As always - there is almost zero reason to get excited or upset about a draft. Drafts from three years ago are about the most recent that one can make a salient comment regarding
There’s no such thing as a player falling in the draft.
To properly evaluate a player’s talent, you want to be watching at least 500 snaps. And that will involve replaying from different angles to observe footwork, precision, timing, what else was going on in the play etc, and making notes. So let’s call it a minute for each play. 500 plays is 8+ hours. Just on the talent part. 8+ hours is a full working day. There are 260 working days in a year. Do we believe that anyone in draft media spent one full working day looking at Keith Abney? Let’s be honest, after the top 100 guys draft media is barely watching 30 minutes of film and they’re copying and rearranging each other’s homework.
An NFL front office has 30+ people working full time on scouting and evaluating college prospects. They’re watching way more than 500 snaps of each player.
An NFL front office has access to medical information, physical testing, references, interviews etc that draft media does not.
An NFL front office has access to much more in depth and useful data analysis than draft media.
An NFL front office probably does at least 10 times the work that anyone in draft media does on the top prospects, and that factor will be in the hundreds when it gets to day 3 guys.
If 32 NFL front offices, having much more information and doing 10 to 100 times more work on each player than your favorite draft media analyst, all pass on a player multiple times, he didn’t “fall” in the draft, draft media clearly had it wrong.
The comparison is all wrong, we should use what the NFL did to grade draft media, not the other way around.
I love the ARSB draft pick, because we sat right there and got a guy that produced against high level comp, not injury prone, and was a motivated player
We didn’t trade away future 3rd round picks as if they were meaningless, or take a flyer on a Juco guy from Kazakhstan because he has a great wingspan garbage nonsense.
There’s literally thousands examples of why this is wrong, sorry.
Aside from the media side of the grading, teams have different evals on each player and that player has to fit that teams scheme.
For example, theres roughly a 50-50 chance that any pick is offense or defensive pick, theres 32 teams, so for arguments sake 16 picks each round on offense or defense. Team needs come into play and positional importance. Not all of those teams need a Mike linebacker, so a player can easily have a late 2nd round grade and not get picked until round 4.
In today’s college landscape, with the ability to transfer at will once you dominate lower level competition… It’s an even bigger risk to take the “measurables” guy from a small school. If they were so good, they would’ve transfered to increase their exposure (like TeSlaa)