonus that we paid in 2017, for a total of $24.8M in dead cap . . . plus we’d receive a $6M credit in February of 2021 when the NFL reconciles the 2020 league year.
The point is probably moot, as unless Stafford is demanding a trade, it probably won’t happen.
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I mean, whether it’s $24 million or $32 million…aren’t both of those numbers enough to call him untradeable?
Crystal clear …Much appreciated. Prior to discussing this no one ever referred to Stafford’s restructure by any other term other than Stafford had converted his roster bonus that was due and part of his base salary from 2020 into signing bonus …Every site had it listed as signing bonus . Nothing about an option to not execute something , not about his roster bonus parameters staying intact . When we had the extra cap room last year I figured they were looking to utilize some of it and to clear the way for some space down the road …really more from how it was broken down on the sites …So Stafford if we choose to pay his $15 base salary instead of lowering the cap # the remaining years are going to change with less of a dead cap hit …without reporting as anything other than converting it to signing bonus I did not see it being variable …I get it now and thanks for being patient …Kudos to you .
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If we keep Stafford, he counts $21.3M against the cap. If we trade Stafford, he counts $24.8M against the cap. With the cap at $200M, does $3.5M make a guy untradeable? Plus we save $39M in 2021 and $26M in 2022.
The reason why you don’t trade Stafford is because of his talent, not because of the numbers say he is untradeable, because they don’t.
Now if someone comes in with a Hershel Walker trade offer . . . well it’s a good thing Stafford is actually tradeable.
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Maybe the Lions can get rid of Stafford and become the first non-QB team in the modern NFL That way they don’t have to pay anyone to be QB and we can use that saving on getting the best of the best at every other position.
Posting again - My 1st post was so long…No one reads walls of texts.
Thanks for the response. Always appreciated! I will still argue that Stafford is not an option for a trade because of his cap number.
Keep Stafford = $21.3 million + we have a QB under center
Trade Stafford = $24.8 million but we don’t have a QB. We’d have to sign another QB and add to this number.
Option 2 is obviously not an option. You have to have a QB to compete in this league.
So, the Lions could draft Tua at #3, but there are issues with that plan. First - Tua’s camp has come out and said that they’d love to see him essentially sit his first year to heal and learn. If we trade Stafford, that’s not an option.
The Lions could consider signing a vet like Keenum or Flacco, but now they’ve got to pay one of those guys on TOP of the dead cap. We’d have over $30 million invested at QB with Joe Flacco calling the plays? Oof!!! The only realistic option here would be to play the rookie, which Tua’s camp seems to have some pause about.
Additionally, the Lions would need to trade Stafford when they were on the clock at #3. You can’t trade Stafford prior to being on the clock because someone could make a deal with Washington and leap the Lions. Risky, risky business there.
I won’t get into why I want to move on from Stafford - Just going to stick to the #'s here. The numbers and Tua wanting a redshirt year make this a tricky, difficult situation for the Lions.
I’m 99.9% sure the Lions won’t be trading Stafford anyhow, so this is all moot. Nevertheless, it’s always an interesting topic when your team’s franchise QB is rumored to be on the block. It’s hard to not dive into the numbers and possibilities.
Thanks again for the response and sharing your cap savvy with us - always appreciated!
If we were to trade Stafford, we would free up $65M in 2021 and 2022. We could easily get a QB on a three year deal for less than that.
If they were going to trade Stafford, it would be before they forked over another $13.2M in Mid March. If we pay the roster and option bonus, there is 0% chance of Stafford getting traded (down from the 2% chance there is right now). If we pay the option and/or the roster bonus, he’s not going anywhere.
I’m fine with Stafford as our QB. The cap implications aren’t the issue. If Stafford is on the team, he counts $21.3M toward the cap, if he is traded by mid March, he counts $24.8M against this years cap. $3.5M on a $200M cap won’t stop any team from doing anything. Plus we save $65M in 2021 and 2022. If we don’t trade Stafford by Mid March, it’s because Quinn and Patricia think that he is too good to trade.
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Dead Stroke and NewYorkLion, loved the dialog and conversation. Great discussion!
I agree that cap is not really the factor here. I mean it is, but it isn’t. At the end of the day I really hope that if we go with a QB at #3 that it’s because of Stafford’s back. I feel like he’s going to be okay so I think we keep him, do the wise thing and draft Defense.