I think you have a pretty good grasp of things. If the Chargers give Herbert $100M in cash this year, the lowest cap hit would be $20.8M ($98,900,000 signing bonus and $1,010,000 base salary), a $19M cap hit would be $90M signing bonus and $1M base salary . . . so there’s some rounding some where.
Chargers were all in last year and injuries took their toll, they are all in again this year.
I think , the negotiating leverage referenced, is more that Holmes has set limits to what he is willing and not willing to do for various contracts. If Goff demands more than what Holmes is willing to do then, like Swaggy rejecting Detroit’s offer and settling, you will see Holmes turn to Hooker.
No idea if I’m right, just my thought based on how Holmes has done things in a short while, However, we have not seen any player come up for a “big cap % $ contract” under his management.
Slowly learning.
Thanks
I know some in the media say it does and some on here say it does, but it really doesn’t.
I’d love to see Hooker succeed and I think he gets a chance to compete with Goff next year or the year after, but you can’t move on from Goff and hope that you got lucky with Hooker. You don’t win without a QB.
I love the idea of endless windows of winning as much as anyone. Do I think it’s realistic in a “non destination” football city? Nope.
Dead’s list of 3rd round QBs is pretty ugly (going back to 90’) but I would consider Russ Wilson to be the best comp of the list. Russ turned 24 in his rookie season, and Hooker will turn 26 toward the end of it. Like Wilson he was a multi sport star (basketball), had a transfer in college, and was a red shirt…. Hooker does have the physical tools, and his mobility is a plus…. I’m not big on him, but I am a LOT higher on him than than 90% of 3rd-4th round QB prospects. I like him in the same realm as I did Ridder…. We shall see how that plays out since he has Pitts, London, and Bijan already around him.
The 2025 salary cap is expected to be $272MM… and when Goff last got extended (prior to 2019) it was only 188MM
There were 10 QBs paid over 27M in 2019…. That’s 15%…. Let’s presume Goff got 50M per… but we know that he won’t actually hit a cap figure of 50M until 26’ or later…. By 2026 it’s expected to be $298M- and if a QB is at 50M of that it’s 16.7%…
since the Chargers example started this…. I would say the 140M they are collectively scheduled to pay M Williams, K Allen, Bosa and K Mack is where they dropped the ball…. 140MM in 2024!!! Even after the restructured- still almost 60M between them in 23’!
now take a look at J Sweat, N Smith, H Reddick, AJ Brown and D Smith over the next 2 years….
THE EAGLES PAY THOSE 5 GUYS A COMBINED 80MM OVER 2 YEARS!!! Versus the Chargers paying 200M over 2 years for their 4….
It’s why I was such ab advocate of Darnell Wright/B Jones, Lukas Van Ness or JSN in round 1 this year.
Unless Hutch takes that TJ Watt leap, I’m not giving him 32-35M… if so- sure. Unless Sewell moves to LT after 2 all pro years I’m not giving him 30M plus…. Lastly ASB- and yes I’d already give him 23M per and extend him early.
I think Goff could have been had for 45M per in the early offseason when the Lamar stale mate was going on. Now I think it’s 48-50M and I’d pay it.
Extension to Goff or st brown won’t be expensive til 2026…. That will be a cheap ish 1-2nd year of Sewell and Hutch will still be a 5th year option. The cap will be huge by then.
If we can keep the bulk of our team from now til 2026- then we pick the right 1-2 years to go all in…. If we move on from Goff, Hooker is Mariota at best, and we start over with a 15% success rate rookie- we will blow our 25-27’ window desperately searching for a QB- see Washington
Yeah im a bit conflicted but im fine if Goff signs to market value (Prolly around 45 mill rn) and not a fully guaranteed contract lol
COnsidering cap will jump alot more in a year or two, having goff around that would be huge for keeping the core together
Watch what he does with Kellen Moore
Lombardi is trash
Herbert is certified
Herbert’s a stud no doubt about it imo. He’s probably QB4 in the league in terms of talent and projection for me. But that’s a lot of money and in a couple years it’s basically gonna be Allen/Mahomes/Burrrow/(maybe Lawrence), captaining decent not great rosters in a QB vs QB showdown.
The team friendly aspect of it is they didn’t have to go crazy in terms of years. It also benefits Herbert but more so the team because if he’s a stud he’s gonna want a new contract anyway halfway through a longer deal. This protects them in case of injury or just straight bust.
Hate that the QB landscape is like this. IMO, It literally makes no sense to pay guys who aren’t slam dunk elite. And there’s about 3-5 of those guys at any time in the NFL. I can’t imagine being a Giants/Cowboys/Cardinals fan and having to support Daniel Jones/Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray for better or for worse.
Preach on
True. The not Goff option may not even be on the roster, who knows. But having hendon on the roster is at least a bargaining chip at the very least…….more then likely they give him a fair market value deal if he wants it.
We agree, although, I might take a Wilson at his peak over a Goff. Hendon Hooker isn’t any of those guys.
Hooker is on the roster for a reason. Poker chip, future starter, career backup……who knows. But having him is a lot better then not and gives the lions options say Goff doesn’t want to stay or asks for a number they don’t want to pay. Lots of moving parts. 
But….if we don’t elect to pay Goff and let him play out his last two years, he walks and we get nothing in return for a still young veteran multiple PB QB
Then Hooker takes over in the third year of his rookie deal and if we’re lucky enough that he plays as well as Goff, he will also be looking for a top money deal. So we get what, one year with an inexpensive starting QB?
Yeah…maybe…maybe he signs a deal like Geno Smith due to only having one successful season under his belt. Maybe he’s better than Goff and it makes sense to give him a massive extension. Maybe he sucks…there’s several possible scenarios.
Goffs career is similar to Carson Wentz. His 2021 season he threw for 3600yds, 27tds and 7ints with a passer rating of 94.6. Not a special season but a solid one. Even if Goff has a couple of good statistical years, but accomplishes nothing in terms of playoff wins, he isn’t going to be some highly coveted 2025 FA. If he doesn’t win in the postseason, he will be a Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins type FA. And who cares if we can’t re-sign that guy? I personally don’t…call me crazy.
The argument is that you don’t have to “hope that you got lucky with Hooker.” You know from Hooker’s college days that he offers some solid basics to work with, maybe more/better than that. Now you pair him w/great position coaches, a great head coach and team/organizational culture, and you’d have to be UNLUCKY for him not to deliver what the team needs at the QB position. Throw is the significant savings while Hooker remains on his rookie contract, which can buy you needed goodies at other positions, and going w/Hooker rather than paying Goff (or anyone who’s not a genuine superstar at the QB position) is the way to go.
Mind you, this is not MY position. But it’s my understanding of the argument, most forcefully articulated by JD, for not giving Goff a “market rate” contract when the time comes.
Well, he has shown that he can in the playoff’s previously. The Lions look to be putting him in a similar if not better position now than his last playoff run.
Correct, he will have that opportunity. And if he fails, then what?
We have Goff signed for 2-3 years including tag, we have HH on the roster for the same timeline if not longer. Point being, not worrying about it now as the Lions haven’t resigned him and I think they wait til the offseason.
If they do sign him prior will, like JJackson, wait to see what the numbers are first.