Just be RIGHT!

All Activity NFL
1

Do we go QB in round 1? If so it’s Fields, Fields, or Fields for me. Will he bust? Maybe, but when a guy was a top 2 National recruit, has a 51 TD 3 INT season as a sophomore, and then at over 225 pounds he ran a 4.44 forty (faster than Cam close to the supposed number Lamar put up at a 2017 Louisville field day?)!!!

Is Fields a more polished passer than LJax or Newton were coming out? Not even close, at this point it was still being debated if Jackson would be a WR or just a wildcat or slash type weapon. We are talking multiple playoff appearances, playoff wins, a SB appearance, and a pair of MVPs here.

So if Fields projects as a better passer, with lesser leg talent, than he likely stays healthier, and has a longer and more prosperous career than two very proven comps. I know somebody will say neither guy has done shit, but then neither has Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and frankly I don’t expect any of those 4 guys to win a SB or MVP this year either.

The closest comps I have to Fields is honestly J Allen or Watson (pre scandal) and they’d be the #2 choices for me in all of football after Mahomes right now.

———————————————————————

That said- I’m not spending all of our draft capital to move up, and again, I’m not sure about Fields- I haven’t broken down film, don’t really know how to break down film, nor have I interviewed him. I’d be asking J Jackson a bit about him as a leader since he’s been in the huddle with he and Stafford.

———————————————————————

The other options? Stay at #7 and BE RIGHT, or move down and take more chances to BE RIGHT!!!

The Rams D was #12, #20, and #17 in 2017, 2018, and 2019- so a bit of personnel improvement and some better coaching and scheme and we could be in that range in 2 years. 2020 was the only top 12 D Goff ever played with.

What about the O?

Goff
Gurley
Woods
Watkins/Cooks
Kupp
Higbee

Whitworth
Saffold
Sullivan
Blythe
Havenstein

At first glance that looks daunting- BUT…

Decker has been pretty close to Whit sans 2020 when Whit dominated at “39!” He never sniffed a pro bowl til 31 years of age!!

I think Jackson clearly falls short of Saffold, but is a better than expected at this stage.

Ragnow is well superior to Sullivan.

Big V could easily prove to be as good ir better than Blythe, though maybe still not live up to price tag…

Havenstein is where the difference lies. If we had a 70-75 off RT then we would ultimately have a better and younger OL than the Rams have in 5 years, and with everyone under contract!!

-So we have to find a stud RT

-we add a RB and attack by committee

  • what about WR?? 17- Watkins, Kupp, Woods, Reynolds- 2300 yards 19 tds… 2018 with Cooks, Woods, Cupp, Reynolds they had 3400 yards and 22 tds…

I think we have the speed element in place in T Will and Perriman that Watkins, Cooks provided. In the 3 seasons they had Watkins or Cooks, those guys averaged 800 yards and 5 tds… I expect some injuries between TWill and Perriman, but I also expect 16-19 starts between them- and a collective 1200 yards and 8 tds… so I’d equate Permian and Williams to Cooks and Reynolds in LA…

Do I think given 80 targets that Cephus could be the 50-55 catch and 850 yards 6 td guy Cupp has been? Honestly yes I do…

Even if Cephus had proves to be well below Kupp ( very possible) I’d still take Cephus and Hock over Kupp and Higbee.

So we are left with R woods- here is the really tough one.

———————————————————————

First question? If Fields is there do we take him, let him sit a year or half a year, and then flip Goff for a first and 4th next year? Yes we have a 30M dead cap, but we’d pay him 31M so it’s same/same…

Fields and Goff cost the same in 2021 that Parsons and Goff would…

Fields, Goff Dead Money Hit, and top LB next year would still cost about the same as Goff and Parsons next year.

The dead cap is 1M less than actual hit, and the LB we’d take mid rd 1 next year with Goff pick would cost 2.2M so it’s really a 1-2M cap space swing in 2022- and huge gain in 2023- like 24M!!!

2

Let’s say they don’t go Fields, or he’s not there (likely)…

#7- Sewell? The upside is the elite set of bookends right? The downside, for some reason that never seems to work, or last- see Lewan and Conklin. I’m not sure Sewell and his ego will happily accept coming to Detroit and moving to RT immediately. Such a valuable chip to be played on moving a guy who hasn’t played in a year to a position he hasn’t played. Or really upset apple cart and force your current 27 year old, near pro bowl LT to move to a spot he’s definitely not as equipped to play and potentially have a disgruntled unit by week 1 of new regime.

Pass- I see easier ways to find a cheaper RT who fits the mold, wants to play there and potentially gives us another pick or 2…

#7 Pitts? Nope. He’s Jimmy Graham. A young Jimmy Graham is awesome, but not the guy I’d build this roster around given its current makeup, again pissing in the face of one of our best young players. Teams don’t take TEs in round 1. Definitely not top 10… certainly not 2 in 3 years. Period! Calling him a weapon, a big WR etc doesn’t matter- nope!!

Smith/Waddle- nope. I’ve now watched enough tape to feel confident neither will be Antônio Brown or T Hill… their bodies simply aren’t Julio, Fitz, Hopkins, etc. not even Jefferson.

So what’s left??

R Slater- he’s probably the 2nd best fit in the draft. Does anyone doubt he’d play RT or RG at potential pro bowl level? I don’t. He’s got 4.88 speed, explosive 34” vertical and 33 bench reps showing strength and dedication to the gym. I feel confident between he and Big V they man the right side at a high level and between them they’d average 6.5M per the next 3 years thus potentially not requiring us to cut Big V next year if he shows solid improvement. That means extend Rags and have 5 OL guys under 27 with at least 3 years each left and 39M per year combined.

J Chase- probably the best fit in the draft. He’s a better prospect than most in the draft. Size, speed, production, and film. Jump balls were validated by his vertical. Beating guys in go routes was validated by his 4.3 forty. He measured well vs seeing Bateman shrink 2 inches and lose 23 pounds at weigh in vs his supposed playing weight.

  • Chase wouldn’t surprise anyone if he had 1,000 yards and 7-9 tds as a rookie.

Question- look at Cedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson profiles from last year. Both guys were 6’1-6’2” and 195-200 pounds. They ran official 40s at 4.51 and 4.43 respectively. They had nearly 3,000 yards and 30 tds between them against top talent.

Would Smith or Waddle really grade out better at a #1 option than either guy who went far after #7 last year.

  • Parsons- he’s the wildcard. Do I see the urlacher comp? Maybe- though Urlacher had safety skills and ideal MLB size. Parsons was faster, Urlacher much stronger with better coverage film. I still don’t know how less than 20 reps happened at 245 pounds and short arms if he truly dedicated himself to training for the job interview of his life.

Patrick Willis, D White, Vilma, Keuchly, Urchlacher, D Bush, Bobby Wagner, Demorrio Davis, all guys with sub 4.59 speed at MLB but all guys with 21-33 bench reps.

Both opting out, combined with not having ideal strength, and lacking coverage tape make assuming he will be the next Wagner, Willis, or Urlacher a leap of faith.

2 Likes
3

One thing…Fields threw 41 TDs against 3 INTs as a sophomore

1 Like
4

So Fields, Chase or Slater, or trade down?

Don’t tell me Jerry Jones doesn’t offer his #10, Michael Gallup and a 2021 third for #7. With Dak, Zeke and Amari locked up, Lamb cheap for 3 more years, you think they want to play behind a broken OL? Sewell or Slater go a long way for them! They can’t afford to resign Gallup. Next year we can.

His 23 and 24 age seasons averaged about 970 yards and 5/6 tds- see our Robert Woods!!

  1. Lawrence
  2. Wilson
  3. Fields
  4. Pitts
  5. Sewell- they have to protect Burrow
  6. J Chase- at least it should be
  7. Dallas Trade- R Slater- fills any number of holes along a once dominant OL.
  8. Lance- panthers trade for Darnold was a cheap hedge compared to an expensive trade up. They have the weapons for an open competition.
  9. Mac Jones- not sure whether Denver pulls the trigger or trades down to New England or WFT- but he goes here.

10- Detroit Lions- with a 2021 3rd, and Gallup they have plugged some holes already. Gallup looks like an elite WR2 we can afford to sign next year…

With Waddle, Smith, and every defender still available, there could be one more trade down?

At this point it would be hard not to go Parsons if the teams believes in his character and ability to drop in coverage.

Parsons/Gallup
Rd 2- trade up to #30 ish with Rams 3rd and #41 and take Elijah Moore who I think is on par with Waddle.
Trade- trade our 3rd and 2022 2nd to move into late 2nd and draft best RG/RT available-
Cowboys 3rd- FS

4th - a DT will fall be it Twyman due to 40, Marvin Wilson, T Slaton NT, C Sample, etc. nice rotational piece.

Gallup
E Moore
Starting RT completes our O

Parsons, FS, and DT really helps the D.

Still have 2 firsts and 2 3rds next year.

5

“Just be RIGHT!” sounds like something my wife would say. I’d then proceed with the process of getting us lost.

3 Likes
6

My wife tells me that and no matter what I’m still wrong… :man_facepalming:

2 Likes
7

FYI - 4.44 hand held, is probably 4.55 - 4.60 at the combine.

Still plenty fast.

8

Our wives should meet. They’d be friends. We can go watch Justin Fields highlights and they’ll talk about the things we screw up.

2 Likes
9

LMAO…you nailed that one my friend I totally agree :laughing:

1 Like
10

I am calming my tits about Justin Fields because it would be a miracle if he falls to 7.

11

I have never been this ambivalent about what we do on draft day. I trust Brad and am cool with whatever he does. Feels a bit odd to be at peace like this but the first few months have just been so damn rock solid IMO.

3 Likes
12

I think the talent has a lot to do with your ambivalence, too. You obsess over this more than most and have a good feel for where the strength of the draft is, which isn’t the top 10 except for 3 or 4 QBs. I bet if you could turn pick 7 into a 15 and 40 you’d do it in a heartbeat and would have some definite favorites at those spots.

13

I do have preferences, but this is my overall feel as well. This is my deeper truth. I honestly don’t expect to get my own way. I could likely be wrong if I did. LOL. I think they have more info, and have put more energy, with better resources, and better way of thinking…and more experience in thinking this way. I value their opinions much more than my own, on this topic.

14

Agree.

I hear some of the historically negative posters repeating the phrases ‘we seen this before’, ‘what’s different this time’, or whatever.

This time around there has been a significant departure from the neanderthal processes used previously. If you can’t see that, I don’t know what to tell you.

We ended up with BQ, because non-Lion, super-senior Ernie Accorsi whispered BQ’s name in 92 year old Marthas ear.
BQ turns out to be a disaster, and compounds it by giving the HC job to obese pencil-head guy, based on one speech he gave to the NE defense regarding the death of Junior Seau. Disaster #2.

No other GM’s or HC’s were truly considered. Abomination all the way around.

This time the younger, more involved owner was smart enough to involve a few lifetime, diehard Lions legends who bleed honolulu blue in a somewhat epic interview marathon. They put the work in, and considered every option available.

Obviously nothing is ever guaranteed in sports, but the methodology has been undeniably different, and better.

2 Likes
15

Exactamund. He’s going 3rd overall, I’d bet a lot of money on it.

1 Like
16

He absolutely should. No brainer IMO. But Mac Daddy make you …

image

1 Like
17

Draft bust rate is a real thing…

It would appear S, C, OG, LB, and OT are the most predictable success rate in rounds 1-3…

CB- Tough to gauge likely because college CBs most weeks are covering guys with 4.6 plus speed and average size. How many wrs at MSU, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, etc stand 6’2” and run 4.45 forties with elite hands? As an Ohio State or Michigan CB, you might be asked to cover 3-4 nfl caliber wrs a year, and even then it’s somewhat rare for college DBs to shadow like Revis Island. Then factor that some CBs play elite safeties behind them to keep a lot on the offense and allow more successful gambles on ints. Other CBs have elite pass rush in front of them, or a defense the stops the run and forces predictable 3rd and long passing scenarios where play action isn’t a threat.

RB- see Trent Richardson vs Alvin Kamara. One guy had holes to drive a truck through. Kamara was on a team with a running QB, and J Hurd who got more carries despite averaging 3.7 ypc vs Kamaras 6 ypc???

WR- this one is the toughest I think. About 3 QBs in the COUNTRY each year have nfl starter level talent. That means 300 plus starting WRs are catching balls from the likes of anyone from Reggie Ball (Calvin had 66% of that teams receiving yards and Tds!), to Lewerke to Shea Patterson or state Fourcier.

Sidebar- did any Michigan fans guess in a million years that Nico Collins or DPJ would run 4.35-4.4 forties? They spent their college careers with a guy under center with a noodle arm and bad timing. Collins might have had 1,400 yards in Bama or OSU.

——————————————————————-

So RG, RT, FS, and LB seem to be some of the safest picks. Also pretty deep in the draft.

-7
Parsons
Leatherwood
Richie Grant
Nico Collins

-Trade down
Zaven Collins
Leatherwood
Elijah Moore
Richie Grant
Nico Collins

I see either group as massively helping our roster

18

I want Fields to drop badly (I don’t think he does) to watch us pass and have the board go nuts in typical lions fan fashion.

I have loved every bit that has happened this offseason. And I also will be on board with whatever is decided. I don’t claim to know more than the front office/coaching staff that has done nothing but impress so far.

1 Like
19

I obviously can not get into your brain and explain why YOU feel that way. What I can say is how I feel and that there are alot of people like me or at least have an element of it. I give a new regime a chance, and defer to their decision making when they first arrive. I have a blind trust in them, and I try to support them even if it means turning a blind eye. A few years into things, if they prove they are incapable, or they prove a pattern of interior decisions I turn on them. While I would stab a 2021 Bob Quinn in the throat for taking Kyle Pitts, I will give this new staff a chance if that’s the direction they decide.

But I also wanted to talk about the second part. Even though we have our own feelings about Millen, Mayhew and Quinn as our most recent GMs…we were rewarded in their first drafts. Millen landed 3 starters with his first 3 picks. Mayhew landed 4 starters with his first 4 picks. Quinn landed 3 starters with his first 3 picks, and 4 of his other picks are still in the league.

20

Bob Quinn really didn’t do that bad of a job in the first round. Decker, Davis, Ragnow, Hock, and Okudah.

Davis is a bust, but assuming Okudah turns out that’s not half bad. He was a terrible GM though. I mean you have to be horrible to think Tabor and Tavai were decent 2nd round picks.

I am really curious to see what Martin Mayhew will do with WFT. People thought he was terrible and I didn’t think he was half bad. He was so close with just a couple of different bounces like Best and Titus Young. If he had drafted Stafford, Suh, and Calvin with the rookie cap things might have been different. He did have his mistake drafts too.

1 Like