Usually when you see a team regress you just need to look back to their drafts from recent years and you will find a draft class that underperformed.
I think the 2025 class has shown plenty of promise and I suspect the Lions will bounce back some as a result but the 2024 class is the class that slowed the Lions progress. It is not about potential but about the contributions.
How would you rate these players and this draft classes contributions to the Lions success this past season?
1: Terrion Arnold CB
2: Ennis Rakestraw CB
4: Giovanni Manu OT
4: Sione Vaki RB/S
6: Mekhi Wingo DT
6: Christian Mahogany OG
I feel like the Lions had super strong 2022 and 2023 classes and we saw the team surge up in 2023 and 2024 as a result.
2024’s draft class hasn’t contributed much and that caused a regression in 2025.
The 2025 class has been good but needs to get significantly better and the 2024 class needs to contribute more for the Lions to bounce back in 2026.
I only expect three players from the 2024 draft to continue to contribute and show improvement going forward. Vaki, Mahogany, and Arnold the rest will end up gone soon.
So, to this point the worst draft of Holmes tenure with only two significant potential contributors; Mahogany who I think will do well. Arnold being the other who, imo, was showing signs of improving week to week but injury bug reduces the improvement ability.
In looking at that draft it definitely looks like BH thought he was the smartest GM in the room.
Lots of reaches.
Rakestraw was too small
Manu had UDFA skills
Vaki was drafted out of position
Wingo I think has just been injured and unlucky but was right sized as far as draft position IMO
I am hoping BH has seen the errors in his ways and will go back to a more traditional draft and targeting guys with at least higher floors. Rakestraw/Manu/Vaki were all high risk picks for a multitude of reasons. Need to limit that to 1 a draft not 3.
When I look back at that draft, the contrast between what the Eagles did and what the Lions did is pretty stark. Both teams invested heavily in cornerbacks early, but the outcomes diverged. The Eagles came away with two Pro Bowl–level CBs in Mitchell and DeJean (who made his first Pro Bowl this year), while the Lions did not see that same return.
To be fair, Philadelphia drafted slightly earlier than Detroit, so that context matters and shouldn’t be ignored. Still, it’s frustrating to see how well that worked out for them.
When I look for obvious misses - players the Lions clearly should have taken instead of their own picks - I actually don’t see many after Rakestraw. Injuries complicate evaluation, but I would have liked to see more from him. That said, there isn’t a long list of players drafted after him who are clearly great and make the pick look indefensible.
With Terrion Arnold, the evaluation is tougher. There were other very good players available who could have addressed the CB need, and the Cowboys leveraged the trade-down with us to essentially rebuild their offensive line. Arnold feels close to being a good pick - he’s consistently in position - but he doesn’t finish enough plays. Right now, he feels more like a near-miss than a hit.
I think Arnold is underrated on this board. The secondary collapsed when he got injured. Next year is a big year for him.
Rakestraw dropped in the draft for a reason (injury concerns) and, naturally, Holmes took him. Big mistake. Maybe we get something out of him next year but I’m doubtful.
Manu was a terrible pick then and remains so until proven otherwise. Holmes’ “Smartest man in the room” pick for that year.
Vaki hasn’t done anything of note. Injuries have derailed him.
Same with Wingo.
I think Mahogany has a chance to be good. He played well when he had a solid line around him. Ragnow leaving hurt his play, and I’d argue that losing Ben Johnson and switching run blocking schemes also hurt the OL effectiveness, so I don’t hold that against him. Let’s see how he does next year with a better OC.
Arnold / Rakestraw: The only thing worse than a rookie CB is 2 rookie CB’s. The only thing worse than 2 rookie CB’s is when 1 of them is always injured. Using 2 premium picks on CB’s is one of the worst things a team can do in the draft, imo. I highly prefer signing the Rock Ya-Sins of the world over trying to roll the dice on an oft-injured position with a low development success rate.
Original Grade: D
New Grade: F
Gio Manu: I liked the pick at the time because it’s a premium position and an intriguing player. I hated it at the time because I think trading better future picks for current lower value ones is a recipe for disaster. Right idea, wrong execution, and unfortunately it’s becoming abundantly clear that Manu is a total bust.
Original Grade: C+
New Grade: D-
Sione Vaki: It was a bit of a head scratcher at the time because I thought the RB room was solid and set for a long time (Gibbs / Montgomery / Reynolds). It’s always a bit odd to draft a guy who played one position in college and then convert him to another before ever seeing him on your own practice field. Vaki is yet another fuzzy projection with perpetual injury issues.
Original Grade: C
New Grade: D
Mekhi Wingo: I loved this pick at the time. I’m always a fan of adding OL and DL any time, any round, especially from solid schools. He flashed a ton of promise early on and then suddenly just kind of disappeared completely. It’s absolutely puzzling how this can happen when an injury isn’t to blame. Wingo is looking like he’s going to be a bust…at least for the Lions. Maybe someone else can find that potential similar to how the Cowboys did with James Houston.
Original Grade: B+
New Grade: C
Christian Mahogany: I loved this pick at the time. As stated, adding OL and DL help anywhere in the draft is always a good thing. Mahogany is proving to be a decent player for a late round selection. He might not be a starting quality player, but he certainly belongs on an NFL roster. Hard to beat that with a 6th round pick!
Original Grade: B+
New Grade: B+
Overall: D-
Holmes has earned a ton of leeway and deference from his first few drafts. There’s no denying that this class is looking like a real stinker though with only Arnold and Mahogany looking like they will / should even be on the roster next year.
Learning Lessons:
CB Lessons:
Never / rarely draft a CB. Nearly every CB takes 2-3 seasons to develop. Most don’t turn into special players. Let other teams waste draft capital on figuring it out.
Never pay a CB big money. Most CB’s end the season on IR or miss significant time. Most teams are fielding DB’s that barely made their practice squads back in September by this time of the year.
Stick to signing FA’s like Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin. You can pay an entire CB room full of these guys the same amount as 1 “star” CB who ends the season on IR anyhow.
Draft Lessons:
Never / rarely trade future draft picks for current ones
Never / rarely trade up
Always be open to trading down and accumulating more picks
Always be open to trading picks for players who have shown who they are / will be
Don’t be afraid to continue to “reach” for players like Manu, but trade down to do so - never, under any circumstances, should Holmes trade up for prospects like this. We’ve seen enough evidence with Martin, Manu, and TeSlaa at this point to know.
Just my 2, or maybe 3 cents.
Edit - Added “rarely” where i previously just had “never”. Extreme, ridged perspectives are rarely the best approach. Never say never, after all.
1: Terrion Arnold CB - I’d grade this a C-. Hes been ok, but we traded up for him.. and there were better corners that went after him. So we used extra resources that could have helped us, and he wasn’t the even best guy at his position. Dejean, Wiggins, Lassiter, etc.
2: Ennis Rakestraw CB - F Absolutely horrid pick. He was small and constantly injured in college and couldn’t test in the process. Reminds me a lot of the teez tabor pick. At this point its looking more likely he will never even contribute before he is off our team.
4: Giovanni Manu OT - F another Horrid pick. A raw player that didn’t even dominate at his school. Traits only, and we used a bunch of resources to take him.
4: Sione Vaki RB/S - C+ - Not a bad pick for this spot, as he is a good special teamer. and for the 4th round that is solid. However, changing his position to RB, and not allowing him to develop on defense instead.. hurt our depth at a spot where we needed it.
6: Mekhi Wingo DT - C A fine pick who has shown a little bit when he’s been able to.. 6th rounder.
6: Christian Mahogany OG - B Also a fine pick with upside for this spot. Counting on him to start in his second year of actual experience though..
The premise of the thread is contributions to this past season. Since the season is one game away from ending do you feel that last game will change your mind on how much they contributed to the season’s success?
It’s really about those first two picks, and it’s impossible to be optimistic about Rakestraw getting/staying healthy enough to grow into whatever he could be given an extensive injury history that goes back to his Missouri days. Mahogany developing into a solid swing guard, if not starter, would help compensate for the huge apparent miss on Rakestraw.
Arnold just needs more time on task. I’m not convinced he’s a legit #1-CB-in-the-making, but he needs to stay healthy before we can know either way.
A meaningful contribution from Manu or Vaki would be a very pleasant surprise at this point.
But he hasn’t had the chance to show anything. I’m on record as not liking the pick, but honestly we have no idea if he’s a good player or not, he hasn’t had a chance to prove it.
