While we’re here kicking rocks over a lost opportunity to clown the Chiefs in last year’s big dance, being a whisker away after a second half meltdown in the NFCCG, this writer’s model computes that the Lions are heavy longshots to win the SB in 2024. Less than a 1/20 chance, despite addressing some major weaknesses on defense and basically bringing back the band on offense. Are we delusional here, or is this a big pile of crap?
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Is this the same guy who forecasts Goff tanking this season?
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Got me, never heard of him. He’s got the Lions with a 70% chance of making the playoffs, but less than 5% of winning the SB. According to that math, the Lions are big time pretenders and can’t play with the big boys.
I think he needs to shake his magic 8 ball a few more times. That’s a helluva disconnect after what happened last year and the kind of offseason Brad & Co have had.
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I am no math whiz. But I bet there are fewer than ten true ‘contenders’ for the super bowl. It’s probably more like 6-7? Of course, you can have a key injury, or an unexpected team gets hot. But you can’t really plan for that preseason.
I think the Lions are in the ‘contender’ group. So, let’s say we divide 100% by 8 (7 contenders, 1 for ‘everyone else’). So, every ‘contender’ has a 12.5% chance, before accounting for differences between the contenders.
It seems odd that a team that made the NFC championship game last year, and didn’t lose any major pieces, would be a ‘below average’ contender. So, anything less than 12.5% is just kind of silly in my book.
Although, I admit, I find a lot of these ‘models’ a little ridiculous.They are trying to create order from a chaotic world (and football league).
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So it looks like this model simply acknowledges that the odds for any team to make it to the Super Bowl are low. The Lions are listed at around the 6th or 7th best overall odds out of 32 teams. So even according to this, we most definitely are one of the teams considered in contention.
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Also, these things take into account chances of winning your division as upping your odds (we have starting competition from GB)…and really odds machines ultimately mean nothing.
Well are we talking making it winning
The path to the SB is easier in the NFC
It’s winning the Superbowl, not making it. I’m definitely buying in stock of the Chiefs at 11.5%.
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what is the OP on !? This is a New more powerful and deep team and may win the majority of games with a favorable schedule. man we nearly have two Bye’s in this schedule giving us a second wind to fight the rest of the way , AND we have a chance to go 6-0 the first 6 games…
Stafford at 2.2% is one of the better buys, not touching the Eagles at 9.1%, the Ravens at 9.1%, or the Jets at 4.3%.
The Rams have seen their last hurrah for the immediate future. They are on a downward spiral. Stafford and Kupp are near $80 against the cap between them.
Kupp turns 31 prior to the season and Stafford is 36.
Rams were 7-1 after the bye last year but really stunk it up to start the season. This year they play the NFC North and the AFC East. I think the Rams are looking like a 7-9 win team.
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Right on Zeeze. That is correct.
All teams start with a 3.1% chance to win. Then some teams are better and their odds go up and done teams suck so their odds go down.
This % feels about right to me.
The Lions are a better bet than most in the league. Feels right to me.
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Better than 0% chance which is all I’ve ever known as a lions fan in my lifetime
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I do agree mathematically. But, I don’t think all teams have an equal chance at this point in the calendar year. Like, there were many, many years when I feel the Lions had less than a 3.1% chance to win the super bowl. Like, way less.
In theory, that applies to other teams too. But it is very interesting, and at least something to discuss in the slow season!
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I’d like to know what information he put in the simulator.
Winning percentage over the past 10 years?
32 nfl teams. So I’d say we got about a 3.1 percent chance. I’m no mathematician… but it’s like grade 4 Math. 
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That’s the question. He gives no details.
DVOA has been shown to more accurately portray the quality of a team, and therefore their odds for the playoffs or Super Bowl.
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Stafford is another QB that might decide to play until he’s in his late 40’s, all that is unknown…