Is he the last pitcher to have a shot at 300 wins, a very long shot at that. He is 43 wins away from 300 and you have to think it is why he keeps going at 41yrs old.
I’d love to see him do it, but I wouldn’t bet on it and yes, last pitcher to have a shot at it. Different ERA and he was a horse for many years.
If he didn’t lose the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he’d have gotten there.
Good point on the 2020 and 2021 seasons hadn’t considered that.
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Julio Urias was going to have a real shot at 200.
Aaron Nola has 90 and just signed a 7 year deal for age 31-37. He has a very good shot to get to 200, maybe on that deal,.maybe a year later.
Berrios has been durable if not spectacular and started early.
But, as far as talent, those names that fall in this 10 year run of starters now age 28 to 37 is pretty poor in comparison to the premium guys left from the previous 10 year group of Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Grienke, Sabathia,.King Felix, etc.
Maybe the group under 27 now will have better results overall, but the wins metric is.still going to be tough to crest 200.
Weird.
I think the analytic movement has probably killed 300win potential for any starter going forward. I think most coaches now want the starter to get through the order twice and then, at first sign of trouble, they go to the pen. Analytics show that most pitchers falter facing lineups for the third time in a game.
I also wonder what will happen to the relievers and the save records moving forward. Hinch is somewhat going to the latest model of putting your “closer” in for high pressure moments later in the game vs saving them for the 9th inning. Another analytic impact.
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Man, you’d think he’d be closer with the sort of career he’s had.
John Smoltz memories on that comment.
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In the late 60s/70s pitchers were developed differently and they were building those arms with a different methodology. They would throw their games and then throw on the sides a few times between games to build the endurance. Now we save the arm for games and we put more pressure on those arms with the overthrown fastball and the off speed mix that further pressures the arm.
Toss in that complete games are also long gone. We take pitchers out of no-hitter situations these days. Boggles my mind.
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If he somehow made it… that would be incredible considering starters average like 4 to 5 innings per start in modern baseball
JV missed 2 full years, pitched hurt all 2015 and had 3 wins in 20 starts, and had one inexplicable 11-17 4.8 ERA year right in his Normal Human Pitcher peak age range .
I’d expect that kind of history for a guy w 17 seasons, really. 85% fully or nearly fully healthy.
I’ts just harder to rack wins.
3 more years at 14 a year +1 is probably too much to ask. He has to stay fully healthy, play for a great team with big run support and a great bullpen. And not decline like almost every age 41 full time pitcher has done. Ryan, Spahn, ummm…that’s about it. 1 guy per 25 year generation and JV is probably it, but it’ll still be really hard.
Big Unit hit 41 and turned mortal (still above league average though), but grunted out 5 years to get to 303 wins.
Maddux was 37 when he became a 4 ERA guy, still grunted out 6 more years.
Clemens was more like Ryan, but he did 2 last years not even signing until June at 42 and 43. Oh yes, and JUICE
Seaver was bumpy his last 5 years 37-41, Carlton was a punching bag, really terrible last 3 years.
I dont see Glavine or Blylevem at JVs level of talent and pretty much all the other HoF starters didnt make it to 41 or 41 was their last year of effectiveness.