MCDC, "I want to win now, but"

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I mean at least we know straight from the coach himself that the team is going to sit out the big names in FA.

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That’s a good thing. Lions should be jettisoning overpaid underproducing FAs if they can.

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We are going to be a very young team next year. I’m expecting several veterans (Patricia guys) to be cut to save cash.

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So they’re not resigning Golladay and Okwara?

Yup, this is the right approach. Load up on comp picks.

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Depends on how much money these guys will accept vs what offers they get. If the cap drops by 20-30 mil, then not many teams are going to pony up super big bucks for these guys. But I think the truth is that this team is not going to challenge for the playoffs this year and probably not next year either. What they need to do IMHO is build with an eye to 2023 and beyond, which means NOT signing guys to huge contracts.

BTW, I’d rather have Okwara over Golladay. I do not think Kenny will be as good with Goff as he was with Stafford. IOW, not worth the money that I think he’s asking for.

I don’t have an issue with thinking beyond this year. But the way I like to approach it, the furthest you think ahead on personnel decisions is next year. What can we do THIS year to help us make a run NEXT year. And by “run” I don’t mean Super Bowl or bust type situation. I mean aiming to be a contender with a mostly complete roster. Not a work in progress still struggling to find its identity. I think when you start thinking 3, 4 and 5 years down the road you are looking too far ahead and you never really build the urgency into the organization that’s needed to compete at the highest level.

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Agreed

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Yep. Plus hitting on Julian would be big for us and Romeo sticking around increases that likelihood IMO.

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If we only bring back two of are FA my picks would be Okwara an Davis I think last staff ruined him or limited him.\

I would in 3-4 pair him an Parson at ILB for Lions an both are you.

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hopefully, would like to see us gain some comp picks from Golladay and Jones!


wesleysh21

1h

I don’t have an issue with thinking beyond this year. But the way I like to approach it, the furthest you think ahead on personnel decisions is next year. What can we do THIS year to help us make a run NEXT year. And by “run” I don’t mean Super Bowl or bust type situation. I mean aiming to be a contender with a mostly complete roster. Not a work in progress still struggling to find its identity. I think when you start thinking 3, 4 and 5 years down the road you are looking too far ahead and you never really build the urgency into the organization that’s needed to compete at the highest level.

I like the idea of setting a goal for the team to compete in the playoffs in 2-3 years, and make a plan to give the team the best chances for that to happen. This roster has zero chance to complete with top teams in 2021, and likely won’t get there by 2022. There isn’t enough cap space or draft picks this year to change that fact.

I do think the plan needs to start with changes that are made now that work towards 2023.

Drop bad contracts now so the dead money is off the books by 2022.

#1 - Desmond Trufant. Is 31yo only signed for 2021. Cutting him costs $6 mill in dead money, but creates $6.2 mill in cap space. Go younger and carry that money saved into 2022.

#2 - Nick Williams. DT is 31yo and only signed thru 2021. Cut costs $1 mill in dead money, saves $4.65 mill on the cap.

#3 - Jesse James. Cut costs $4.3 mill in dead money, but save $6.5 mill over next 2 years.

#4 - Chase Daniel. Cut costs $3 mill in dead money, but saves $7.3 mill over 2 years.

These 4 cuts would save about $24.5 million on the cap over 2 years.
Since these players are highly unlikely to still be Lions in 2023 (and won’t result in good comp picks if they leave via free agency rather than cut), I would add 4 young players in draft or on cheaper deals and carry that money into future years beyond 2021.

After 2021, the Lions will have to make decisions on Flowers, Collins, and Vaitai.
It doesn’t help them to cut them this year, but they have big salaries that can be shed in 2022 if they don’t play well this season.

As far as free agency, this will be a strange year due to salary cap reduction.
I expect a lot of 1 year deals for established free agents looking for big contracts.

For example, Golladay may not get the long-term deal with a lot of guaranteed money he would like.
I wouldn’t give him that deal for Detroit, but I would definitely consider a 1 year deal.
This would give the Lions a chance to extend him if things look good with Goff, or still get a good comp pick if he left in 2022 free agency.

If Golladay does re-sign on a 1 year deal, that opens up another free agent strategy.
The Lions could use some of that money saved by cutting the players mentioned above to sign more players to 1 year deals, and that increase odds of getting comp picks in 2022 if they leave in free agency following the 2021 season. This can be risky though, because the player has to play well enough earn the comp pick. However, the cap reduction might make some decent players available unexpectedly this year.

I agree, good WR’s are always coming out in the draft and in later rounds. With the right person assessing the talent they can be found. The defense needs work and signing Okwara would help in that means.

I can see Okwara signing somewhere for $10 million a year, Golladay for $18 million per and Jones for $12 million per… On the contrary, I don’t see the lions paying any free agent anywhere near those amounts in this coming off season. That should result in a couple compensatory picks in next year’s draft.

If we can’t compete by 2022 then we’ve hired the wrong guy

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wesleysh21

24m

If we can’t compete by 2022 then we’ve hired the wrong guy

I hope I am wrong, but this is not going to be easy to turn around quickly.
BQ really messed this situation up royally with free agent moves and terrible drafts.

In 2021, the Lions are already over the cap with current contracts.
There are 4 players that can be cut to provide decent relief (James, Trufant, Daniel, Williams).

In 2022, the Lions have less than 25 players under contract, and they already account for $144.5 million. That is a lot of players to add that will count against the cap.

One player not counting towards the 2022 cap number is Frank Ragnow, who needs to be extended or franshised to keep him here in 2022. That hurts. One of the few pro-bowl talents on the roster is not even counted against that 2022 cap number!

They have players like Flowers, Collins, Coleman, and Vaitai that could be cut to provide relief.
The bad news is that Flowers and Vaitai both result in almost as much dead money as cap savings (over $15 mill dead combined if cut after 2021). Cutting all 4 would cost over $21.5 million in dead money for 2022, while saving $33 million in cap space.

The Lions are not very likely to be able to spend big money on free agents in next 2 years.

On the draft side, the Lions currently have 5 picks in top 103 picks in 2021.
In 2022, they currently have 5 picks likely in top 110-115 picks. They may add another if Golladay leaves in free agency, but this also requires the Lions to NOT sign any big free agent deals that would offset his loss.

So… the challenge for the Lions to turn around in 2 years is huge.
They need to build through the draft to improve the salary cap situation.
They have contracts that are tough to get out of in 2021,
This means a lot of new faces in 2022.

If they force the issue with a bunch of free agent spending, they will end up with cap issues once again.

I hope to see the Lions be patient like Indy and Buffalo have been. Build in the draft. Poach young guys off practice squads or cheap free agents to fill out the roster. When there are signs of a solid core that can truly complete for division titles, then start to get a little more aggressive in free agency or trades to make move. I think 2023 is the earliest the Lions could have a deep, competitive roster.

We can turn this around in two offseasons if Goff can be fixed. Hypothetically, let’s say we prioritize offense with the mindset of fixing Goff. Let’s say ARob comes on the market. I think we can get him to come back home. Now let’s say we add Smith at 7.

That leaves three picks to improve the defense plus likely some modest depth signings.

We’d have to luck out a bit on the OL but the following could be the core of a really potent offense:

Goff
Swift
ARob
D. Smith
Hock

Then we finish fixing the defense and shoring up the OL in ‘22. We could do the complete opposite as well. But two well executed off seasons can definitely get us back to a Wild Card level of play if we can fix Goff.

$25 bucks

Went up today. I might jump on this train.

Plus get a comp pick if he leaves.