Very true.
But that’s also a big part of a message board’s raison d’être, as it were.
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Braxton Berrios is one man down I would’ve liked to have seen added. Signed back to the Giants PS
I agree with what you said above except that Brad just seems to zone in on A guy The guy and that’s what matters.
Get that guy no matter what
Praise
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That’s part of it, for sure, but he shows real restraint when bringing our own guys back, for instance. Guys he knows fit us like gloves. AA after his first year here is a good example. We gave him a number he didn’t like, he tested FA then came crawling back on a one-year deal, balled out and got paid more. He’s shown real restraint even with guys he knows would make good Lions.
I do agree that FIT matters a ton to us, but how we go about obtaining guys that fit seem different based on avenue, and to me that’s down to him not valuing draft picks.
Of the two sides, I think the hindsight-assisted pretend GMs here who assume they’re always right need the extra humility much more than Bradley H. does.
That’s more a general slam on the insufferable whiners here, not the more nuanced discussion you, @CuriousHusker, @Thats2, and others are having. However, I do think that chalking up moves that don’t work out to ego or “not working hard enough” is unsubstantiated. It’s presumptuous as the most charitable descriptor, lazy as one that is less kind.
Do you really think this is the problem? I can’t believe that you do.
This is a far more reasonable explanation. It’s both a hypothesis that fits the facts and, I would argue, one that has a very strong justification.
I think Brad views low-round picks as having very little value over replacement. Given his ability to make cheap FA acquisitions and pretty good UDFA signings, I think that is warranted.
With the few roster slots available and even fewer playing minutes (assuming not all-time worst injury luck), the path to the Super Bowl involves improving on already-good players. The odds of that happening with 4th and 5th rounders are very long.
He’s made the calculation that it’s better to use low picks to move and get the guys he and the scouting staff have agreed have the best chance of moving the needle for the team.
Sure, that makes it less fun for mock drafters, but most of the picks traded away would never see the 53-man roster anyways.
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Yes I can see that.
But not valuing draft picks or just valuing getting the young guys we want in the draft earlier and not having to spend in free agency
To me that’s valuing the draft picks , sometimes to a fault .
Likely Tate & Moore would have been there at our pick late 2 back to back years
But Brad not risking it
This is the inflection point, I think. Exactly where those who disagree, disagree, and those who don’t, don’t. I find myself torn on the matter myself, but I’m aware that’s mostly due to my own pro-draft biases. If I was actually running every aspect of a team, I might feel differently.
It’s really hard to judge when and where guys would have been available after the draft, but I generally believe the FO’s know more than us because they simply have more information. And when it works out in our favor, we tend to be like “see, Brad new what he was doing” like with Gibbs and Jack. I think it’s very possible Moore might have gone with the next pick, despite what you hear now out of Baltimore. I have no idea on Tate.
But I also agree that because he doesn’t value those late picks, he has no problem moving up to make sure he gets his guys. But I still think it comes down to not valuing the picks.
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That’s a reasonable position, but I think you’re giving many people too much credit if you think their view is that nuanced.
What most often happens is that every pick that was traded becomes “the field” of available players. Even as biased as that is, some go even further, and just assume, “Oh, that pick would’ve been our backup center”, even when there were no good centers in the draft at that point.
That’s the nonsense that drives me batty.
I happen to agree with Brad’s philosophy, though I can understand and value alternative perspectives. You disagree, but can acknowledge the logic of the tack he’s chosen. Both are totally reasonable, and fun to discuss (IMO).
That’s a far cry from claiming Brad is a lazy egomaniac because he doesn’t do the things you want.
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To an extent like the rest of the league
Draft picks are gold during this time
Then draft day they are tossed around like Pokémon cards
In a post NIL world , day 3 of the draft isn’t the same as it was 4 or 5 years ago
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I believe that it is a problem. I can’t think of any other explanation for them expending what they did to get Martin, Manu, Vaki, and TeSlaa.
I am the furthest thing from an armchair GM. Outside of certain Big Ten teams, I probably can’t name more than a handful of guys who will get drafted outside of the first couple of rounds in any given season. I’m much more of a process guy
Every year there are guys in the later rounds who outperform - even vastly outperform - their draft positions. The Lions have found a few of these guys with McNeil, Joseph, St Brown, Barnes. Truly an astonishing achievement over only a couple of drafts. Maybe they found another this year in SGH
I do believe that after those first three drafts Holmes deviated from his formula. I can’t say why, but from my perspective he mistook success for genius. He told us for three years that he wouldn’t draft a cornerback until he found one who fit his mold, then drafted Arnold and Rakestraw. He followed those picks up with fixating on specific prospects. If his buckets had been sufficiently filled then maybe we have a few more bites at the apple and a couple more hits
It does look like ‘26 marked a return to the process where they had the most success.
I think there is a huge difference between spending a late pick to move up a few spots and mortgaging future drafts to get project players. This more than anything is where Holmes lost his way
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Oh I know, and I agree that the criticisms can often be full of lazy, fallacious social-media style attacks. I think confidence - which I think is absolutely key in a great GM - is often dismissed as arrogance, when in fact it’s simply Brad getting it wrong. Which he will do, that’s unavoidable. The best GMs are lucky to be right more than 55-60% of the time, that leaves a whole lot of wrong to pick at.
I also don’t necessarily disagree with Brad’s approach, I’m simply conflicted about it. But I’m always trying to self-scout, and cannot deny that a lot of really good teams operate the same way. I DO wish we had a plan for gaining more of the day 3 picks to play around with the way Howie and the Eagles do, but as @CuriousHusker says it’s possible we are at the start of that phase. He hasn’t really been around long enough to start playing the comp pick game with any real turnover yet.
Yep, that is an excellent point, especially for the past 2-3 drafts, and likely 1-2 more going forward. I do expect it to eventually normalize though, especially now that the extra covid year is off the books (this will be the first class completely free of it, I think).
4th round on? Otherwise it’s a silly conclusion to reach due to St. alone.
He may be drawing that conclusion on day 3 but he shouldn’t be. The sane conclusion based off on the scouting Dept.’s performance is to load up on 6th round picks. That appears to be a magical sweet spot for us.
He’s just used too many 3rd rounders to move up to not include them. I originally typed “day 3 on”, but had to check myself. (Before I wrecked myself)
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I don’t disagree, but it speaks to how little he values those picks. At least that’s what I’ve taken out of it.
I actually think there is some logic behind hollowing out that early part of day 3. If you have one of the first ten or so picks of round 4 it’s a different story but thereafter teams really seem to start taking their shots. While the breadth of quality tightens up I think this allows a similar degree of quality to last further into the day. Especially if you’ll take one some risks (injury, down final year, etc.)
Certainly that has seemed to be the case the past few drafts, but how much of that is simply based on pre-draft narratives? It’s basically impossible at this point to avoid the groupthink, the draft industry has become a juggernaut, but by day 3 especially we could all just be way, way off.
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Hasn’t been around long enough and didn’t have a roster that could afford the luxury of that approach.
The one aspect of Howie’s approach that I’ll doubt we’ll see is Howie’s willingness to punt for greater value either further down in the draft and/or in future years.