Lions trades, value and discussion

[JerseyJungle]

@Luke

It’s interesting to note it wasn’t just Brad Holmes. There was a record amount of trades in this draft. I wonder if this year was an anomaly,

I wondered that too. Or maybe technology is allowing better intelligence on what other teams are doing. But, we took it to another level. I think we used only two of our orginal picks. We may need a different type of ‘mock draft’ contest, it may be getting impossible to score on an exact draft position (e.g. 6OA) any more!

@Luke

whether front offices are simply getting more targeted in general and leaving less to chance.

For us, as @LineBusy pointed out, yes, when your roster is almost there, you can afford to be more targeted. We no longer have needs over 80% of the roster, and Brad predicted that we would be more targeted. I think another thing is that Brad is (a) just very plugged in as to what others teams are thinking and (b) has some great relationships among other GM’s, (unlike the boy among men - Quinn). The trade that pops out to me is how he worked with Gutekunst (GB) to jump NE and get Branch. Sure no one knows for sure whether Belechick wanted Branch, but Iit looks like we sniped Branch from them. Why would Green Bay, a division rival, let us do that? Because Brad knows how to approach them and is always working on his relationships with other teams. There is zero percent chance Quinn makes that trade.

[frm710]

Agree on NE, with BB relationship with Saban and type of player Branch is he is a good fit there.

Yea, Quinn always too smart for his own good.

[Luke]

@JerseyJungle

maybe technology is allowing better intelligence on what other teams are doing.

It really doesn’t seem like this is the case. It truly feels like teams have legit no idea what the others are doing. I found Peter King’s column this morning to sort of confirm that. I mean I’m sure teams make educated guesses - and he even mentioned there is a person on a computer factoring in other teams needs, tendencies, etc… but I really think the entire thing is a crapshoot.

[Phunnypharm]

@Air2theThrown

@Weaselpuppy

Blowing out those lower picks for a 6th may be an indicator of

I thought it was an indicator we were trying to win now. Blow out the low level picks and get as much top end talent as possible.

Which says to me that we’re fairly happy with our depth we just needed more top end talent.

best thing about the moves is that Holmes didn’t pull a Caserio and give up a prime pick in 2024 for a player in this draft…

[frm710]

Good point, I was hoping to add 2024 picks but he really stayed in the 2023 lane.

[Air2theThrown]

@frm710

Good point, I was hoping to add 2024 picks but he really stayed in the 2023 lane.

We added 2025 picks though.

[HiFidelity]

@frm710

would Martin be there in the fourth he was afterall a projected 6th or 7th round pick.

Not beating you up, but projected by whom? Not the Lions.

When it comes to mock drafts they are all built on faulty narratives that intersect in an incestuous way but are ultimately built on nothing. Just look at how wrong the projections were about so many players. Other than LaPorta, four of the Lions first five picks were taken either much earlier or much later than projected. This was true all over the board.

It seems clear that other than a few very specific cases (Young, Paris Johnson) even the most connected in the media only had a vague idea where guys would go.

[frm710]

I don’t disagree, thus the questioning, would he have been there at the 120something pick instead of 90somthing where they got him.

It was a lot of picks given up, I see what they like after reading here and the shrine tape, but the question is legitimate.

[JerseyJungle]

Here is Walter Footballs evaluation of our trades, and the public voting as well:

Cardinals acquire No. 6 (Paris Johnson), No. 81 (3rd) from Cardinals for Nos. 12 (Jahmyr Gibbs), 34 (2nd), 168 (5th)

Detroit was eager to move out of the No. 6 pick once the Seahawks snagged Devon Witherspoon off the board. They didn’t get as much as they could have hoped for, but they were desperate to trade down, so I don’t fault them for not being compensated for as much as they should have been.

Grade for Cardinals - A+
Grade for Lions - B
Public voting - Cards 71%, Lions 29%

Lions acquire No. 45 (Brian Branch) from Packers for Nos. 48 (traded to Buccaneers), 159 (5th)
It’s odd that the Lions and Packers engaged in a trade together, but then again, Detroit made a deal with the Vikings a year ago. The Lions won that trade, and they prevailed in this one as well. They had to leap the Patriots to land Brian Branch, who easily could have been drafted in the 20s. Detroit landed a steal in Branch and only gave up a fifth-round pick to do so. The Packers can be praised for picking up an extra fifth-round selection, but they allowed their toughest competition in the division to acquire a talented player - one who will be intercepting No Cookie Jordan Love, no doubt. This is why I’m grading the Packers poorly.

Grade for Lions - A+
Grade for Packers - D
Public: Lions 90%, Packers 10%

Chiefs acquire No. 55 (Rashee Rice), 194 (6th) from Lions for Nos. 63 (traded to Broncos), 122 (4th), 249 (7th)
If you want to count Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims, there were so many talented receivers still available at the end of the second round. With Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and Josh Downs available, there was no need for the Chiefs to move up and surrender a fourth-round pick, which is a significant resource. The Lions definitely won this trade, as they acquired an asset for free.

Grade for Chiefs - C-
Grade for Lions - A
Public: Lions 79%, Cheifs 21%

Broncos acquire No. 63 (Marvin Mims), 183 (6th) from Lions for Nos. 68 (Hendon Hooker), 138 (4th)
Brad Holmes has established himself as a fantastic draft trader thus far, and this was yet another terrific deal for Detroit. The Lions moved down five spots, picked up a significant draft choice, and still obtained the superior prospect at a more important position. The Broncos, meanwhile, didn’t need to trade up for Marvin Mims with so many talented receivers still on the board. They gave up a fourth-round pick for nothing.

Grade for Broncos - C-
Grade for Lions - A
Lions - 87%, Broncos 13%

Lions acquire No. 96 (Brodric Martin) from Cardinals for Nos. 122 (4th), 138 (5th), 168 (5th)
I loved all the trades the Lions made - until this one. They did a great job of acquiring extra resources, yet they appear to have squandered them in this deal. I don’t know why they felt as though they had to move up for Brodric Martin. He’s not a prospect who is worth three draft picks prior to the sixth round, and I’m not sure if anyone would have taken him before No. 122. Maybe I’m missing something here, but it seems like Arizona won this trade by a long shot.

Grade for Lions - D
Grade for Cardinals - A

Cardinals - 77%, Lions 23%

Overall we did good, on the last trade, its just whether you think he should have waited a little more. If there was no one else comparable as a run stopper, that enters into it as well. For me, if he waited 10 more picks he may have gotten a better WR with one of the fifth round picks. But if Martin then is off the board, he got “too cute”. Tough call.

[Lyonfan1]

Agree.

At some point we have to accept that Brad and his staff may be the BEST at identifying in outing 6th rd talent thru UDFA…

Mo I
I Darkangelo
A Martinez

All seem like great snags….

But Brandon Joseph was once rated S #1. He had a down year at ND, but he was a stud at Northwestern with 9 ints in just 20 games between 2021and Covid shortened 2020….

His long speed likely scared people as he ran a 4.7 forty…. But his short shuttle, 3 cone and vertical are almost identical to JSN- who clearly didn’t fair much better in 2022…

Joseph could be a STEAL

[frm710]

Thanks for posting.
It’s nice to see consistent positive reviews of a Lions GM three years running.

My only question, as he points out, would Martin have been there 26 spots later in the fourth round. Overall, I continue to be impressed with BH he has his mistakes as all do but seems to have more positives than negatives on draft day.

[JerseyJungle]

@frm710

Thanks for posting.
It’s nice to see consistent positive reviews of a Lions GM three years running.

My only question, as he points out, would Martin have been there 26 spots later in the fourth round. Overall, I continue to be impressed with BH he has his mistakes as all do but seems to have more positives than negatives on draft day.

yep - tough call. If he would be there, then we misplayed it. But I think Brad was probably looking at alternatives to Martin, didn’t see anyone close as a run stopper, and said the hell with it, I’m not going to get cute and am going to get my guy. I can see the logic.

[LineBusy]

@JerseyJungle

Overall we did good, on the last trade, its just whether you think he should have waited a little more. If there was no one else comparable as a run stopper, that enters into it as well. For me, if he waited 10 more picks he may have gotten a better WR with one of the fifth round picks. But if Martin then is off the board, he got “too cute”. Tough call.

The only way he gives up that much draft capital is if he anticipated Martin coming off the board, right? So we have to ask ourselves who. We jumped ahead of:
Commanders
Niners
Browns
Raiders
Vikings

The Browns went for Ika. With Schwartz there as the DC and undoubtedly converting to his “Wide 9” defense, which player makes more sense for him? I believe it is Ika. Martin isn’t a gap-attacking defender, he’s more of a gap-maintaining defender. I see a guy that can anchor the line and maintain both A-gaps, something that Schwartz doesn’t employ. He wants two guys that can play 3 tech (really, more of a 2-tech), each drawing a double team. That’s more Ika than Martin to me, but it’s with very little study of both.

Commanders have Payne and Allen.
Niners have Hargrave and Armstead.
Raiders had just taken Byron Young earlier in the 3rd, but went DT again in the 7th.

The Vikings drafted Jaguelin Roy (305 lb DT) in the 5th. This is likely who the Lions were trying to stay ahead of. At least, that’s my best guess. They obviously had a spot open on their board that they targeted in the draft. Had the Lions not traded for Martin, they may have taken him in the 3rd instead of Roy in the 5th.

[1CasanovaJack]

@Weaselpuppy

This draft was lean and light. Get your guy.

That’s how it felt to me, that esp early when Witherspoon was gone they made sure that they got their guy.

[Slay]

https://overthecap.com/ranking-the-2023-draft-day-nfl-trades-rounds-1-3 - OTC evaluation of all the trades based on pick values.

None of our trades were particularly good, the premium we gave up to get 96 was more than the premium we got for trading out of 6. Overall, the ledger was pretty balanced, we gave up the equivalent value of the 243rd pick across the five trades.

---

On the other discussion of positional value, Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks made an interesting point that ties in with what Holmes said about Gibbs being a weapon. They basically agreed that drafting a pure RB in round 1 is a bad idea, but when that player is essentially RB1 and WR2 then it is a good idea, and there is value in making that kind of selection.

[JerseyJungle]

@Slay

None of our trades were particularly good, the premium we gave up to get 96 was more than the premium we got for trading out of 6. Overall, the ledger was pretty balanced, we gave up the equivalent value of the 243rd pick across the five trades.

Thanks for posting. That article is by Fitzgerald who used the Fitzgerald trade value chart, LOL. Up above, I did this same exercise, for the Lions only, using the Rich Hill trade value chart, and we came out ahead (22 points which is the equivalent of gaining pick 123). Its all sort of conjecture i guess depending upon whose model you like.

Lions trades, value and discussion

One way to look at it is total draft capital. According to the Rich Hill chart and taking the picks in your post (I didn’t re-check), we started with 1043 “points” and ended up with 1065 points.

[JerseyJungle]

@LineBusy

We jumped ahead of:
Commanders
Niners
Browns
Raiders
Vikings

Didn’t we jump from 122 to 96…ie. a ton of other teams?

[HiFidelity]

@frm710

I don’t disagree, thus the questioning, would he have been there at the 120something pick instead of 90somthing where they got him.

It was a lot of picks given up, I see what they like after reading here and the shrine tape, but the question is legitimate.

It is and we will never really know. It could be something so simple as his agent having a good relationship with the Lions wanting him to land in a good situation with a good teaching environment.

Hey Lions. I have some intel that he won’t be there for you at 122. If you want him you’ll have to go get him.

~

Even so. Maybe Martin was a bad pick. Maybe they wasted all the capital they had accumulated on a guy who truly is a 6th rounder.

I’m a trust the process guy. BH has earned a lot of goodwill in his first two drafts. I will take the occasional Onwuzurike and Melifonwu and maybe even Jamo if it means finding a few St. Brownses, Houstons, Josephs, McNeilses

Eventually a BH draft will fall on its face. When a team is taking big swings they will have big misses. I think in the long run though, the value a team gets when they hit far exceeds a succession of safer picks

[Mr.Peabody]

@LineBusy

The Browns went for Ika. With Schwartz there as the DC and undoubtedly converting to his “Wide 9” defense, which player makes more sense for him? I believe it is Ika. Martin isn’t a gap-attacking defender, he’s more of a gap-maintaining defender. I see a guy that can anchor the line and maintain both A-gaps, something that Schwartz doesn’t employ. He wants two guys that can play 3 tech (really, more of a 2-tech), each drawing a double team. That’s more Ika than Martin to me, but it’s with very little study of both.

Ika is a 350 lbs space eater that had his 40 timed with a sun dial.

[stephenboyd57]

@Mr.Peabody

Ika is a 350 lbs space eater that had his 40 timed with a sun dial.

A sun dial, lol. Having a 350 pound nose tackle run the 40 doesn’t even make any sense.