Lions Draft Pick Rooting Guide Week 18:

The Den
1

We got some help with Tampa winning yesterday. We will now pick in front of the NFC South loser (Tampa/Carolina) with a loss ourselves today, as we will win the SOS tiebreaker against either team.

The Lions can pick as high as 12th. Miami has clinched the SOS tiebreaker against us, so if we both finish 8-9, the Dolphins are guaranteed to pick in front of us.

Here is who to root for if you want the Lions to pick 12th:

Obvious:

CHI over DET

The Lions could pick as low as 18 if we win today.

We have clinched the SOS tiebreakers against Baltimore, Minnesota, and Indianapolis, so we don’t need to worry about anyone behind us in the order if we lose today.

Translation: The Lions clinch at worst the 14th pick with a loss today.

DAL over NYG

The Lions would lose the SOS tiebreaker to Dallas, but due to the tie Dallas had earlier this season, they would finish with a “better” record of 8-8-1 compared to our 8-9, so we would jump them.

ATL over NO

This one gets complicated. We need Atlanta to beat New Orleans to tie their record at 8-9. BUT, if they win, there’s still not a guarantee that we’d jump them in the draft order.

If Atlanta wins, we need four of the following five results to occur to jump them:

  • IND over HOU
  • MIN over GB
  • WAS over PHI
  • LV over KC
  • AZ over LAR

If four of those results go our way, in addition to the Atlanta win, we will gain a spot in the draft.

We gain one spot for each team we pass. To pass Dallas, we just need them to win. To pass Atlanta, we need Atlanta to win and four of those five results.

2 Likes
2

Did you really breakdown the strength of schedule permutations regarding Atlanta and the 12th pick? You sicko.

3 Likes
3

Tankathon built a thing that does it for me. :grin:

3 Likes
4

Unfortunately…. I don’t see 4 of those 5 games going the way we need them. The Raiders can’t beat a blind flag football team right now… and can’t see Philly losing to Commandos.

2 Likes
5

Given our luck we’ll be the 13th pick and the draft will be like one of those hotels without a 13th floor and they’ll just jump from 12 to 14 in the first round.

1 Like
6

Philly is resting their starters.

1 Like
7

Why? they don’t have the 2nd seed locked up, can’t the Bears get that?

8

Yeah 2 seed up for grabs but that’s what they reported on NFL Gameday.

9

.

Makes me remember the old days… especially before the Thursday night 1st round… it was almost a given that the TV coverage would go to commercial as soon as the Lions were on the clock.

3 Likes
10

They certainly can’t rest them all… and probably only need 1/2 of them to beat the Commandos.

11

Good news for the Falcons…. quite a few significant Saints inactive today…. Kamara, Olave, Bresee.

https://x.com/Saints/status/2007853340445818922?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2007853340445818922|twgr^66dc5178586f27552ee7d3a86859f7bb050a6bdb|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fnfl%2Fnews%2Fnfl-week-18-playoff-picture-draft-order-live-updates-scores%2Flive%2F

12

It reminds me of that old riddle. If a Detroit Lions draft pick is made in the middle of a commercial break and no one is able to see it, did the pick actually exist.

13

I’ll repeat something that I’m usually hounded about each year….

The difference between, say, 18 vs 13 could be the difference between a 1st round grade on a prospect and a 2nd round grade.

Reminder to everyone that the draft that landed us LaPorta and Branch was one where Brad said there were 14 players in their 1st round bucket. We lucked out.

There are also years (Ziggy draft) where there are fewer than 5 players with 1st round grades. That’s the worst draft I’ve ever seen, talent-wise.

Anyhow, just wanted to throw that out there again.

Not interested in rooting against my Lions, but moving up to top 14 is a nice consolation prize.

2 Likes
14

Good point was thinking the same thing.

15

If the Lions lose the only games remaining that matter.

Dallas over Giants

Atlanta over Saints.

Thats it. End. Lions lose they have the 14th pick. Guaranteed. Then gain 1 spot each for Dallas and Atlanta.

Id have to crunch some serious numbers to see if the can get to 11 if Miami wins. But i dont think their SOS would pass Det.

0.493 for DET. 0.485 for MIA. Its close but i doubt it

16

Yeah, according to Tankathon, Lions can’t pass Miami.

17

As bad as that draft was, Mayhew came away with Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, Larry Warford, Sam Martin and Theo Riddick. Such a strange year to turn in a strong draft class.

2 Likes
18

Agree. It ain’t gonna happen.

19

I thought I had read somewhere that there was a slim, slim slim chance the Lions could get to the 11 spot.

had to do with carolina losing but still winning the division somehow. I could very easily be wrong but thought I saw that.

Edit:
Doesn’t explain it but knew I had read it somewhere:

Mathematically, the Lions could pick as high as No. 11, but The New York Times’ 2026 NFL draft projections give the Lions less than a 1% chance to wind up with either pick No. 11 or pick No. 12.

1 Like
20

The lone good 2nd round pick for Mayhew.

Lane was picked at 4. Friggin stud.