Awesome work and this is the drum I have been beating for the last month.
Good teams beat all the bad and average teams and their losses are to the good teams. It is not rocket science. Well this data and how well you organized it makes me think you may be a rocket scientist.
I think ‘beating the teams you are supposed to beat’ is crucial in the NFL. And also hard to do consistently. The margins in the NFL are smaller than it appears (particularly if you take out like the top 5 ‘best’ and ‘worst’ teams). The ‘middle 22’ teams are generally really similar in terms of talent and potential. So, a good game here or there, bad breaks, lucky bounces, etc. can skew results.
If we are counting the Lions in the ‘TOP’ group as you defined it, and we can consistently beat the ‘MID’ and ‘BAD’ teams, we will be competing for the playoffs (and hopefully making noise) for quite a while.
It’s when you lose 2-3 games per season against teams you ‘should’ beat that you really get in trouble. Because then you are scraping for wild-card berths, and have a much harder way forward in the playoffs (if you get there).
So, beat the teams you ‘should’ beat. Hang around .500 for the other games. That will get you playoff bound almost every year if you are a ‘good’ team. Then, hope things go well in the playoffs!
Right and thats kinda the idea.
Bad and mid lions should beat.
And to be a good team in the NFL you can only loose 1 MAYBE 2 games against those teams.
When healthy I think Burrow is the best QB in the NFL and I am now beginning to feel like it is not even that close. Like yeah Mahomes is good and they have won a bunch but if Burrows wins it this year they are tied. And no one is claiming Cincy has anywhere near the overall talent that KC does or did.
I also have the strong feeling that Burrows will be a 7-10 year career guy due to injures and will be one of those QBs that gets into the HOF but we will all wonder what could have been. Yeah he is that good in my eyes. This past week I almost felt bad watching Burrows dissect Buffalo. Please tell me why after watching that game anyone acts like Allen and Burrows should ever be mentioned in the same sentence (OK so I just did it).
Tier 1 - Burrows and Mahomes
Tier 2 - everyone else is lower than those 2…the order is debatable of course but the top 2 seem kind of clear.
I used to just watch any game Peyton was playing. I could watch that dude play chess out there against the other teams all day. I watched a few of his come back games because I would just sit and watch him even when they were playing poorly.
I was never quite as big of a fan of Brady. I think the difference for me was how you could clearly see Peyton would change the plays all the time at the line of scrimmage. While I never got as strong of a feel from Brady (which is likely just perception on me).
What is funny is it was much watch TV for most of Brady’s time at Tampa. At least that first year. I have to admit, the fact that he won the SB with that squad kind of cemented him in my mind that he is a top 5 all timer. Before then I had felt he was more like Montana and just part of a great system. And I know it is not juts the system. But QBs that can change teams and keep winning speaks huge for me.
You are not lying. Chase/Higgins/Smith(TE) are 3 damn good wideouts. And Boyd is no slouch. I might argue that while Chase/Higgins are very good. Hill/Waddle might have a thing or 2 to say. But I agree that it is not like Burrows is throwing to junk dudes. Higgins is legit. Someone is going to be very happy next season when they get him out of FA.